Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[hamila01] 05/12/2017 15:02

Basing a valuation on something that happened 5 years ago is extremely flawed. Each offer made will be dependent on a lot of factors, some of which aren't necessarily financial.Ultimately it comes down to what one party wants to offer the other party and what the other party are prepared to offer. It's a negotiation at the end of the day and what will come into the suitors reasoning will be the financial value that Lupozor offers and not the inflation effect.The offer merits will be in the here and now and not what the situation was in 2012!!!

[top tips] 05/12/2017 14:46

Obviously valuations of Lupuzor should increasingly focus not just on lupus but widened use in other indications in addition to lupus so opening up even larger markets..

[top tips] 05/12/2017 14:39

Lupuzor for lupus should be on the market generating sales revenues next year. Sylvianne Muller said trials of Lupuzor for other indications could go straight into Phases 2b or 3 because safety has already been established and even she called the pre-clinical results 'impressive'. All this will make it a lot more valuable and attractive to big pharmas. HGSi's Benlysta was no where near as good as Lupuzor, which is in a different league. Its not just a blockbuster drug but a super blockbuster drug.

[ny boy] 05/12/2017 14:31

sportbilly..yes BLU (Blue Star Capital), should go to over 1p over the next few months. GL i’m hoping for a few years to see how the Blockchain story plays out, same with VELA too.

Here a few small sellers are getting mugged off, most are buying & holding, there won’t be a lot of stock around, next leg up will free some more stock but more buys than sells each day is eating into the free float of available shares.

[kensingtoncourt] 05/12/2017 14:29

The approach by money maker and hottingup backed up by the precedent of HGSI and adding something for other indications seems about right.

[topdiesel] 05/12/2017 14:29

One thing for sure. Looking back over this thread in 18 months will be entertaining. Some folks might need to use different handles. Who will it be? Some will look like fools and others will look like very wise investors.

[asat91] 05/12/2017 14:22

You cannot simply 'double up' the above figures. A lot of share price movement is about profit taking and portfolio management NOT the market cap.

The share price is more likely to follow in the same ratio if successful. So HGSi improved 24 fold from 0.5 lowest pre-results to 12 on positive read out; comparatively IMM was 0.26 at it's lowest, so a 24 fold increase from there to a positive read out would be £6 per share.

Also worth noting that HGSi already had GSK on board which is A BIG DEAL. Small companies cannot go it alone and need to be in partnership with a big pharma to make things work.

Even if eventually IMM or the rights to lupuzor is bought for £billions that market cap will not happen immediately even with positive trial results.

[hottingup] 05/12/2017 14:16

In Mar 2009, HGSi shares (on their 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta) were $0.45, becoming $3.23 (market cap $528m) early Jul 2009 just before PIII Benlysta results, $12.51 (market cap of $2 billion+) at close on results day late Jul 2009, and $34.49 ($6.46 billion market cap, as there was also some dilution) at peak in Apr 2010 = 76x return over 13 months from peak low to peak high. (Source: Poster 'sicilian_kan', L-S-E, 8/7/2017)

IMM have 100% ownership of Lupuzor and the platform, not 50%, so you could double up the above figures.

If Lupuzor can treat not only lupus but also other high value indications, and do it well, it will be worth even more. That is a logical conclusion.

From IMM's updated website:



A shift in treating auto-immune disease

"This targeted approach marks a paradigm shift in treating autoimmune disease. Instead of shutting down otherwise healthy immune responses the T-cells are suppressed leaving the immune system modified but intact."

Autophagy represents a key pathway

"Autophagy represents a key pathway that is targeted by the P140/Lupuzor™ peptide. Defects in this complex process underlie many types of diseases, including autoimmune, many inflammatory diseases, and degenerative neurological illnesses (e.g. Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s diseases), and aging. Thus, therapeutic agents such as P140/Lupuzor™, are unique molecules that may significantly slow down or correct the course of such diseases and considerably improve the quality of the life of patients."



Forigerimod/PI40 targeting major auto-immune disease indications

"ImmuPharma together with Professor Sylviane Muller, Lupuzor’s inventor, have presented new evidence supporting Lupuzor’s™ Forigerimod / P140 peptide activity in several other major auto-immune disease indications outside of Lupus including Rheumatoid Arthritis, Crohn’s Disease, and Asthma. In particular, the peptide appears to have general effects against chronic inflammatory indications. Other pre-clinical evidence supports the molecule’s use in: Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE); Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS); and Guillain-Barre disease (chronic/CIDP)."

Lupuzor™ Symposium
8th June 2016 - 3:35 pm

41 min 40 sec onwards:


Indications with promising data:
- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (SLE ends Phase 3, Q1 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease ($520m)
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations:
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)
- (Others to follow)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

[asat91] 05/12/2017 14:10

Hamham has not misunderstood at all.

He is suggesting that upon approval, the market will not immediately value IMM at $7bill.

He is correct. With no large pharma partner yet, there are still steps that will need to happen after positive results / approval to get near a multi-billion market cap.

£500mill market cap pre-results and £1-2billion market cap post-results & approval is more achievable and realistic. In fact I would say these would be incredible share price increases. a 2 or 3-fold improvement in the share price over the next 3 months would be an outstanding performance by anyone's standards.

Even if everything you say is true, it will take time to run trials in other indications - it will not be immediate.

[money maker1] 05/12/2017 14:05

hamhamham you seem to have misunderstood the GSK HGSi deal and my valuation. GSK bought HGSi in 2012 for $3.6 billion, to get HGSi's 50% stake in their lupus drug Benlysta. That effectively valued 100% of Benlysta at $7.2 billion, or call it $7 billion because HGSi also had a few other drugs in the pipeline.

£7 billion roughly equates to an IMM share price of £40.

However the expectation is that IMM's Lupuzor will be more efficaceous and safer than Benlysta, making it worth more than Benlysta. In addition there is evidence Lupuzor should be able to treat several other high value indications, also making it worth more than Benlysta.

Consequently I suggest a value for IMM, if Lupuzor passses Phase 3 for lupus and could be used in at least five other indications, of £60 to £100.

[hamila01] 05/12/2017 13:41

qazwsxedc69 - yes, embarrassed is a very succinct way of putting it.I'd love to see £60+ a share on a takeover like the rampathon crowd keep repeating but it's still an AIM share (just look at the MTFB price currently to see the fun and games going on) so we should all keep our feet very firmly planted on the ground....

[spawny100] 05/12/2017 13:28

o/t good calls on BLU and VELA ty NYBoy

[qazwsxedc69] 05/12/2017 13:26

Good post Hamila. Very obvious that the well informed LTHs have gone to ground. Suspect they are embarrassed at some on the antics on this board. I know I often am these days.

[sportbilly1976] 05/12/2017 13:10

NYB,

BLU - Blue Star Capital? 0.5p

[hamila01] 05/12/2017 12:59

hamhamham1 - from one ham to another, I certainly don't think you're trashing the share, just being realistic and conservative unlike some of the ridiculous estimates we see getting posted.Sorry guys but repeatedly posting the same valuations don't make them true or achievable.... IMM will get taken out well before the share gets to £60....And it's a real shame we see this incessant repeating of the same blurb because I feel that some of the highly respected posters are now keeping a low profile.GLA LTH's!

[ny boy] 05/12/2017 12:39

Good post Kensingtoncourt..I didn’t realize that, certainly shaping up to be a special one, anything that is beneficial to Lupus, Asthma sufferers etc has got to be a good thing.

[hamhamham1] 05/12/2017 12:37

Remember GSKs offer was at a 100% premium to the share price at the time. So the whole company/product market price for was only $3.6bn before the bid. And if IMM was comparable to this then it would be worth the same $3.6bn after FDA approval. Or net of 15% CRNS's cut, IMM worth $3.06bn (£2.28bn). Divide that by number of shares = £17.23 a share. This I think would be the share value post FDA approval and pre and potential takeover bid. Again just my thoughts - and just based upon delivered drugs, but its hard to value other back burners. Time will tell over the next few months, just please don't think I am trying to trash the share, I am just basing my calculations upon previous figures.

[kensingtoncourt] 05/12/2017 12:31

tt thanks for reposting my comment about Lupuzor treating asthma. I was absolutley blown away when i listened to Prof Mullers presentation and she described the results and showed the evidence on charts for five markers.

the asthma market size if five or six times larger than lupus. Results like this are not down to chance. Something very special is happening here. I really think this will be the drug every pharmaceutical company will want.

[ny boy] 05/12/2017 12:29

A few weak holders sold for 128p got mugged now 129.5 to sell, mad selling out imho, we haven’t even entered the frantic trading activity later in January onwards.

Plenty of buyers hoovering up more stock, ready for a move up this week to fresh levels.

[money maker1] 05/12/2017 12:25

£60 to £100.

[money maker1] 05/12/2017 12:25

IMM will be worth a lot more than £7 billion if Lupuzor passes Phase 3. CNRS get a small slice of profits on sales from whoever takes Lupuzor to market, nothing more. Only shareholders get a slice of a takeover bid price.

[hamhamham1] 05/12/2017 12:16

Passing phase 3 doesn't mean its worth $7.2bn. Lupazor hasn't been submitted let alone got FDA approval at that stage. Plus don't forget CNRS will also take a cut (15%?) so the company will be worth 15% less - ie not 100% of income stays with IMM. Thats my view anyway.

[top tips] 05/12/2017 12:12

Don't forget to add this:

Lupuzor revenues could be huge:

40,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $1 billion pa revenue
50,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $1.25 billion pa revenue
100,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $2.5 billion pa revenue
150,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $3.75 billion pa revenue
250,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $6.25 billion pa revenue
500,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $12.5 billion pa revenue
750,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $18.75 billion pa revenue
1,000,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $25 billion pa revenue
1,250,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $31.25 billion pa revenue

40,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $1.2 billion pa revenue
50,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $1.5 billion pa revenue
100,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $3 billion pa revenue
150,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $4.5 billion pa revenue
250,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $7.5 billion pa revenue
500,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $15 billion pa revenue
750,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $22.5 billion pa revenue
1,000,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $30 billion pa revenue
1,250,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $37.5 billion pa revenue

"There are approximately 5 million patients across the world that suffer from lupus...from a commercial perspective we could probably target 1.5 to 2 million of those sufferers in what I call the commercial markets - North America, Europe, Far East...looking at the economics...this is a drug that would probably sell at around $25,000 to $30,000 per year per patient..." (Tim McCarthy, IMM Chairman - Stocktube, Sep 2017)

-------

kensingtoncourt
4 Dec '17 - 21:06 - 6725 of 6748 3 0

So they tested the anti-asthmatic effects of Lupuzor in mice and found it had beneficial effects on five markers associated with the disease including a 71% reduction in neutrophils - described by Prof Muller as "really impressive". Asthma market size already $20.7 billion in 2015.

[hottingup] 05/12/2017 12:09

On the basis we assume Lupuzor passes Phase 3 in Q1 2018 then any valuation of Lupuzor / P140 must start as a minimum with the $3.6 billion paid in 2012 by GSK to acquire HGSi's 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta - effectively valuing 100% of Benlysta at $7 billion - equating to an IMM share price around £40.

To that $7 billion (£40) should then be added something for inflation during what in 2018 will then be the last 6 years since 2012; Lupuzor (I assume) being more efficaceous, having less or no side effects, being cheaper to produce and more comfortable to administer, than Benlysta; use in other multiple indications (including off label and on label) some of which have market sizes many times larger than for lupus; new patent granted to 2032 in key countries (USA, EU, China, India and Japan) covering Lupuzor and its use in the treatment of the majority of autoimmune diseases such as Sjogrens syndrome, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn's, CIDP, Guillan-Barre disease (announced 27/9/2017); and a new patent recently filed (2017) to cover non-autoimmune indications.

Consequently the value of Lupuzor in Q1 2018 should be much higher than $7 billion (potentially multiples) and the share price much higher than £40.

N.B.
Lupuzor™ Symposium
8th June 2016 - 3:35 pm

41 min 40 sec onwards -


Data from IMM suggests Lupuzor / P140 may be able to treat several blockbuster autoimmune and non-autoimmune diseases, including:

- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (SLE ends Phase 3, Q1 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations:
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

[ny boy] 05/12/2017 12:06

There you go a big chunk of buys hoovered up some weak sellers, quite deceptive this one, they are manipulating the price action to weed out more weak holders, remember all those that sold mid 80’s & again mid 90’s rinse and repeat as we grind higher.

Yes 50,000 is a decent amount my friend £1.25M @ say £25 a share, depends on what your status is (single, married, kids, mortgages etc)but it’s enough for most to relax, travel the World, do some trading, hold some divi payers etc. GL

Investors should only buy what they could afford to lose if things don’t pan out as planned. So far all the rns’s from Immupharma are pointing to a successful outcome, obviously a gamble but to date a calculated one.