Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads

[kendonagasaki] 21/12/2016 15:48

Looks like Mr Black will buy them out here at a penny and very soon IMO.

[capricious] 13/12/2016 11:09

Although I wasn't expecting a real rise based on previous price action, it would've been nice to keep above 2.0.

I'm assuming as before, the MM(s) are still offloading their volume and react far more strongly to sells, than the much higher buy side.

[capricious] 13/12/2016 09:57

Considering the quality of your other posts, you've posively outdone yourself

[gimmetheloot] 12/12/2016 14:03

They will take 375k shares in one go above mid so
It's baffling me Keya

[keya5000] 12/12/2016 13:45

Think there is still a seller. Trades on the buy side being absorbed.

[capricious] 12/12/2016 13:40

Yes you're right as a calculation basis but what I meant by the secondary feedstock market, is that it's not so simple.

You can get quite a bit of competition for the feedstock, which sometimes keeps or delays the price following the crude market. This can also work against as well as for Hydrodec but getting a handle on actual prices is pretty difficult for an outsider, and not one in the procurement side of things. The naphthenic market doesn't have as easily accessible & clear reporting of prices either.


Price action might mean a large sell coming through?

[yump] 12/12/2016 12:23

Presumably its the differential between feedstock and output prices that matters, but no idea how to get a handle on that.

What is really needed somehow is a chart of crude price vs. margin vs. feedstock price over the period HYR have been operating. That would be interesting. I presume they would have one internally somewhere.

Is HYR's output price cushioned to some extent from the crude price ? - would it be reasonable to assume that demand would be better under unstable oil price conditions ? ie. buyers more likely to look for stable supply price...

[capricious] 12/12/2016 11:25

These last two trading days has seen a good start into clearing the overhang, if indeed the MMs took the volume.


Just to clarify a previous post re estimates. The potential margin improvements to a more historical norm, are not meant to be specifically for 2017. The difficulty in arriving at estimates and one would expect, also to get a clear trajectory to improving figures, is the secondary market for feedstock. It doesn't follow that low crude prices mean low margins, and visa versa.

But what is easy to say, is the higher the ratio of Superfine vs baseoil, the better.


There's still headroom for increased output from their record of 2.8ML. With the sudden crude spike it will be interesting to see if buyers suddenly come out of the woodwork after thinking they can sit tight during the festive period

[the macallan] 12/12/2016 11:02

They aren't in a close period because:"The time period between the completion of a listed company's financial results and the announcing of these results to the public. The close period is typically regarded as the one-month period preceding the release of a company's quarterly results, and the two-month period before the release of its annual results."

[keya5000] 12/12/2016 10:56

Look how it moved in July prior to the trading update which signalled the turnaround.

Ten days of upwards moves from low 2's to 5p.

I wonder if the trading update today was to allow directors buys and take them out of closed period, I am aware they had a board meeting last week.

[capricious] 12/12/2016 10:52

As mentioned I'm not factoring in large rises but lets see if it follows other Monday morning news opens as we get an initial spike, it then settles back until we get more people picking up the news. Hopefully it creates a higher floor than what we've had so far.

[capricious] 12/12/2016 10:42

@yump no that's ok and I understand your point as it's very valid.


Unless it was to another particular counter party but I think the MMs were willing to absorb the volume, which tells you something.


@keya5000,@targatarga yeah without calculating that looks like around 70k on today's money. We still have some way to go so I'm not expecting large gains and if the fund manager was determined to sell, then as far as they're concerned I guess it's easier against a positive backdrop.

[keya5000] 12/12/2016 10:26

LOL that's funds for you.

[targatarga] 12/12/2016 10:20

Great move considering they only received 1.75p

[keya5000] 12/12/2016 10:14

Could be such a simple reason like a change of fund manager.

[yump] 12/12/2016 10:13

capricious

I was having a very cynical weekend - hope I didn't offend.

Used to go meet BOD's and attend investor presentations/roadshows, but found to my cost that meeting people who were in presentation mode distorted my assessment of the businesses, so I don't any more. I can't differentiate the smooth operators from the enthusiastic and committed guys.

btw thanks for your calcs/info.

[capricious] 12/12/2016 10:11

This also has me considering why the institute sold 17 million right now when things were improving.

[capricious] 12/12/2016 10:06

To put their record production in perspective. If you take the lower bound for margin, that equates to $560,000/mnth


If you then postulate that it's reasonable to expect margins to increase from historic lows, say to 30c, we then arrive at $840,000/mnth.

This is all very loose estimates and shouldn't be taken literally but it shows the potential upside. The record output is also on one month but I thought this period can be quiet for crude markets, so they've done well.

[capricious] 12/12/2016 09:51

To be honest in past years I could easily glean enough information from Hydrodec and the wider market, to get a very close approximation of margin. I've not had enough info to do this since the 'annus horribilis' but my best guest is that they've managed this performance against the backdrop of low margins. i.e 20-25c/litre*. So as the market stabilises and by the volume reported, it's clear they are fully reengaging with customers, I can't imagine this will improve.


* This is not specifically a price achieved from one product but rather an average. We mus remember that the earlier part of the year the balance of product sold was balanced towards baseoil, this has steadily changed as the year progressed. Historically an achievable margin can be around 35-37c, so their is a lot of improvement that may feed into the year.

[keya5000] 12/12/2016 09:39

capricous,

What is the average selling price per litre that they will be achieving now?

I can see various 'transformer oil' products and a range of prices.

Like you say minor improvements in margins on that volume will have a massive effect on profitability.

[capricious] 12/12/2016 09:36

@yump

Specifically to answer your point. I've been posting on Hydrodec for a long long time, granted I've not had the pleasure to meet 'Mr Black' (that better?) but I have met members of the BOD and others. I've reached the stage were using Mr Black each time doesn't feel right for some occasions. Anyhow, I think all of us with interest in Hydrodec should all consider Andrew a buddy, with his steadfast support.



Re: RNS. I think this show they listen, obviously not every occasion, but we've had many an answer to the main topic of discussion. This tells me what I was expecting/hoping for going into 2017, a great platform to begin the new year. To reiterate any improvement in margins, on this enlarged output, has a significant impact throughout the year. Chris (Mr Ellis) et al are doing rather well I'd say

[keya5000] 12/12/2016 08:17

RP you are all about what is wrong with this site these days.

Obnoxious individual.

[runwaypaul] 12/12/2016 08:15

KEEP PUMPING

SHES GOING DOWN

TAKING ON WATER

PUMP PUMP PUMP!