Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[greedfear] 30/11/2017 10:21

Hm. Posts planting seeds of doubt and a tree shake.
Guess it's top up time.
It's okay to have a little retrace anyway. Fresh blood, stronger hands and all that.

[bolador] 30/11/2017 10:17

top tips

ML Labs was a similar story... gone
British Biotech much the same... gone
Medical Marketing same...gone

Being a little bit sceptical might save money, that's not stupid. If the story is good the present price is low bearing in mind the apparent possible upside in the very near future.The inside information containment will not be perfect and the results are not an "open the box" event even so the share price is still only 133.This is a yellow flag.

BUT I really hope this one is different for the patients sake at least.

[hamhamham1] 30/11/2017 10:14

Just got in at 122.5p

[wigwammer] 30/11/2017 10:10

"The Cephalon trial did fail. "Yes, the Cephalon phase 3 trial did fail, and the CNRS have undertaken research to show this may be due to the excipient used.With a failed phase 3 (or ph2b as previously described) it is difficult to describe the body of evidence as "obvious" however. I continue to hold my shares because I think the risk reward remains attractive - but holders should read around and understand the Cephalon result before deciding how much to risk. IMO DYOR

[wigwammer] 30/11/2017 09:39

"Where is the failed trial guys?"Re the failed reclassified phase 3 Cephalon result:"P140 peptide formulated with trehalose was ineffective, with a trend even to be less effective than placebo (-6%)" (muller, 2014)

[hamila01] 30/11/2017 09:37

Costapacket - re your 6501 post. There's also a lot of LTH's on this board that don't believe some of the valuations being bandied about on this board currently.And whilst we can accept that the share price will increase considerably if the phase lll results are good, it'll be in the magnitude of a few times greater, certainly not in the hundreds.

[hottingup] 30/11/2017 09:37

top tips
29 Nov '17 - 21:03 - 6455 of 6508 1 0

So IMM are saying Lupuzor is a "panacea. They're saying that it's marvellous - for the first time you're going to have a drug that will cure your lupus without problems".

This seems to be borne out by the Phase 2b data and Phase 2b follow-up data, and the ongoing Phase 3 good safety record.

If Lupuzor gets a +4 point improvement for over 80% of people like in the 6 month Phase 2b follow-up, or even just 70% of people, it will be massive and better than any other lupus drug. I personally think we might even hit 90% improvement over the longer 12 month Phase 3 period. Also note Lupuzor is safer than Benlysta and achieves efficacy in a shorter time - both important considerations for patients.

[hottingup] 30/11/2017 09:36

spmc
29 Nov '17 - 15:44 - 6415 of 6507 1 0

I know we will probably get brought out at 60 - 100 pound per share if the results are good, but imagine if we marketed Lupozor ourselves and say we get a conservative 30% of the 1.5 EU/US million addressable market at the forecast $30,000 per patient per annum price point that's $13.5 billion per year in revenue at 93% margins and deducting the CNRS royalty leaves us with $10.5 billion profit deduct $500 million for marketing costs and general and administrative expensive leaves us with $10 billion profit on the sector average p/e of 16 gives us a market cap of $160 billion :) which works out at around $1,200 per share :) you can even add some in for the other drugs and other indications, shows how cheap we are even at £60-100



hottingup
29 Nov '17 - 15:53 - 6417 of 6507 3 0 Edit

Good point spmc (although 500,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $15 billion pa revenue) to which I would add:

Lupuzor revenues could be huge:

40,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $1 billion pa revenue
50,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $1.25 billion pa revenue
100,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $2.5 billion pa revenue
150,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $3.75 billion pa revenue
250,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $6.25 billion pa revenue
500,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $12.5 billion pa revenue
750,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $18.75 billion pa revenue
1,000,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $25 billion pa revenue
1,250,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $31.25 billion pa revenue

40,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $1.2 billion pa revenue
50,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $1.5 billion pa revenue
100,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $3 billion pa revenue
150,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $4.5 billion pa revenue
250,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $7.5 billion pa revenue
500,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $15 billion pa revenue
750,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $22.5 billion pa revenue
1,000,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $30 billion pa revenue
1,250,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $37.5 billion pa revenue

"There are approximately 5 million patients across the world that suffer from lupus...from a commercial perspective we could probably target 1.5 to 2 million of those sufferers in what I call the commercial markets - North America, Europe, Far East...looking at the economics...this is a drug that would probably sell at around $25,000 to $30,000 per year per patient..." (Tim McCarthy, IMM Chairman - Stocktube, Sep 2017)

Data from IMM suggests Lupuzor / P140 may be able to treat several blockbuster autoimmune and non-autoimmune diseases, including:

- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (SLE ends Phase 3, Q1 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Bullous Diseases (Market size $1.6 bn for Bullous Pemphigoid)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations:
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

IMM have a new Lupuzor patent (granted 2017) covering key markets (USA, EU, China, India & Japan) to 2032 & use in the majority of autoimmune indications. A new patent has also been filed to cover non-autoimmune indications. (IMM, Sep 2017)

Lupuzor could therefore be several blockbusters in one. (Analysts Edison stated they "understand that a majority of Phase IIb (Lupuzor) patients showed resolution of the arthritis measure (four point score)". The Rheumatoid Arthritis market size is estimated at $28.5bn by 2025. This and other indications could add significantly to the value of Lupuzor in negotiations.

Preparation for regulatory submission

[waterloo01] 30/11/2017 09:32

The Cephalon trial did fail. We've gone over this and IMM suggest the reason was the Trehalose it was mixed with. They have published papers on this but the current trial does need to prove that correct.

[fidra] 30/11/2017 09:29

When last week physiomics. Was 1p a bet a lot of people thought it would not be 11p today!shows what a decent RNS can do.

I do expect this to go up more than that with a decent result .

[ny boy] 30/11/2017 09:29

Widening the spread to mug a few more before moving up the next ledge. Same thing happened multiple times in the mid 90’s DOH!

[l0ngterm] 30/11/2017 09:28

Where is the failed trial guys? So please reference and provide evidence with link and results.As you keep stating failed and then skirting around providing evidence. It's a perfectly fair ask. Otherwise it is supposition.

[wigwammer] 30/11/2017 09:25

Super - you are correct. Longterm should do some research. The Cephalon trial was reclassified as a phase 3.Page 3, exhibit 2, August 2011www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=7737

[costapacket] 30/11/2017 09:13

In fairness to Bolador if I came on a board wanting to learn about a possible investment and saw prices quoted 150x the current price Id want to get some verification.

There was an excellent lengthy post the other day showing valuations with the Lupus blockbuster drug coming to market. At the moment we are awaiting stage 3 clinical trial results - low valuation reflects the risk position. If all is successful then it will go up as IMM will hold a game changing drug and this will attract big pharmas


I think that post would help.

I'm a holder by the way

[babanki] 30/11/2017 09:05

On panaceas: I take a drug each day that doesn't work at all for 25% of patients, works a bit for another 25% of patients, and completely cures the illness for 50% of patients. So, not a panacea for everyone; but if lupuzor is that effective we'll be happy.

[top tips] 30/11/2017 08:51

If you wait you'll pay a lot more on results day.

[top tips] 30/11/2017 08:49

Well the results are not yet out are they. What a stupid comment.

[bolador] 30/11/2017 08:47

The forecast price of this share has now reached as high as GBP200 perhaps quite soon.
Yet you can buy shares in this wonder to be for 133p today.
Caution anyone ?

[ballsac] 30/11/2017 08:15

I certainly intend to hold. Think Lupuzor think big.

[money maker1] 30/11/2017 08:05

£60 to £100 on good results.

[englishlongbow] 30/11/2017 07:52

The Phase 3 ends in around six weeks. Don't be out folks. The probability is of success. Many millionaires will be made here.