Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[ayl30] 30/11/2017 12:07

doubled up here

[sportbilly1976] 30/11/2017 12:07

qaz,

regular 12pm one. Opening trade was at 126.25, so 113p/139p required for auction

[qazwsxedc69] 30/11/2017 12:04

That 63,000 sell was badly timed.

[ny boy] 30/11/2017 11:57

This morning has showed investors if you sell, be prepared to be shut out or try and bang on a higher door up the ledge!

Any dips have been strongly bought, remember 95/100 back to 82p, ouch!

[postbrexit] 30/11/2017 11:54

Indeed. lol.

[l0ngterm] 30/11/2017 11:49

Wig: if your up for a giggle, and I don't want this to be war and peace again. To lighten things up a little.. "A trial can never fail" :-)

[sportbilly1976] 30/11/2017 11:47

Nice buying opp for some earlier

[ny boy] 30/11/2017 11:47

Mugs who sold this morning, must be buying back at higher prices lol

[wigwammer] 30/11/2017 11:38

Longterm/hottingup/divnessence/whatever other username you go under..Apology accepted ;)

[alphatim] 30/11/2017 11:32

In terms of near future valuation (2019): Estimates of sales of Lupuzor are between $2 & $3 billion dollars per year. Assume a royalty rate of 20% and we're talking between $400 & $600 million dollars of income to Immupharma per year. The Cephalon deal was worth $500 million dollars in up-front and milestone payments over 5 years ago (of which $45 million was received before the license was revoked).
What price an up-front payment upon successful completion with stellar results in 2 months time? c.$1bn? What royalty rate then? +20%? What SP? As DD says, if it works "it will not be £2, it will be a lot lot more". And that's just for lupus.

(4mins 25secs onwards)

Regarding the failed trial, we need to remember that this was a long time ago and before the mechanism of action of P140 (namely, the effect on autophagy) was fully elucidated. Since then professor S.Muller has received a number of awards for her work thereon. You can be pretty certain that 5 years worth of research has improved the odds of an even more successful result than in previous trials. I am, anyway.

[l0ngterm] 30/11/2017 11:24

Cant remember who asked for this quote?"These results are by far the best ever seen in a Lupus study and are due to the novel mechanism of action of Lupuzor which tackles specifically the intrinsic biological events constitutive of the Lupus disease at a very upstream level, which is not the case for the currently approved Monoclonial Antibody therapies which act downstream with poorer efficacy results.Note the 80% comment below:"It has to be noted that Dan Wallace was a co-author of a publication Zimmer et al ACR 2012 showing that Lupuzor was able to improve (according to the standard criteria) more than 60% of the patients after only 3 injections and that this number increased up to 80% in a sub-set of the patient population three months thereafter even without treatment," Dr Zimmer observed.https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/49336

[divinessence] 30/11/2017 11:14

hottingup, longterm Great work - well researched, empirical, methodical. Not like one or two posters who have nothing to add to their one liners. Thank you.

[spawny100] 30/11/2017 11:09

Thanks lt great research

[ny boy] 30/11/2017 11:04

It’s a slow grind north with moments of excitement to add if you are very nimble

Tick tock another month closer tomorrow, 40 odd trading days u til end of Jsnuary, so expect plenty of buying interest next month.

[l0ngterm] 30/11/2017 11:03

Supernegative/wig: some evidence for you guys, trials etc.Autophagy: independent referenced research. Evidence supporting autophagy as a key component in lupus pathology.Also supports Lupuzors approach and mechanics m of action. Independent r search by kings college."The implication of autophagy in two major pathogenic pathways in SLE suggests the potential to use inhibition of autophagy as a novel treatment target in this frequently severe autoimmune disease."http://ard.bmj.com/content/74/5/912.long And here:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1567576916303915Excipient trelahose and lupuzor:"Then in May 2011, Cephalon agreed to a takeover bid from Teva. The acquisition was finalized on Oct. 14, 2011. Dimitriou was concerned that Lupuzor's progress had been stalled during that time and that people working on the project in Cephalon had left the company. He also had direct experience of projects getting parked and neglected during takeovers when working for SmithKline Beecham plc in the aftermath of its acquisition by Glaxo plc. Intensifying those concerns, Teva had a competing lupus drug, laquinimod, in development.That led to the decision to invoke a change of control provision in the license, and ImmuPharma requested return of the rights for Lupuzor."http://www.bioworld.com/content/immupharma-restarts-lupus-work-76m-loan-phase-iii-2Trial:Methods: Two multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled phase IIb studies were run separately with similar "standard" protocols: 200µg P140/individual/month in addition to standard of care, inclusion of patients with clinical SLEDAI-2K scores >6 and no Bilag A score. The demographic characteristics of the study populations were similar in all three studies as well as in each treatment group. Drop-out rates were recorded irrespective of their reason and considered as treatment failure. Efficacy was evaluated using the SRI score.Results: Clinical studies P140 P140 Benlysta mannitol trehalose (BLISS-76)Duration of treatment:3 months 6 months 12 monthsNumber of patients x arms 50 x 3 92 x 2 273 x 3SAE active/placebo 6%/6% 10%/14% 19%/20% Drop-out rate active 5% 22% 23%Drop-out rate placebo 16% 23% 25% Responder rate active 62% 34% 43%Responder rate placebo 37% 40% 33%Conclusion:  Lupuzor (P140 in mannitol) is safe and met its primary efficacy end point in lupus patients. Data suggest that P140 may restore tolerance by acting as an altered peptide ligand of the T cell receptor. P140 also reduces autophagic process, which has been shown recently to be abnormally enhanced in T lymphocytes from lupus mice and patients. The potential reduction by Lupuzor of the enhanced autophagy process (as seen in mouse models) led to a very short onset of action, which is supported by the efficacy data. Trehalose is a known inducer of autophagy and as anticipated, it interferes with the beneficial effect of P140. Its use together with P140 peptide is therefore inappropriate in the treatment of lupus."http://acrabstracts.org/abstract/randomized-double-blind-placebo-controlled-studies-of-p140-peptide-in-mannitol-lupuzor-and-trehalose-forigerimod-in-patients-with-sle/Synopsis:the wrong excipient being used, this excipient was in appropriate and by what I have read, and IMHO would have a negative impact on the health of any Lupus sufferer with joint flares etc. This wad cephalons choice of excipientSo gentlemen no failed trial, just some stellar award winning research from the company on Lupus pathologyand excipients.Now please stop referring to out of date, out of context data that does not have any supporting evidence supplied.Supernegative: At Least, I am man enough to admit if I stated something wrong.Sorry to all other posters but some clarity, evidence and balanced needed IMHO.

[hottingup] 30/11/2017 10:59

bolador, on the basis we assume Lupuzor passes Phase 3 in Q1 2018 then any valuation of Lupuzor must start as a minimum with the $3.6 billion paid in 2012 by GSK to acquire HGSi's 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta - effectively valuing 100% of Benlysta at $7 billion.

To that $7 billion should then be added something for the following:

1) Inflation during what in 2018 will then be the last 6 years since 2012.

2) Lupuzor (I assume) being more efficaceous, faster acting, having less or no side effects, being cheaper to produce and more comfortable to administer, than Benlysta.

3) Use of Lupuzor P140 in other multiple blockbuster indications (including off label and on label) some of which have market sizes many times larger than for SLE lupus, e.g.

Data from IMM suggests Lupuzor / P140 may be able to treat several blockbuster autoimmune and non-autoimmune diseases, including:

- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (SLE ends Phase 3, Q1 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations:
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

(An analyst note states they, "understand that a majority of Phase IIb patients showed resolution of the arthritis measure (four point score...)".

4) New patent granted in key countries (USA, EU, China, India and Japan) covering Lupuzor up to 2032 and its use in the treatment of a majority of autoimmune diseases such as Sjogrens, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn's and CIDP. (Announced 27/9/2017)

5) New patent has been filed (2017) to cover non-autoimmune indications. Further preclinical work continues at the CNRS with the objective of further indications moving into the clinic in due course. (Announced 27/9/2017)

6) Evidence Lupuzor P140 works for other conditions:

41 min 30 sec:

Efficacy with other conditions corroborated by other independent researchers who are experts in these diseases e.g. Crohn's disease

45 min 50 sec:

As P140 proven to be safe via the Lupuzor trials, testing of it for other conditions can start at a Phase 2b or Phase 3, meaning approval for other conditions can be less costly and accelerated timewise:

46 min 16 sec:

Obviously, if Lupuzor is approved, the upside is that the drug could be prescribed for other conditions for those in real need.



Consequently the value of Lupuzor in Q1 2018 should be much greater than $7 billion (potentially multiples).

P.S.
In Mar 2009, HGSi shares (on 50% stake in Benlysta) were $0.45, becoming $3.23 (market cap $528m) early Jul 2009 just before PIII Benlysta results, $12.51 (market cap of $2 billion+) at close on results day late Jul 2009, and $34.49 ($6.46 billion market cap, as there was also some dilution) at peak in Apr 2010 = 76x return over 13 months from peak low to peak high.

[ny boy] 30/11/2017 10:56

Yep ...fools sold, smart money came in to take there shares, repeat of mid 90’s

Could be t- traders that had to close, don’t trade on credit, the MM’s know when to make their move,

[barneygumble27] 30/11/2017 10:55

Thanks for the dip got some more on it

[top tips] 30/11/2017 10:52

Got a few more on the drop.

[ny boy] 30/11/2017 10:52

Lovely adding there thanks mr market!

[kop202] 30/11/2017 10:47

It's the Usual AIM games where the company is still at the development sragePump dump ..pump dump....and so on until profits come long

[w1ndjammer] 30/11/2017 10:45

well it took volume of about 5 mill to from 99p to 137p and only 100k to
bring it down to 120p says it all really

WJ.