ILX Share Discussion Threads

[markt] 16/12/2011 14:07

...fingers crossed that some tip sheet may pick it for 2012.

(TechInvest fund is already invested...and I assume that it mentions it in its monthly tipsheet/report)

[markt] 16/12/2011 14:04

Interesting perhaps that the price to buy has not fallen so much.....stayed up around 24-25p....illiquid small cap. company so share price is likely to move around...

(I think the price is amazingly cheap considering the posibilities and existing turnover and profit.....perhaps the market will need to see a bit more delivery and a few more profitable result(s) be reported...and create a distance from the past problems of ILX and the closing of the loss making London finance classroom division/section)
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Education/training is a popular/hot sector....Pearson for example has been selling various of its companies to buy companies in the education sector...it is where it sees a better future and better returns....

ILX operates in that sector.


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.....over Xmas a lot of people globally are going to be buying tablet PCs
...which are ideal for use for use on trains on the way to/from work to use one's time for training/learning....

most tablet buyers are not going to be downloading an ILX training course in January....but it is clearly beneficial for ILX to be in a sector where the possible user base of people is increasing

ILX is in a good position to be able to introduce new products over the coming years...already been up the learning curve, international offices, skilled in the subject of education/learning, existing labour force skilled in the area of products for use on tablets

sales via the internet increased by 250%...to 700-800k.
they have some low cost items that can be downloaded to iphones, as apps and I assume to tablets as well
one would assume that ILX will be trying to continue to grow that sector...since the profitability should be high....perhaps new products or perhaps modified existing products....

[spaceparallax] 14/12/2011 10:28

sp looking a little weaker of late - hopefully will prove a 22p double bottom

[markt] 09/12/2011 16:32

.....not completely imho...

but I see your general point I think

Statement from dirs. only a few weeks ago in the interims was that confident for the year and that would meet targets.
"Together the business has shown steady growth and we are confident in delivering a strong result for the full year".

In which case they are 100% sure to pay at least the same dividend imo. If business drops and they fail to meet targets then, sure, different story....and PBT, PAT would depend on actual business achieved.

T.W. will be pushing them for a divi...and I expect Octupus as well, they have to pay the wages of their person on the board and for running Octupus....

(if they don't pay at least the same 1.5p divi this year....then I personally would not be surprised to see 'perhaps' a change at boardroom level as a result...depending on how Octupus/T1ps see underlying business development)

they announced a divi the year before this...and then cancelled it..and past 10 year record has been poor (while e-learning growth inside the whole has been good during those years, hidden)....so I don't think the dirs. can afford many other mess ups...so they will be keen to avoid any imo !

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In any case...interim turnover was up ...additional staff for marketing/sales...previous international sales showed big increase, on-line sales up around 250%....they are not expecting a slow down...

but you are right...that for reality we will have to wait to see...

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Note that interest cost is down...so loan costs are not so onerous....eats up smaller part of profit...so, helps a little to generate cash for paying dividend imo.

[spaceparallax] 09/12/2011 09:14

It's impossible to know how secure the divi is.

[markt] 08/12/2011 18:41

in effect ILX pays 0.125p/month dividend

...(1.5p/12 months)...(assuming that will keep paying it....and I am 100% sure it will...otherwise the dirs. will lose a lot of face/cudos....and that they don't want to risk that imo !

the low P/E is too cheap imo....but in part since it is such a small cap. company and shares are illiquid...(and change in company structure is relatively new, selling off the loss making London finance classroom part...and many investors will never have heard of ILX)......so many funds and large investors will not want to invest
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The lower interest rate will be earnings enhancing by the way.

[spaceparallax] 02/12/2011 12:03

fair comment

[eagle eye] 02/12/2011 12:00

An acquirer could strip out duplicated management costs and the AIM listing fees. As a bolt on acquisition, ILX would certainly be earnings enhancing.

[spaceparallax] 02/12/2011 11:26

sp beginning to drift a bit

[markt] 28/11/2011 17:18

...I'm a fan of ILX shares....but I think that dirs. pay has risen too much...

263k in 2005
and 606k in 2010.

2011 = 403 + 90 +24 = 517K
2012 = 2011 + 190= 707K approx. (1 more director...good addition to the board imo)

Increase from 2005 to 2011 is X 3. :-( .....and big options packages..
while the share price has gone from 100p to 25p. (fortunately I did not buy at 100p)

.imo the increase for directors is higher than it should be.
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on the other hand....with the representative from the large shareholder Octupus on the board....I expect the exec. dirs. are all being kept busy..on their toes.!

...the shares are cheap imo

[markt] 28/11/2011 15:30

je je !

international turnover over last few years.....increasing every year...and rocketing. X 3 or X 4 over 3 years I think...

Up 70% between 2010 and 2011. 70 % !!

Turnover from web portal (on-line sales) from 0.3M to 0.8M in last year.
Almost X THREE !! ...if it goes X3 this year (OK, almost impossible) it would be 2.4M approx. of sales....with a higher margin one assumes since 'on-line'

Dirs. have stated that they are confident for the year and that will achieve mkt expectation.
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e-learning sales
large growth over last few years......which continued from the years before that...

2006 3.27 M
2007 3.4 M
2008 3.9 M
2009 5 M
2010 5.95M
2011 6.54M

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according to accounts....
op. profit has gone in 5 years from 0.18M to 1.73M !!
roughly X 10 !

Op. margin from 8.9% to 13.4% in last year.

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Real assetts ?
...probably got a machine to produce CD-ROMs ....to then send out to customers....with printed course material....(or maybe they subcontract to a production company)

and total sales of over 12M. a % is classrom training and a % is e-learning...and a % is a mix...

sounds good to me !!...small or negligible fixed assetts needed to obtain large sales !. (and negligible cost to replace it every 5 years) . Wonderful !
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Gross margins increasing :-)
"Gross margins increased to 56% (6 months to 30 September 2010: 52%) "

(at Boffsters food company....gross margins have reduced from 40% to 27% over last few years !!.....because tough competition and because supermarkets put massive pressure on prices and compete suppliers...)
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"with software making up 67% of International revenues. This software element has increased over the figure for the comparative period (2010: 59%) and the resultant trend is increasing gross margins within the International division. "

Boffster...the trends for ILX are positive while the trends at your food co. for gross margins are down. (from 40% to 27% over last few years)

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ILX....its business is not about to dissapear imo....sales are up, not down....

and the rocketing international sales show that their products are good and are in demand.

6 months to Sept 2011 "International revenues more than doubled "

(compare with food company previously discussed....sales from 2008 to 2010 fell if take into account inflation. fell !!....2008 to 2011, roughly in line with inflation . Whereas ILX sales in e-learning show big growth since 2007)

[spaceparallax] 28/11/2011 13:19

Boff, I'd not sink to his depth if were you.

[boffster] 25/11/2011 15:09

This is what I would call a 'vapour-ware' company with no real assets. Its business could disappear in a heartbeat IMO

[spaceparallax] 24/11/2011 15:56

several years now from when we were above a pound and the business was more real tutors than e-business.

[markt] 24/11/2011 14:51

Space
BTW how long have you been in ILX ?
approx price you got in at ?
some years or just some months ?

...me, just some months....spring/summer this year I think...so I paid 27-31p

[markt] 24/11/2011 14:49

Space
BTW.....that food company versus ILX....
food company employs 2300 people...and makes about 2% PAT on the turnover ....
...and its costs are a very high % of turnover....and it has high debt....and sales seem to be via a Dutch auction....margin reduces year on year....
..at some stage to increase sales and hence profits you have to physically expand , by buying a new machine(s), some where to put it !, pay interest costs on the machine and pay X new staff...to make just 2% PAT on the turnover...the debt looks likely to take years to pay off, unless does something...and no dividend 'cause have to pay down the debt...if wheat/sugar are expensive in 2013 what will the share price do ?!..or if economic cuts mean that people buy less cakes in 2012 (still got big interest cost and 2300 staff to pay every week !!)...the +ve pts. you know...
...I don't mean to run it down....just trying to communicate that from my view it has many risks....



for ILX I see the numbers and risks as being better....and it pays a divi...
...for ILX there are of course risks as well...

but every share picker has their own preferences...

[markt] 24/11/2011 14:32

Space
...at FIF I have been mentioning some of the risk or -ve factors....
...and I've not tried to be even handed.....because rest of the board is all 'longs' and imo partially/completely blinkered to the -ve aspects or risk aspects....
..the +ve factors were/are probably posted by all the other posters...
and that board is like a fan club (like many boards of course)...
so no point in me repeating the +ve factors for FIF.....


...in any case....
..for all shares there are +ve and -ve factors/risks
and investing in shares is basically a risk.....

some msg boards seem to ignore the risks....partly since the posters are 'long' and want to 'push' the share and keep quiet about -ve factors...

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-ve factors for ILX....
if someone wants to post...I'd be happy to see...I would learn some new info....
a lot of info relevant to ILX is not discussed on this board....especially
- opinions from anyone that has tried ILX products
- opinions on any new products from ILX or product updates
- opinions on tech. capabilities of ILX....esp. for mobile and tablet devices
- opinions on ILX products versus those of competitors (but mega international growth over last 3 years infers that ILX products beat the competition)
- opinions on opportunities for ILX in sectors apart from PRINCE2
- info on any new products from competition
- any info on who are the ILX competition and notes on those cos.
- any view as to whether any competitor of ILX could perhaps make an offer for ILX

[spaceparallax] 24/11/2011 14:16

Markt, if you're fair and balanced in you assessments, being even handed with both, then you'll see no complaint from me.

[markt] 24/11/2011 13:38

...I guess everyone has their own preferences...

I have some of both.....more ILX than FIF....

FIF track record is not good imo.....big cash raising at 85p around 2007....and it is now 4 years later and anyone that paid 85p is sitting on 28p share price...and low dividends wrt 85p. Accounts every year say almost the same things.....' a new great team' 'new products'.....but 28p share price and cash raised at 85p. Massive loss for some, luckily not me.....
employs 2300 people and bought companies for a multiple of current co. market price....so one has to question the strategy they have used or the prices they paid...
my concern at FIF is the risk......which is up to each person how they size or value that risk....
I am not saying that FIF can not go up.....but if wheat and sugar prices increase at 50%/year then FIF price in 5 years could well be lower ! and vice versa....
Wheat price is dependant on rain....
I don't like investing much money in companies whose share price has any connection to how much rain there is !!
(if Euro falls 30% will FIF sales to France collapse ?...change in wheat and sugar prices ?...I don't know)

At CRE the same strategy has been followed.
In 2000 the share price was 100p. Now it is 73p. 11 years later !!
"At this moment" one would have to say that the strategy used has been a load of XXAP !! Fingers crossed that it will change.

ILX track record of acquisitions....also bad....but luckily I was not a shareholder then
.....I normally manage to avoid most loony valuations/floats which look 10 years ahead !
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recent ILX interims....good imo.

[spaceparallax] 24/11/2011 13:18

markt,

I've no problem about criticising self-serving directors.

Seriously though, FIF have a much stronger track record than ILX and offer a more attractive PER. Given that fact, your approach to the analyses of associated risks doesn't make sense and would lead a sceptic to to think that you must be long here and short there. If that's the case, I genuinely think you'd be well advised to reverse those stances.

I too am, and have for a long time been, in both and you probably know from my past posts here that I've shown great patience with Ken and co. I'm no expert, but the FIF story appears to offer much greater security and future potential based on fundamentals.

[markt] 24/11/2011 13:07

space
I had a dig about overpaid dirs. at ILX imo....willing to post about -ve ILX factors as well as +ve

[markt] 24/11/2011 13:05

...not at all imo !

ILX does not have the risks of changing prices in wheat, sugar, eggs or have to employ 2300 people to make its profit !

ILX ...is operationally geared as the accounts say....profits can double in time without having to double its labour costs

ILX. Growth in international turnover over last 5 years is ....electric.

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ILX uses (I think) CD ROMs and cardboard and paper as part of the products it sells......
the costs of those things have no impact on ILX profits.
At the food producing co. you refer to....any changes in raw material costs have big impact on sales and on profits...and also at risk from high street spending.....(in Greece high st. spending has collapsed....
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At ILX it could pay off its debt in 2 years if paid o divi..(1M paid off in last 6 months ! but 1/2M of that is from reducing amount that people have not paid)...but it will pay divi so take maybe 3 years...or could be 2 if goes well

At the food producer co. ......got debt for a number of years into the distance...unless it sells something or does something...and during all of those years its profits are at risk from commodity prices etc. Could well go up but also downside risks as well....eg. start of 2013.....most of debt will still be there....wheat, sugar, eggs price at start of 2013 ?....who knows....
(reduce profit margin by 1%/year and gas and wheat up by 20%/year and do the calcs. for 5 years time....not pretty imo).If margin goes up and commodity prices go down...then profits will probably increase.
Oh,.....and the directors at other co. intentionally keep shareholders in the dark imo. eg. today, no profit news.
Ex-chairman made millions from the acquisition of L.Body. Shareholders lost tens of millions !!. Paid way over the odds imo. X 2 perhaps ? Did the ex-chairman at food co. take shareholders for a ride, intentionlly, to make personal profit ?...with co-operation of XXX...I don't know.

[spaceparallax] 24/11/2011 09:52

Strange how upbeat you seem here Markt compared with certain other places.

[markt] 22/11/2011 14:11

Last annual report
"The revenue growth for the year was driven by the International division, which grew by 79% to GBP3.24 million, representing 25% of Group revenues (2010: 15%)".

Yesterdays interim report.
"International Division

Turnover rose 105% to GBP2.429 million (six months to 30 September 2010: GBP1.183 million), "


Growth in international division is ....quite amazing...or even quiet amazing !

Turnover in 6 months to 30 Sept 2011 was double the turnover in 2010.
DOUBLE !

If yearly turnover is 2 X interim T/O (should be higher imo) then international division would produce 4.8M of turnover.
And market cap. is 7.5M

Over the last 2 or 3 years the turnover outside the UK has gone crazy ...massive growth...and expecting more...
Imo if the international division was floated as a co. on its own (say with some new shares to pay off half the bank loan of 1.8M) it would be worth more than 7.5M !.

And the on-line portal multiplied its turnover by 3 at last annual account....to 0.8M.....on-line sales should produce a high profit margin....if can increase the turnover to 2M over 2 years then would increase ILX profits...maybe could make 1/2M on 2M sales if automated sales of existing products...
just the on-line part must be worth fair amount imo....increasing turnover X 3.
How many entities are doing that !...not a lot...

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...maybe the directors are 'angling' to be bought out (since they could exercise their large number of options)
"the central costs relating to technology, IT, finance, and personnel. These costs, together with the costs of the Board, advisors, and other AiM related expenditure, are presented separately as unallocated central costs. The total figure of GBP1.89 million"

...if bought out and pay off the debt then a lot of this cost of 1.9M would go..if say remove 1M of these costs if bought out then ILX is producing around 2M-2.5M profit then !....P/E of 3 !.

3 !!

..for any tech. company with a P/E of say 10-20 then ILX would immediately increase their EPS....and give them opportunities to cross sell products...and increase ILX profitability by selling via sales channels of the acquirer...

(and if any acquirer has tax losses it would be even better since I assume they could perhaps avoid paying tax on ILX earnings if incorporate into acquirer...)
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...SystemC was dirt cheap...crazy price...large part of the share price was cash..it got bought ..Dawson was too cheap...it got bought
I had them both (but I'd rather ILX went up in price this year and next year and the next (and 6% divi :-) )...rather than a once only gain)
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dirt cheap imo....but then it has been dirt cheap for months now....
will these first results with no discontinued businesses included at all perhaps affect the market opinion and slowly create some interest in the shares ?

[markt] 22/11/2011 13:43

I was hoping for more increase in turnover....but can't complain I guess....revenue up 7% and gross margins up to 56%...and international growth continues its excellent rise...

and lower bank interest rate will help profits, (while some one off costs to pay off one off bank costs of arranging previous loans)

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The massive reduction in bank interest rates being charged now....shows imo the much better position of ILX now compared to say 12 months ago....debt is now much lower ...and interest rate is now much lower since the banks see the risk of not being paid back as being much smaller now....and plan is to pay off 1.8M loan over 3 years....so 600k/year and approx 400k for divi at 5.5-6% yield
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And co. says that confident in the full year result....which tied to 5.5-6% yield expectation (1.5p divi expected)...makes the shares underpriced imo at a P/E of around 6-7. And the possibility that they could be bought out, (but I'd prefer to see share price rise over 5-10 years with better results and higher P/E, much greater possible gain than a one off % gain from a buy out now) education/training sector is seeing a lot of acquisitions (Pearson made 1 yesterday, 95% increase in price of the co. they bt)

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"Revenue up 7% to GBP5.906 million (6 months to 30 September 2010: GBP5.532 million)
-- Gross margins increased to 56% (6 months to 30 September 2010: 52%)
-- Gross profit increased 16% to GBP3.324 million (6 months to 30 September 2010: GBP2.871 million)

-- Profit before tax GBP0.115 million (6 months to 30 September 2010: GBP0.070 million)
-- Diluted earnings per share 0.41p (6 months to 30 September 2010: 0.29p)
-- Improved and extended bank facilities agreed post period end "