Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[asat91] 06/12/2017 10:21

Unfortunately hamham I think a 'double boost' in the month of results is super unlikely because there will be no rush from IMM if the results are strong positive. We may be waiting many months after results for a deal!

IMM will run out of cash in late 2018 so imagine that will be their internal deadline to have a deal + upfront payment tied down. So the latest we will be waiting is probably to mid/late 2018.

[professor bang bang] 06/12/2017 10:12

Mr McCarthy said they are already in discussions and some companies will come forward with offers before the results and some will come afterwards.If IMM are expecting good results they will wait for them to be releazed before doing a deal as companies will put more money on the table and they will extract more value that way.

[ny boy] 06/12/2017 10:08

Low volume day, watch a few get mugged and sit back and wait for any decent adding opportunities or for new investors buying opportunities.

[hamhamham1] 06/12/2017 10:05

Maybe IMM have already agreed to partner with a particular company? If so, I guess the deal will hinge on good results in the phase 3 study. Again, if so, I would have thought a partnership announcement would come within days of the publishing of the results (if not on the same day)? Giving a double boost - to whatever level? :)

[ny boy] 06/12/2017 10:00

herdy..I am in the 150/175p before news on phase 3 trial results, then if all good 225/250p before FDA ..if approved,anything from 500p-2000p, then big pharma take out £10-£30+ could be much higher, no one knows yet.

Anyone selling now is just getting mugged, it’s a buy, hold and wait until the main events Q1 - 2018

[asat91] 06/12/2017 09:55

Hamham if by playing out better you mean reaching more patients and being adopted by the medical community, from a marketing point of view yes I would imagine lupuzor would get more free press coverage in the EU and france leading to a quicker uptake in these countries.

Having said that if a US company is the one to partner with IMM that would be a massive boost as US companies tend to have further reaching tentacles. So the combo of an EU base and US marketer could be strong.

On a side note I have looked for some statistics on the number of lupus sufferers residing in the EU alone and not been very successful!

[herdy3] 06/12/2017 09:19

money maker, hottingup, ballsac, top tips, ny boy - can i have some of the happy juice you guys are on please. Like the look of IMM but £200 - really?!!!

[hamhamham1] 06/12/2017 09:06

Daring to slightly change subject from the hotly disputed level of gazillionaires soon to be created here. I believe that Lupuzor has its registered base in the ImmuPharma France business? If this is the case, it will probably play out better (within EU) over the next couple of years? Any comments?

[qazwsxedc69] 06/12/2017 08:57

It is always useful to see how many tick ups you get "money maker", it allows me to keep track of how many different monikers you are operating under.

[money maker1] 06/12/2017 08:34

If you take Tim McCarthy's recent reference to Lupuzor being a "multi-billion drug" as meaning lupus sales of at least $2 billion pa, then reading across from Gilhead's recent cash buyout of Kite for $11.9 billion in expectation of year 2022 sales of $1.7 billion, that implies the value of $2 billon pa Lupuzor sales for lupus would give a buyout price for IMM of at least $13.99 billion or £80 a share. The figure goes up even more if you add in other indications for Lupuzor P140, of which there are at least 10.


money maker1
5 Dec '17 - 18:43 - 6803 of 6811 6 0 Edit

If Gilead paid $11.9 billion cash in 2017 to acquire Kite's axi-cel on predicted sales of $1.7 billion by 2022, Lupuzor could be worth a lot more for lupus and the 10+ other indications it could address. Deals like this just prove the value of Lupuzor if the Phase 3 results are successful. This is not ramping just rational analysis.

Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman) Presentation, 14/3/2017:

"There's going to be a fantastic return on investment for anybody who invests in ImmuPharma...This (Lupuzor) is going to be a multi-billion dollar drug, its as simple as that...This will absolutely be a multi-billion dollar drug."

4 min 40 sec.


Its not just me saying this. Its IMM themselves and precedents for such valuations are emerging all the time in the sector.

[divmad] 06/12/2017 06:16

luminoso, are you saying you disagree with S_K's spreadsheet-based share price projections, on a successful outcome?

[l0ngterm] 05/12/2017 22:34

1st world problems eh!! We will 5x bag, then will it be 3x or 40x on top?Think all should just wait and see.I am taking solace in the fact that, the debate is how many multiples. :-)In 3 months we will all know results and price, end of, and All agree rises in the interim.So spare a thought for the sufferers in between, as the majority of investors seem to have less to worry about each day here.

[lukead] 05/12/2017 22:32

And what's your take luminaso, on how things will pan out, I'd be interested to know

[luminoso] 05/12/2017 22:07

Jeez, the endless posting of ridiculous valuations, several times a day, by people who would never remain holders up to that level anyway, is seriously tiresome. I applaud the valiant efforts of a few to instil a bit of realism but its not worth the effort, lads. The concert party just rally around to attack you as 'derampers' and 'trolls', even though you are more likely to stay long in this share than any of them. Best ignore rather than engage and let them talk to themselves. Then we might get some of the sensible long termers posting here again.

[englishlongbow] 05/12/2017 21:41

IMM does not have any debt. UKOG is an oil company in a completely different sector. No read across.

[arcadian] 05/12/2017 20:48

Herschel

You are right to urge caution on rushing to valuations based on what we know now but it`s good to dream. Ask any UKOG holder.

Companies don`t always sell for their perceived worth, however that is calculated. So much depends on the apportionment of the shares held, whether small shareholders can affect the outcome, and the real deal i.e. the terms offered to the current directors
not to mention debt and its terms. e.g. ToyRUS wrote off a £585 million loan just before its current state.

[flavio_monteiro] 05/12/2017 19:00

The big advantage if P140 works as well as other drugs in these additional indicators is....No side effects. This is a Huge Advantage.

[perfect pete] 05/12/2017 18:48

W1ndjammer is your avatar a remnant from earlier COVE days?

[money maker1] 05/12/2017 18:43

If Gilead paid $11.9 billion cash in 2017 to acquire Kite's axi-cel on predicted sales of $1.7 billion by 2022, Lupuzor could be worth a lot more for lupus and the 10+ other indications it could address. Deals like this just prove the value of Lupuzor if the Phase 3 results are successful. This is not ramping just rational analysis.

Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman) Presentation, 14/3/2017:

"There's going to be a fantastic return on investment for anybody who invests in ImmuPharma...This (Lupuzor) is going to be a multi-billion dollar drug, its as simple as that...This will absolutely be a multi-billion dollar drug."

4 min 40 sec.


Its not just me saying this. Its IMM themselves and precedents for such valuations are emerging all the time in the sector.

[asat91] 05/12/2017 18:38

Ballsac pay me double what Sanofi are paying and I'll copy and paste hottingup's essay every day for the next 3 months.

[ballsac] 05/12/2017 18:35

hottingup
19 Oct '17 - 13:17 - 68 of 77 1 0
More evidence of the $billions pharmas are willing to pay for new blockbuster drugs (extract):


Why Did Kite Pharma (KITE) Stock Skyrocket Today?
August 28, 2017
Benjamin Rains

Shares of cancer treatment drug maker Kite Pharma soared on Monday morning after Gilead Sciences officially announced it would purchase the company for a substantial premium.

Gilead is set to pay roughly $11.9 billion in an all-cash deal to acquire Kite and its innovative cancer drug, which aims to make the patient's own immune cells fight-off cancerous tumors.

Gilead’s $180 a share purchase marks a 29% premium from Kite’s Friday close...

...Gilead made it clear in its official announcement that the Kite purchase is designed to diversify its drug offerings. However, the Kite acquisition won’t become neutral in terms of earnings until the third year of the deal, according to Gilead...

...According to some analysts, Kite’s axi-cel sales could reach $1.7 billion by 2022, which would rank the drug within the top 10 in the industry in terms of sales potential.

...Shares of Kite skyrocketed from $45.95 a share in early January to $179.69 per share on Monday. Kite is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)...



--------------------------

If $1.7 bn potential sales in 5 years time = $11.9 bn all cash offer today, the Kite offer is currently valuing each $1 bn of future year 2022 sales at $7 bn market capitalisation in a buyout!

Applied to IMM:

Assuming minimal $1 billion sales of Lupuzor = $7 billion buyout price = £39 share price. We also know Lupuzor could achieve even higher sales and treat several blockbuster indications, and there are other potential blockbuster drugs in the IMM pipeline.

[ballsac] 05/12/2017 18:33

Some excellent research originally posted by hottingup:


List of largest pharmaceutical mergers and acquisitions

Plenty of money in the pharma sector to pay billions for aquisitions (successful or unsuccessful):

[ballsac] 05/12/2017 18:32

(Wrong thread)

[ballsac] 05/12/2017 18:21

herschel - The way i see it when i look at a valuation is the small royalty payable to CNRS is more than offset by the extra value added to Lupzor P140 by virtue of it being far superior to Benlysta for treating lupus, Lupuzor being applicable to multiple high value indications (unlike Benlysta) and the fact we have reached this point with comparatively few IMM shares in issue or awaiting issue. I am simply looking at the bigger picture. Hopefully we are all moving in the same direction overall.