Me version of it would be that HUR cuts a deal with those bond holders at the same time thus effectively unlocking PMO which wastes years going no where on its own. Hurricane get production assets and people who know how a HUR gets its own clear path to control its own destiny.
The end result for HUR is the same, a takeover by BP or Shell but this time at ÃÂ£7 not ÃÂ£1.50!
Whilst everyone knows that PMO is a basket case the truth is their misfortune came about because of the drop in oil price not poor management. Everyone else dropped the same ball but most had either a balance sheet to hide their mistakes or were taken out by bankruptcy quickly and forgotten.
PMO like Tullow became the undead zombies. Tullow have now managed to change their fortunes perhaps Hurricane could do the same for PMO shareholders and help our selves to their assets at 10c on the dollar?
Ps I am not a PMO shareholder, I am more interested in being a charitable vulture!
What if the CPR is deliberately being delayed due to ongoing discussions around a farm out / takeover from a major? Thats one theory anyway, not saying it's correct but it's something I've personally considered.
A takeover is exactly what AS and the Dr are looking for. Far better to take 300p now rather than get 500p in 4 years time.
kirtonender9 - I've been trying to back calculate how much in GBP they actually started with back in 2004....
Dr. Bob was ex Enterprise Oil; they were taken over in 2002 by Shell, so assuming he was still with EO at takeover he would have probably got a healthy payoff from that. But would it have been enough to get started here...?
The key in my view from the pod cast is which one of the majors, if any will take a really serious interest here re farm in or similar. If they have had 3 lots at their offices all week, the majors will know soon enough if there is true foundation to HUR results.
If it is all true, then it will come out in the wash soon enough. A case of wait and see.
We may even get a bidding war for a farm in or maybe a straight takeover, which i think is very possible if what HUR say is true.
very exciting times though.
Next Monday for CPR or the following Monday imo
Takeover news could come at anytime
The only way PMO could get interested (and I bet they wish they bought HUR over Solan) would be by a huge debt for equity swap or rights issue..
Which is possible.. It would in effect be a reverse takeover in a sense though
Would not rule it out....
Regarding the BP or Shell potential involvement.
If any major was drilling Halifax, would with their conventional experts have cut and run from the halifax well when the DST issue arose or would they have done what Dr. T did and keep going. I think they would have abandoned the well and moved on forever leaving the resource to nature.
My point being they need Dr T in any deal, farm out or takeover.
In some respects our Dr T IS HUR and he's worth a lot.
"I believe the fireworks could be just around the corner."
"Given that management has already hinted that previous estimations were Ã¢â¬ÅconservativeÃ¢â¬Å, this update will surely make it harder than ever for prospective investors to remain on the fence."
"the probability of its shares multi-bagging from here Ã¢â¬â despite their already impressive 500% rise in 2016 Ã¢â¬â appears high"
"The possibility of it receiving an audacious takeover offer is still not out of the question either."
That's true Bloodhound, and maybe they will exercise the warrants. But they do have three years to exercise and a takeover would deliver them the payout anyway so I can't see them exercising just yet, and perhaps never. It's a handy little stash for them to have; off the radar. If they were to have a lean year they could exercise, sell and add a bit of profit to the fund.
Brent rocketing today again.Think at this share price the majors would be thinking a cheap takeover rather than a farm in. HUR has grafted all the hard work, 100p would easily buy us out.
I think the $400mln funding will be part placement, possibly part debt. I think there is also the option of a partner carry in the mix too, which is my preferred option at this stage. I don't want to see hur get tied-up in development ops, let a larger concern takeover EPS only. There are now plenty of barrels for hur to bargain with.
Most importantly, its the CPR which we need to put some definitive numbers to the resources HUR have unearthed. A few weeks away I'd imagine. so a little patience in order here. Watch how the broker/analyst notes come in after that.
So now starts a huge game of chicken, majors will be sniffing, do they takeover, farm in, step away, who blinks first, who breaks rank, this is going to be fascinating. As Malcy says though, the main thing is at the moment hur own 100 percent of this monster. And it is a monster.I think this will grind up to 100p now the valuation at the moment is ridiculous.
I like Malcy's target, 150p and 200p in a takeover.
I wish I was a geologist! Looks quite interesting though. Maybe BP or Shell might be interested in a takeover here? Just on the sidelines meself but thinking of putting a few grand in here.
I posted last night that I'm simply going to hold onto my shares and wait for a takeover, so price predictions are a bit irrelevant for me - it will be what it will be. But they are a bit of fun.
Look back at Edinburgh Oil and Gas and the Buzzard discovery. Alf Bissett kept a very tight ship.The discovery of Buzzard to the eventual takeover took five years. He even had an open offer at 136p and the price from when the drilling announcement was made rose from 32p to the eventual 314. There is a long way to go with this. This is still early days with this and the strategy battles have only just begun.
Hiddendepths, I did a rough estimate the other day using the areal size and how the ridge narrows in the centre and gets thicker and shallower at Halifax. Lancaster currently accounts for 25 to 33% of the areal extent so my personal view using the current CPR figures is around 1.5 billion.
However you an I both know that big fields tend to get bigger.
I still maintain HUR are now primed for takeover or at least the sale of the GLA
It's all luck, but it's a lot easier for those who have the funds and can spread their luck and risk; I'm way below that point now. Will have to stick with FBT and hope for their takeover and a 20 bagger.
Some of my friends will be doing well from todays HUR news, so I may gain a few free pints when I see them.
Well done all.
Don't trade this. Don't sell this. Just hold this until the takeover... whenever that is. Simples.
Gibso, Dragon went for Â£8 per share. I was invested from 1997 through to the takeover. (Nearly 20 years of holding).This has the potential to be much bigger than DGO and much much faster. At the time of takeover they had around 100k bopd being produced and around 540million shares.I can't for the life of me remember the reserves figure but they had done extended seismic S and they alluded to it being much much higher than was on the books.The 52% holder (ENOC) took it out.
This new Company structure gives opportunities for "Dividending Out" some of the smaller assets which currently have low values. Will require going to the High Court if they go down that route.
Also the structure should help Hurricane bring in multiple partners if they choose. Essentially then reducing the risk of a cheap takeover by a major by "Clouding the Group."
At the end of the Halifax drill we should be in a position to put a value on what we know we have, but I don't see that any valuation at this stage will be conclusive. Without further wells on Lincoln/Warwick and Lancaster/Halifax I don't see how we can conclusively prove that they are each connected large fields. To conclude a takeover for example, at this stage might risk underselling the assets. So I expect the company to press on with plans for the EPS, unless of course a suitable deal that retains Hurricane's interests in the fields is agreed. It all looks a bit messy at the moment but I suspect that a placing has now been promoted in the todo list and might be what is underlying the continued selling.
Yes, no more posting of RNS's please unless they contain the words or phrases:
Halifax, Gusher, FID, Takeover, Lancaster superb flow rates, Acquired more licences.
bloodhound "a sitting takeover target to boot" much more likely if Halifax is connected ,although I reckon they will want a high price in event of takeover, they seem to be putting farmin not too high, saying a little, they seem to want to remain in full control of this Lancaster field. Lots of oil as we know, big q as we move forward is how much can they recover of this pie. I would like to think at least 1.5b we will see, I remain long term, as you say we will get ups and downs, long term I feel it should create value. I stopped buying just in case they were to place a few shares for us pi I am quite overweight you see
"I am long term on this" Me too Laser as that's where I feel the real value here is. They'll be spikes up and down along the way of course there will but if the well's flow as expected this could be huge for HUR / us and a sitting takeover target to boot.
It's a TAKEOVER ATTEMPT
Exposed Optiva, Lenigas & Gunsynd. Takeover Plot of Zenith Energy! http://guerillainvesting.co.uk/2017/02/07/26498/
I only bought IAE mid Jan so on mixed minds about early takeover. I think this takeover is a big factor in our rise.If you look at Faroe, Dalek have @14% holding. So this looks like a build up of assets / investments in the North Sea. So bid speculation for Hur. If you look at premium offered for IAE, it's marginal. If that same margin were offered to our main share holders, I suspect they will be laughed out of the offices.
Ithaca Energy has agreed to a ÃÂ£519 million takeover offer from Israeli-listed Delek Group.
If Halifax is a success then a takeover becomes ever more likely IMO.
If BP are interested and they've been in the data room learning more about basement plays picking DT's brain then would they not want to drill the basement under Clair?
If Clair also has basement oil then BP would make a play for Hur IMO
On the question of the 23.3m warrants, as long as Crystal Amber remain confident about the prospects for the company they have no need to exercise them. It would only increase their problems of imbalance within their fund portfolio. By virtue of owning the warrants they already have title to any gains. Were a successful takeover offer for the company to emerge their gains would be paid out in full without their ever having to exercise them.
I hope an early takeover is avoided but our fate lies with CA and K.
I suspect most of us are just being optimistic. However on another board a geologist of sorts is pretty convinced this drill result will confirm good news.
The doc has studied the seismics so he must also be optimistic about the outcome. In the meantime HUR is sitting on so much oil I agree with ngms that we will not be allowed to develop. IMO a takeover awaits within the coming months.
"Hurricane stated clearly in releases they walked away from further negotiation with interested parties so they could gauge the true extent of the GLA resource."
Cashandcard - I suspect that's a part of the story, more like there was 'Big player' interest but the terms on offer weren't acceptable to HUR. Fortunately for us our resource base has and will continue to grow appreciably to the possible extent of one huge contiguous field.
What everybody wants to see is high quality production rates with the FPSO. When this happens HUR will either be taken out or move on with a partner.
Also given that Dr T has said Lancaster should be a 'Fantastic Producer' a partner or takeover could come much sooner.
Let's see what Halifax shows us.
Just my thoughts.
id be happy with either, ngms27. for an asset block sale rather than a takeover, for lancaster/linc/halifax, imo hur would take ~$2.5b(~ÃÂ£1.63b/~136p per sh) if halifax is successful; going on the basis of ~1b barrels 2P for the 3 permits/fields ($2.50/2P)
I'd think takeover more that farm out. I think the liquidity event will be this year.
This company is derisking before our very eyes with the drill-bit..
a safe political jurisdiction and a prime takeover target now
the majors will be sniffing around in 2017 if not now
Re AS I totally agree another example being his tweet about the Takeover Code .
Not very professional at all , more of an big mouth ego thing
Gary my view crystal amber will be waiting for an end game now either by a takeover or if not they will reduce a percentage of their holding to farmin partner,
The 30th November statement should be released in next few days
@ poundreamer. My view is 55p to 75p mid next year unless we are in takeover mode.First oil production in 1H2019 may well see us over the Â£ barrier but depends on how much we have given away in the interim. After that depends on how much and how quickly we can pump the black stuff and poo at that time.Stobie said today they can make good money at $60 bl so that's a pointer to future earnings.I'd like to see min 100k bopd 12 to 18 months from first main oil production, preferably from EPS being up and running.. You can play around with figures on spreadsheets but our first part is proving oil is there, how much oil there is, can it be produced and how cheaply..Currently I'd say that if we hit 100k bopd with oil 70-80US, no further dilution and a decent reserves, I'm hoping north of Â£3 and I'm being conservative., but I do not think we will get to the point of developing the field to its full potential..
Kandyman1. Have a read through annual reports and RNS's and you will have lots of info to be able to inform your decisions.I doubt anyone here is authorised to provide financial advice.Asking people here for a view is a little blindsided as we all believe we are going to make money so we may have rose tinted spectacles.Oil / reserves on takeover I'd budget in 3 usd per barrel as a starter. Multibagger, depends on your view. Oil exploration is high risk and you nee to weigh that up with reward, so those here believe that is one worth taking.Whilst the reserves and reports are positive, one bad drill result and future funding becomes harder, two bad results in a row and take your guess over how easy future funding will be....I'm invested here as I like the risk reward play with a timeline of end 2019 to see a decent reward. I think we will have Jo's and downs between now and then.Hope above is not condescending, it's not meant to be.
yes best of luck, I am here for long term, might suit me a takeover approach as it would put a stop on my monthly buying,i feel sure crystal amber will move on at the right price, this would give a good % of stock to the right buyer,
on the boat front supply vessel Stril polar has made good headway 2 hrs ahead of schedule be arriving rig soon Aberdeen to rig in less than 21HRS 45MINS , SIEM GARNETwill be following on and at the rig tonight 8pm
The early production system will primarily deliver "Economic Independence" for the Company.
The fact that by 2019 the Company will be able to "Self Fund" will mean that any perspective bidder will have to pay "Top Dollar" for this Company in the event of a takeover.