||EPS - Basic
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Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads
Showing 4276 to 4299 of 4300 messages
|Normal service resumed?|
|Capricious, IMHO, this will be like a bronco ride, while MMs try to get ride of us. But the trend is up, and I believe we may be right at the beginning of it. So I won't be unseated, unless I see something I haven't yet! Indeed, when it reaches 3p, and completes the IHS, I may look to add, as this will only confirm my speculation that we are in secular recovery mode.|
|Down nearly 5%, up over 5% in minutes. MM playing the game they know best.|
|Here one day, gone the next. Bar a few, not much missed.|
|Nice to see a change of direction in the price again. Where have all the cheerleaders gone?|
|A case perhaps of 'How low do they dare go'..
Before it takes off again.|
|Yep seems we've had an MM consistently low ball prices.. but if there are takers, then that's the way it works.
Do we know if the 800k was a sell or buy. It was delayed so could be either.|
|CFEP are now offering shares at 25 points lower than any other market maker. They have been forcing the price down in last day or so. Bit sad to see all the hard won increases drift away through this manipulationEarlier this morning you could sell 500000 but not buy 10000. All very odd|
|Dropped my guts earlier - slightly better now!|
|Loaded up on the drop|
|Buys flying in now|
|Looks like a base pattern, (note the rounded bottom!) with 4p as the clear target, which is also the year high. MACD turned up, ready to roll!
Next target on the two year is 7p, which would become next target. 5 year high at 14p. As you can see, I like this story!
And now I really must take off my rose tinted glasses.|
|Last two trades were the same as yesterday's last two, except 1 share less.|
|BUYERS LOADING UP|
|Seems like one MM that is low balling and the seller is willing to accept.|
|Might not be the case but looks as if the seller (or the MM absorbing the volume) is managing their selling so we stick to a tight range.|
|Considering what Aviva has dumped the volume has eaten it up and become unnoticaeable. Once good this will fly ;-))|
|Good post 1gw,
Yeah that 13.9m, then deleted, was certainly odd.
The trading pattern you highlight is more than feasible, even with the sudden influx of twitter/bb related trades, to muddy the waters.
The problem with twitter/bb etc, it's pretty much anonymous if you know what you're doing, so I'm never entirely convinced these things are coincidental. With that said it does seem users saw an influx of available shares (with sellers out or near there), the good news drip, seemingly painting a picture of undervalue/under the radar, and the MMs actually offering up good quantities for purchase, giving them renewed interest.|
|[Post edited to include and in light of the 20th January transaction, which I had forgotten about. Apologies to anyone who trawled through the original post.]
I think we might still be missing something from 8th-9th Feb. If you look at the volumes around the dates of the Aviva transactions you have the following:
1. Disposal of 6.1m on 20th January and 12.75m on 23rd January
19th Jan - 2m shares traded (source: Barclays trade data)
20th Jan - 49m
23rd Jan - 48m
24th Jan - 31m
24th Jan - 11m
2. Disposal of 4.5m on 30th January
26th Jan - 8m shares traded
27th Jan - 25m
30th Jan - 19m
31st Jan - 18m
1st Feb - 8m
So effectively the first transaction could be regarded as 19m, since the holdings notices were not published until after both the 6.1m and the 12.75m transactions had completed.
The reported volume on the transaction dates was about 4-5x the size of the Aviva transactions (i.e. 97m on 20th + 23rd vs 19m transaction and 19m on 30th vs 4.5m transaction. The volume stayed high on the day after the transaction.
What's curious about the 30th Jan transaction is the high volume the day before. This could be because the transaction started on 27th or it could relate to the 13.9m trade originally reported for 27th (and presumably in the 25m number) but recently apparently deleted.
There's one other high volume pattern more recently:
7th Feb - 6m shares traded
8th Feb - 32m
9th Feb - 38m
10th Feb - 14m
13th Feb - 14m
So this might be consistent with a further big transaction of about 15m shares around 8th-9th Feb (i.e. 1/5 to 1/4 of the 70m reported for the 2 days).
All speculation of course, and difficult to separate out the "twitter" and bulletin board impacts. Indeed could the sudden influx of bb posters and tweets be in any way connected with the Aviva transactions, other than purely inspired by seeing heavy volume?|
|Ah interesting, in that case, I would think it's more likely the current nominated broker, i.e Canaccord?
Which then means it reduces the case that there are further, as yet to be released, TR1 disclosures, as the delays should be more a one off, rather than systemic.|
|On the delay, I don't read this as necessarily Aviva's fault.
The TR-1's say they notified both transactions the following day (i.e. 23rd Jan transaction was notified on 24th Jan, 30th Jan transaction notified on 31st Jan).
The notification is made to the "issuer" which I presume is Hydrodec (i.e. the issuer of the relevant securities).
So it reads to me as though the delay was not in Aviva but in the admin departments of the "issuer" and downstream.
Now it could always be that the notifications got "lost in the post" and Aviva subsequently sent a copy with the "original" notification date, but it could also be that they got lost in a Hydrodec postbox.|
|Haha, yeah but I guess if this is part of an agreed plan, they will be selling out whether the share price is set to recover or not.
I think Aviva have sailed fairly close to breaking the rules, at least in the spirit, if not legally speaking. The rules state if you break 3% (hold) you need to disclose within two days. Then every 1% either way, there should be a notification (TR1), I don't know if in this case there is a similar two day rule. There are exceptions, e.g. if the company is registered outside the UK.
I'm guessing there's a good chance and others maybe assuming the same, with the very delayed notification, that Aviva could very well be all out, with further delayed reports to come. There has been enough volume in the intervening periods...|
|So is that what Aviva do with their investors money then - sell low ?|
|Yep, I assume it was within the required time limit set out for such things. I guess that could mean there are a few more of these, much delayed RNS.|