||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Ifx Group (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|tole: Well theres the news then....
City Index Holdings Limited
26 April 2006
City Index Holdings Limited ("City Index")
26 April 2006
Response to Share price movement in IFX Group Plc ("IFX" or "the Company")
City Index notes the recent movement in the share price of IFX. City Index made
an approach to the Board of IFX on 23 March 2006 regarding a possible offer for
IFX. This initial approach was rejected. City Index is currently evaluating
whether or not to make a further approach to the Board of IFX in respect of a
possible offer for the Company; however, there can be no certainty that an offer
will be made.|
|tole: Did a bit of digging as I dont recall all the goings-on last year circling the potential bid since I wasnt a holder....anyone who wants to elaborate I am welcome to hear them.
But was an interesting last line in this snippet which highlights the belief that IFX Group would be aquired at some point. Well its been a year on now - so maybe time for another look.
4th Feb 2005
"The spread-betting company IFX Group fell 6.5p to 118.5p after the company revealed that takeover talks, rumoured to be with Shore Capital, had been terminated. Traders said IFX shares did not fall further because of the widespread belief that the company will be acquired in the near future"
And of further interest was the Times article below - the thing I was attracted to was Vincent Tchenguiz, the foreign exchange dealer who was adding to his CFD position (wonder whether anything is going on here) and through Compagnie Financier Tradition who picked up additional stock last time only around the announcement of a potential bid - and who a couple of days ago increased their holding for the first time since then. All speculation of course, but the share-price has been v strong of late even despite its undervaluation...
Shore Capital in IFX bid approach
By Nick Hasell
The Times February 02, 2005
SHORE CAPITAL, the stockbroker, is understood to be the bidder behind a £34 million approach for IFX Group, the spread betting and foreign exchange trading firm. The move comes just a week after The Times revealed that Shore had hired NM Rothschild, the merchant bank, to look for acquisitions.
Responding to a 16 per cent rise in its shares over two days, IFX yesterday confirmed having received a "preliminary conditional approach" from an unnamed bidder, thought to be at 120p a share.
Dealers expect other predators to step in. After publication of IFX's statement, Tradition, the Swiss inter-dealer broker that owns the rival TradIndex and took a 10 per cent stake in IFX early last year, yesterday picked up a further 300,000 shares, or 1 per cent, at 120p.
Vincent Tchenguiz, the foreign exchange dealer turned property entrepreneur who in December emerged with a 3.35 per cent stake - held through contracts for difference - is also thought to have been adding to his holding.
Any firm bid for IFX is likely to be monitored by Graham Wellesley and Lorenzo Naldini, the co-founders of IFX, who were ousted in 2003 and run ODL Securities, a foreign exchange and derivatives trader. Mr Wellesley, who has the title Viscount Dangan, is thought to be keen to re-establish a presence in spread betting.
City Index, the spread- betting firm backed by Michael Spencer, founder of Icap, is also likely to express interest.
Shore, run by the brothers Graham and Howard Shore, has a stock market value of £106 million.
The approach for IFX is thought to reflect raised confidence in its recent turnaround under Edmond Warner, chief executive, and an improvement in trading conditions in spread betting.|
|tole: Makes me laugh - focus portrayed onto the CEO leaving for pastures new and totalling undermining the perfectly good and upbeat trading statement.
"Punters exited IFX Group, 5p adrift at 126p, after the financial trading and spread betting company revealed that chief executive Edmond Warner is to resign at some point in 2006."
(Punters - all of 5 of them going by the 5 sells, Will see the exact opposite when a new CEO is announced imo)
Still looks very good value to me, loads of cash (19.5m equates to about 68p per share) and put it on a similar rating to IG as pointed out above at circa 20x and there is plenty of upside left in this one.
"As announced in November 2005, the first half of the year showed a significant
increase in profitability. The Group has again performed strongly in the second
half of the year, with Equity Products in particular showing increased
profitability from the first half. The Group has also continued the trend of
increased customer acquisition and activity. During the past six months the
Group has opened an office in Shanghai and has acquired a majority stake in
gaming business FX Player. The Group has recently commenced 24 hour trading in
Equity Products and, in the coming weeks, a newly established office in Sydney
will open for business to provide contracts for differences to the Australian
Funnily enough the above statement virtually repeats what Panmure are recently quoted as saying
'The company is seeing a particularly strong performance in its forex operations, driven by its US business. It is also seeing a significant improvement in customer fund inflow and customer activity. The new offices in China and Australis should add to the momentum'
Can perfectly see the fundamentals behind a 160p share price here.|
|tole: Well another nice quiet thread and with the share price here creping up over the last few day to have a look at 130 again.
Panmure quoted as saying 'The company is seeing a particularly strong performance in its forex operations, driven by its US business. It is also seeing a significant improvement in customer fund inflow and customer activity. The new offices in China and Australis should add to the momentum'
Noticed they have a BUY recommendation and a fair value target of 160p.|
|glasshalfull: slapdash - Schroders bought 200,000 @ 125p = £250k.
Otherwise, I agree with the content of your post.
I am trying to avoid trading in and out of such companies as in the long run IFX will be snapped up IMO, and at a far higher level than the current share price. So no second guessing the short term fluctuations with regards to my own circumstances.
There is plenty of upside as we've discussed and the strong balance sheet should protect the downside.
IFX issued strong guidance/trading for the beginning of the 2nd half.
I wouldn't be surprised if the next trading statement told of the company exceeding expectations.
No guessing that I'm fairly bullish on this one.
Good luck if you decide to take your profit.
I'm sure we'll resume this thread nearer the next set of results.
|slapdash: Glasshalffull - yes a reassuring increase but only about £20k. Got a writeup in Shares Magazine this week which concentrated on weakness in their the equity side (spread bets and cfds).
I haven't been too impressed by the share price performance since results but understand most people concentrate on the finals - especially for small companies. That means it is a wait until April 1st for a full-year trading statement which is likely to be in line. However, as ever the stockmarket appears to overlook cash in the balance sheet which is about half the market cap here and will be approaching 2/3 soon.
I have been impressed by the cash generation, the success at the acquisition and the growth of the Forex side of the business.
Although this is a turnaround story the caveat that it is in a very competitive area. However, it is also a potential takeover target.
In summary I would of liked to be in more profits by now then I am and think the next move could now be at the trading statement or the full-year results. Slightly disappointing but a profit is a profit.|
|slapdash: Well that is good news. Last price target I saw was Numis at 140p
A slight cautionary note on reading through the results is that the strong gains on last year were after not having to take into account restructuring costs. Secondly, the Equity products division appeared to take a bit of a set back.
However, the cash flow was great which gave the company almost £19m in cash. Secondly, FX did exceptionally well which shows how the US acquisition has worked out well.
Looking ahead we also got a positive trading update for the first two months of H2 which was reassuring. Secondly, the equity products division has apparently rebounded somewhat which bodes well for H2.
On valuation grounds the company doesn't seem expensive to me. However, the stock market tends to overlook cash in the balance sheet to focus on P/E ratios. IFX is probably on around 11 or 12 times going forward which isn't too expensive but this is a trading business so earnings are inevitably somewhat unpredictable and volatile. So arguably a low rating is justified. However, Finspreads is in a growth area (although a minnow in its field) and the FX division does appear to be working well.
All that has to happen for the share price to go up is for management to not hit any major pot holes in my view. But I do see this one as a long-term steady climb. It is a business where there is a huge premium on good management given how competitive the area is. I am somewhat reassured by Warner as his first acquisition worked out well. As he starts to similarly reassure the market with a strong earnings background behind him I'm confident we should reach at least 150p. This may be after the full-year though or at the next interims. After all at the full-year this could have cash over £21m and in one year it could be £23m. That would leave a paltry EV/Earnings ratio. At that rate the market cap would be fully cash in about five years.
Of course it should be rememberd that these are just theoretical ramblings which are totally dependent on the company continuing to operate in the manner it does now - i.e. not getting any one-off hits or seeing deteriorating business. The risk reward does look favourable, though, in my view.
|glasshalfull: Well done Slap.
Great set of results albeit a quick skim through as another one of my holdings (Pilat Media) has announced.
I think the share price will now push on from here.
Are you sticking with it ?
|glasshalfull: Yes, Slap.....here's hoping !!!
I availed myself of a couple more at the end of last week.
Feel that the cash balances underpin the share price and IFX seem to be expanding at a sensible rate.
Will post further tomorrow.
|slapdash: This thread has gone dead....
Anyway, the mysterious Mr Tchenguiz has apparently been unable to buy a 10% stake and so has bought CFDs amounting to 3.3percent of group (in FT today).
This is interesting for a number of reasons. Firstly, the major holders aren't looking to reduce their stakes. Unless Fidelity become morons again.
And Mr Tchenguiz thinks the business will do well.
All this is interesting speculation I suppose but big investors have been wrong many times before and on a fundamental basis I was a little disappointed with the interims to be honest...
Not really sure how cash should be treated in the balance sheet.. - deducted form market cap together with the interest it receives (one approach I guess)... this woudl meand residual share price of say around 45p which one would hope to get earnings for of 4.5p... which isn't too demanding...
Or do we say 98p in total so we want around 9.8p earnings and growth from there.. incluing interest.... which comes as being very demanding considering that interest payments would be comparatively low...
The difference is that in the second scenario I'm only effectively giving interest payments a P/E of ten when in reality they might deserve say 25... as interest payments are solid so you should get the same rate when buying a share as when putting it in a bank..
But I don't think the market sees it quite like that and demands the 9.8p which is fairly hard for the group to acheive...
And of this seem logical???
Forward share price may slowly rise but I really didn't think the interims were that good and it will be a while until we get any updates...
Think the FT has hpyed this stock a bit... so fo rhte short term the company still has to prove itself and deliver earnings which is has singularly failed to do so far... I.e. full year earnings will probably come in at around 4p when I was hoping to get those only for the interims in a best case scenario...
But going forward good management is the key to everything (or a long-term sustained share price rise)... and the pieces appear to be coming together...
So company is probably a long-term hold...
Not one for me to spread bet on I'm afriad..
Probably a stock to give to granny (with the cash pile)...
Ifx Group share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange