Hurricane Energy Takeover Rumours (HUR)

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Hurricane Energy Takeover Price

Hurricane Energy Takeover Forum Posts

"There is a reasonable chance that if Big Oil leave it till the EPS comes in that they will be facing a share price that is always a bit too high. That in some way is why Tullow escaped the Big Oils grasp so maybe just maybe the oddity of basement will mean that they don't pull the trigger fast enough" I would disagree. For big oil, small, midcap and large independents are never too big. Just look at Shell's takeover of BG Group. Big oil will just absorb any other entity it wants to. Cash
Hi fireplace22, I think you're right ! And if the convertibles WERE turned into equity (at HUR's discretion, IIRC ?), then unless Kerogen had a seriously disproportionate conv holding, they wouldn't be at risk of breaching the 'mandatory takeover' threshold, would they, because the denominator would rise as well.... Hmmm... ATB
If David's comment is accurate, and I believe it is, they have gone from 219p to £1 in 6 days! Two completely different valuations. The 219p is their estimate of the nav - which is likely to prove conservative as there will be little or nothing in there for anything beyond the EPS. The second is RB's estimate of what someone would need to offer now to be able to make a successful takeover. In other words, given the current state of the SP and market view it would be probably be possible for someone to buy HUR on the cheap, if they wanted. That estimate has no bearing on what CA think HUR is worth, which, given the size of their holding, is probably a lot more. Peter
kirt, you could have bought without any charting guff at 45p and a takeover could have come at 150p three days later. this isnt a ftse share, its been royally manipulated to buggery all the way down for no reason atall. You talk charts, but with 1 RNS from CA by an amazing charting theory of the gods it rises 20% in an afternoon!!, oh sorry, that was in Gods charts!, give me a feckin break man i rest my case, feck your charts, its all and ever will be with a small oiler, news flow, news flow, news flow , news flow until the end of time and more news flow.
once again, with small oilers, charts mean feck all. You are either in for a takeover, iminent farm in and placing to set it going higher. This isnt Alliance trust or Tesco. Fireworks can happen at any time here, no more charting pish please and 24p gap filling guff. FFS!
L2 none too pretty :-( WINS is working hard at the top of the Bid, but SCAP and CNKS have completely retreated and PEEL is playing it safe. It's all about financing now or a takeover. So much for Johnny's 200p takeout this year !
Delek upped their stake in FPM yesterday so anyone nursing losses may well find they could recoup those losses from a possible takeover of FPM by Delek apolgies for /ot
chutes - I recall you claiming to be a regular in the granite city who had heard about an imminent takeover bid?It's strange, as you give a good impression of someone who hasn't a fucking clue what he's talking about
Sorry fireplace I was wrong in my 67p assumption. Reading up on takeover rules it appears it is not the highest SP in the 3 month period prior to offer but is in fact the highest price paid by offeror in 3 month period. Everyday is a school day
Assuming this is a takeover offer they would have to offer at least 67p....
still utterly perplexed as to what has gone wrong now for this to be at 39p, when it was at 66p only a few weeks back. I take it there is not oil then?,what has changed?, all in all one of the oddest oil share shares i have ever seen in 25 years. the management need to be beaten very hard where they stand, feckwhits. what can possibly be holding up farm in IF they have so much oil, its all very odd. Farm in or takeover should have been like lightning weeks ago, instead a menaingless drop to 39p. why?.
Buzzzzzzzzzz, The 200p was based on a takeover happening. It still might but I'm less optimistic than I was given the difficulty with the minor fund raising.
You are all forgetting they want to drill 4 more wells.I'd add £200m to what they need to raise so it's around £600m certainly in excess of £500mWithout a decent farmout or takeover I'm beginning to fear for current equity
Hi BH I was looking to point it out to the chairman on the day, ideally ahead of the vote. I am sure that they will dismiss these issues as irrelevant but once the millions start showing up I am certain HMRC will happily look at this as a "Happy hunting ground." That would be the exact same path as occurred with the Film Finance investigation. And on that occasion PWC, KPMG, EY etc all gave their approving support and made double their money charging fees to the the poor fools who got involved. PWC advising the KPMG clients and vice versa of course! But the fact that they had replaced one scheme which was clean for this one will massively strengthen any HMRC position. The Board could not claim they were innocent intent wise and it leaves the Revenue a 20 year window to come after them. Post any takeover of the Company that would be them personally of course. DB
I'd settle for 99p a share thx... If takeover..
You reckon it will be an Asian buyer - so you reckon the cheap takeover definitely will happen?Well I'm sure there are quite a few people here who would be pleased with that outcome.
Ripe for a takeover, 10 past 4 would do me fine!
Always seems to be good buying around the 51p level, I think this is the floor and once consolidation has completed that we should push on back to the 60's before confirmation of funding. Too much negativity recently, just remember that Dr T managed to get Kerogen onboard at a premium to what the sp was at the time, I have every faith that he will achieve the same success with funding/farm in/takeover. Patience is the key, good things come to those who wait. GLA
Control - Dilution isn't the issue. I am, and always was, very much aware that new shares would have to be thrown at this. It is the sheltering from the effects of the dilution for the three executives that is the issue. I would prefer they helped themselves to a bigger slice of the cake and ditch the dilution clause. They can then take the same medicine as the rest of us. If dilution is not an issue, why are the executives wanting immunity? Alistair Stobie was recruited for his skills and past experience as an innovative fundraiser in the O&G sector. So what would be so innovative about issuing new shares that it requires this kind of reward? Short of a takeover in the near future additional shares will have to be issued, so they should get on with it and stop using it as an excuse to line their own pockets.
The VCP was set up in November, just after the 34p placing (at the placing price) but at a time when the Board would have known the Lincoln results. The data room had not been re-opened and no prospect of a takeover seemed imminent at that time or even now for that matter. So to link the VCPs with an imminent takeover is tenuous I think. It was however as clear then as it is now that dilution will be a necessity and that’s the part that I object to. There is no sound reason why the executives should be sheltered from dilution. It risks scewing their judgement because their interests will no longer be aligned with ours. I've told my broker (nominee account) to vote the special resolution down.
Re AS , his tweet re Takeover Code last year was another example of this mans crass flippancy. He has a job and paid massively to do it and get the praise and kudos accordingly. The 400 blah to be honest I found incredulous. I haven't a clue what's happening and neither bought nor sold , hindsight is an amazing thing . No body said it would be easy
HUR got most finance from Kerogen and Crystal Amber. they not got finance from nasty dog eat dog market yet kerogen can't go over limit otherwise they gotta make full takeover bid so they tied up HUR need 'new' ii investors and they not goin to pay more than kerogens , why shud they they pay 30p if they can
Oil companies are usually valued for purposes of a takeover on their 2P. The values that get quoted in the press/RNSs etc may tend to concentrate on $/2Pbbl valuations as they are easy for hacks to calculate, and make good headlines - but to think that bidding companies don't pay very close attention to all the other potential assets of a company is complete nonsense. Peter
The lack of understanding on this board is astonishing. NOBODY will value an oil company based on its contingent resources. Oil companies are usually valued for purposes of a takeover on their 2P. This makes HUR look overvalued on fundamentals. IMO. Talk of a takeover from a major is fantasy land.
Todays sp and breakout is pretty significant . If there was a big equity raise the price would weaken. It smacks of significant news in my opinion, either a farm-out or a takeover or maybe the CPR is going to be off the charts. Thoughts ?
Takeover tomorrow? Could come anytime now IMO dcarn and BP are clearly the right fit for this project...
PS I wake up every morning now expecting a takeover approach.. Its just a question of when and who..
Well, adam, my experience is that they don't. BP and Shell in particular are complete plonkers when it comes to acquisitions. I remember advising BP to buy Britoil when the share price was 80p. They ummed and aahed for a LONG time before going ahead and paying 500p a share to complete the takeover.. Amusingly, when they did get back to me (1987) and ask for my firm to act for them in the acquisition, we had to turn them down due to a conflict of interest. We were already working for Arco on a bid! I've seen nothing since to make me think they have improved - Shell messed up BG only last year.
DavidBlack,Well said. That game is compounded further when entering into financing. In order to raise finance, a select group get data most have no access to. Then further discounts are agreed to get the right numbers in the raise. If that road is not possible, RBL's and other lines of credit are sought. This is the stage where the company effectively mortgages the hard-won assets in order to get over the development/production line. A reasonable option when the macreconomic situation is good, but deaths-door when the outlook changes as creditors takeover and dictate the outcome (for themselves).Cash
tournesol Definitely agree with you on this, the idea of anyone finding the takeover money before anyone finding the farm in money just doesnt gel in the real world. Would love to be wrong but a farm in, i think, is the way this is definitely going to go. It will be interesting to see how long this process takes, they are bound to have a lot of interest, we already have Malcys comment on a room of industry top rankers looking at the prospects. Who will be the first to break cover?
You can't have a hostile bid with a controlling shareholder. They are rare even without that because they are expensive and push the price up too much. An agreed, management-recommended takeover with irrevocable undertakings from the main shareholders is the only way it would happen.
Me version of it would be that HUR cuts a deal with those bond holders at the same time thus effectively unlocking PMO which wastes years going no where on its own. Hurricane get production assets and people who know how a HUR gets its own clear path to control its own destiny. The end result for HUR is the same, a takeover by BP or Shell but this time at £7 not £1.50! Whilst everyone knows that PMO is a basket case the truth is their misfortune came about because of the drop in oil price not poor management. Everyone else dropped the same ball but most had either a balance sheet to hide their mistakes or were taken out by bankruptcy quickly and forgotten. PMO like Tullow became the undead zombies. Tullow have now managed to change their fortunes perhaps Hurricane could do the same for PMO shareholders and help our selves to their assets at 10c on the dollar? Ps I am not a PMO shareholder, I am more interested in being a charitable vulture!
What if the CPR is deliberately being delayed due to ongoing discussions around a farm out / takeover from a major? Thats one theory anyway, not saying it's correct but it's something I've personally considered.
A takeover is exactly what AS and the Dr are looking for. Far better to take 300p now rather than get 500p in 4 years time.
kirtonender9 - I've been trying to back calculate how much in GBP they actually started with back in 2004.... Dr. Bob was ex Enterprise Oil; they were taken over in 2002 by Shell, so assuming he was still with EO at takeover he would have probably got a healthy payoff from that. But would it have been enough to get started here...?
The key in my view from the pod cast is which one of the majors, if any will take a really serious interest here re farm in or similar. If they have had 3 lots at their offices all week, the majors will know soon enough if there is true foundation to HUR results. If it is all true, then it will come out in the wash soon enough. A case of wait and see. We may even get a bidding war for a farm in or maybe a straight takeover, which i think is very possible if what HUR say is true. very exciting times though.
Next Monday for CPR or the following Monday imo Takeover news could come at anytime
The only way PMO could get interested (and I bet they wish they bought HUR over Solan) would be by a huge debt for equity swap or rights issue.. Which is possible.. It would in effect be a reverse takeover in a sense though Would not rule it out....
Regarding the BP or Shell potential involvement. If any major was drilling Halifax, would with their conventional experts have cut and run from the halifax well when the DST issue arose or would they have done what Dr. T did and keep going. I think they would have abandoned the well and moved on forever leaving the resource to nature. My point being they need Dr T in any deal, farm out or takeover. In some respects our Dr T IS HUR and he's worth a lot.
Http:// Sounds good. -- "I believe the fireworks could be just around the corner." "Given that management has already hinted that previous estimations were “conservative“, this update will surely make it harder than ever for prospective investors to remain on the fence." "the probability of its shares multi-bagging from here — despite their already impressive 500% rise in 2016 — appears high" "The possibility of it receiving an audacious takeover offer is still not out of the question either."
That's true Bloodhound, and maybe they will exercise the warrants. But they do have three years to exercise and a takeover would deliver them the payout anyway so I can't see them exercising just yet, and perhaps never. It's a handy little stash for them to have; off the radar. If they were to have a lean year they could exercise, sell and add a bit of profit to the fund.
Brent rocketing today again.Think at this share price the majors would be thinking a cheap takeover rather than a farm in. HUR has grafted all the hard work, 100p would easily buy us out.
I think the $400mln funding will be part placement, possibly part debt. I think there is also the option of a partner carry in the mix too, which is my preferred option at this stage. I don't want to see hur get tied-up in development ops, let a larger concern takeover EPS only. There are now plenty of barrels for hur to bargain with. Most importantly, its the CPR which we need to put some definitive numbers to the resources HUR have unearthed. A few weeks away I'd imagine. so a little patience in order here. Watch how the broker/analyst notes come in after that. Cash
So now starts a huge game of chicken, majors will be sniffing, do they takeover, farm in, step away, who blinks first, who breaks rank, this is going to be fascinating. As Malcy says though, the main thing is at the moment hur own 100 percent of this monster. And it is a monster.I think this will grind up to 100p now the valuation at the moment is ridiculous.
I like Malcy's target, 150p and 200p in a takeover.
I wish I was a geologist! Looks quite interesting though. Maybe BP or Shell might be interested in a takeover here? Just on the sidelines meself but thinking of putting a few grand in here.
I posted last night that I'm simply going to hold onto my shares and wait for a takeover, so price predictions are a bit irrelevant for me - it will be what it will be. But they are a bit of fun.
Look back at Edinburgh Oil and Gas and the Buzzard discovery. Alf Bissett kept a very tight ship.The discovery of Buzzard to the eventual takeover took five years. He even had an open offer at 136p and the price from when the drilling announcement was made rose from 32p to the eventual 314. There is a long way to go with this. This is still early days with this and the strategy battles have only just begun.
Hiddendepths, I did a rough estimate the other day using the areal size and how the ridge narrows in the centre and gets thicker and shallower at Halifax. Lancaster currently accounts for 25 to 33% of the areal extent so my personal view using the current CPR figures is around 1.5 billion. However you an I both know that big fields tend to get bigger. I still maintain HUR are now primed for takeover or at least the sale of the GLA
Don't trade this. Don't sell this. Just hold this until the takeover... whenever that is. Simples.
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P:32 V: D:20170920 14:50:02