Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[ballsac] 05/12/2017 18:11

asat which of the parties interested in buying Lupuzor or the company is paying you to try to talk the company down? Troll.

[topdiesel] 05/12/2017 17:45

asat...the same lot was/is predicting 8-10 pound by Christmas. Such a ridiculous price within 20 days now. Don't see those predictions as often as we did last month.

[asat91] 05/12/2017 17:27

Che7win I'm thinking that £300mill-£500mill market cap late Feb seems most likely as well since we have 3 months at least before results are released, but it is hard to predict.

All depends on supply / demand

[asat91] 05/12/2017 17:21

Yes top tips they own 85%.

If they do a partnership type deal they will probably split their share close to 50% of that so 40%ish ownership in the end.

No-one is trying to tear down what you lot are repeatedly posting, just considering all possibilities.

The problem most have with your 'crews' posts are that they seem blind to the potential risks. It's simply tiring to see the same long post again and again which is far too optimistic; suggesting that £60 a share is definite and will happen immediately. That's not how stock prices work, and I can promise you that the price DEFINITELY won't be £60 on a positive result Feb/Mar, so put the calculator down for now ;-)

[che7win] 05/12/2017 17:14

Market cap on fully diluted basis only £172.3m

I'm thinking we should triple over the next couple of months to around £500m before announcement?

With the potential here, the upside outweighs downside risks right now IMHO.

[herschel k] 05/12/2017 17:12

top tips,

what about the 15% royalty to CNRS?

H

[volsung] 05/12/2017 17:11

£40 a share not going to happen. £10 a share well within bounds of possibility

[hamhamham1] 05/12/2017 17:08

Hot tips. Ok let's just see what the share price is when IMM release the phase 3 data. If on that day the market cap is the region of $7.2bn (£40 per share) then I will acknowledge your call. If however it's well below £10 a share then I trust you will do the same?

[top tips] 05/12/2017 16:57

IMM own 100% of Lupuzor, not 50%.

[top tips] 05/12/2017 16:56

50% for $3.6bn = 100% for $7.2 billion

[herschel k] 05/12/2017 16:34

top tips,

but it's based on Benlysta.

you have no idea in that deal how much value GSK placed on the other HGS drugs/research in the pipeline.

I think it's also worth mentioning that the eventual offer was WAY BELOW the share price that HGS reached - something that appears to be conveniently missed from the calculations I have seen on here by others; for example (and this is in no way a criticism of the poster below):

hottingup5 Dec '17 - 14:16 - 6764 of 6785 4 1
In Mar 2009, HGSi shares (on their 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta) were $0.45, becoming $3.23 (market cap $528m) early Jul 2009 just before PIII Benlysta results, $12.51 (market cap of $2 billion+) at close on results day late Jul 2009, and $34.49 ($6.46 billion market cap, as there was also some dilution) at peak in Apr 2010 = 76x return over 13 months from peak low to peak high. (Source: Poster 'sicilian_kan', L-S-E, 8/7/2017)

IMM have 100% ownership of Lupuzor and the platform, not 50%, so you could double up the above figures.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

The eventual take-out price was $14.25, or just 41.3% of the peak share price reached in April 2010.

However, the above post seems to suggest that the $34.49 valuation is the one we should use.

If anything, it merely demonstrates that in HGS's case, the share price overshot itself massively before a realistic takeout was agreed in April 2012.

Also worth bearing in mind that HGS's share price was just $7.17 in April when the offer was first made by GSK (at a 99% premium at the time) - or 20.7% of the peak.

As I say, some perspective needed IMO.

H

[greedfear] 05/12/2017 16:21

No one knows. It's all possible.

[top tips] 05/12/2017 16:18

Herschel posters like hottingup, money maker and ballsac have stated the basis for their valuations which all check out if you look closely at what they are saying and no one so far as i can see has been able to dismantle what they have said.

[ny boy] 05/12/2017 16:10

They have seduced a few into selling over the time when I first started buying at just over 50p. All those punters have either moved on or if fortunate learnt from their mistakes and bought again but this time to hold, all three way through the process.

[hamila01] 05/12/2017 16:10

Asat, Butler, Herschel - all bang on the money here. We really don't know what an eventual price could be. It comes down to what a prospective purchaser thinks the drug and P140 platform is worth to them.And we'll know what the share price will be when the BOD see a valuation they are happy with but I hope it at least starts with a 4 and ends with a 0. BWTFDIK or any of us for that matter! :-)

[davew28] 05/12/2017 16:09

I guess the valuation question comes down to what happens to the company post results and how good (or bad) the results are. If the 2B results are maintained or bettered and there is a clear indication that the drug is efficacious in a high percentage of the sample then obviously it has potential for a greater reach and higher market penetration and thus value. Also, at this stage it depends on how the company then wishes to proceed and will consider the options and their value. Obviously an immediate takeover will provide the biggest initial uplift, especially if they have multiple pharmas bidding. If they chose the partnership route then it might take longer for value to be realised but in the long term (with proven multiple indication efficacy) this will probably deliver significantly higher returns for shareholders. It really comes down to the ambitions of the BOD and the efficacy of the drug.

[butler4] 05/12/2017 15:49

Both hamilao1 and englishlongbow make very good cases for being cautious yet seeing potential for massive price increase - its all speculation at the moment and none us will have anything to work on until late January - I have been a holder for 24 months - have been on the point of selling many times but now holding till the end. With pharma trials it so speculative and we can only wait and see - some excellent posts on here and keeps tabs on a daily basis

[blackbear] 05/12/2017 15:37

NY Boy I think we will get an update in December when the last patient is dosed.

[ny boy] 05/12/2017 15:21

Crazy someone sold 30k , fools... we are going higher each week as we get nearer to phase3 trial completion etc probably late January, less than 40 trading days, allowing for Xmas/NY hols.

[englishlongbow] 05/12/2017 15:12

hamila - yes here are a few examples of how things have moved on since 2012:

1) Drug markets even bigger.
2) Inflation in the last 5 years.
3) Pharmas willing to pay more for drugs or takeovers.
4) Pharmas desperate for new drugs and platforms.
5) Markets in China and India opening up.
6) Falling Pound makes it cheaper for a US takeover.
7) Lupuzor produced the best ever Phase 2b data of any lupus drug, and way better than Benlysta.
8) Lupuzor tested positive in several other indications.
9) Lupuzor granted new patent for most autoimmune diseases, across global markets, until 2032. Non-autoimmune patent pending.
9) FDA eager to speed up approvals.
10) Lupuzor granted "gold standard" SPA and "Fast Track" status.

All works in IMM's favour.

[asat91] 05/12/2017 15:11

Yes Hamila spot on.

Good to see you again HK, more posting from you would be welcome!

I imagine the recent devaluation of the pound might benefit IMM in any potential future deals as they will seem cheaper to US pharmas.

[ny boy] 05/12/2017 15:04

Over 4 times buying to selling, we will soon move higher

[herschel k] 05/12/2017 15:03

couldn't agree more hamila.

H