Hss Hire Share Discussion Threads

[tsmith2] 04/9/2015 08:17

DeanWatching Watching APR and in GLEN

[deanroberthunt] 04/9/2015 07:00

well if they can control costs, make some savings whilst increasing sales....then a 2016 fwd per of 4.9 and a silly cheap PEG of 0.1, with 4.8% yield.....could be a speculative punt even for the nrevous

[kingston78] 03/9/2015 22:21

Market Makers always try to keep a square book, especially when the market or a share is falling. They mark down prices more than usual to discourage sellers. They certainly don't want to buy shares from you if they see the price fall further.

Conversely, prices tend to go up very quickly on a tight squeeze if buyers return. MMs are happy to buy from you in the knowledge that they can sell your shares at a higher price. They encourage buyers by pushing up the share price.

The share price of HSS has steadied after a terrific fall. Yesterday's and today's price action tells me that the falling trend has stopped. There is a gentle signal that the trend is now reversing. Experience tells me that the herd instinct will follow. I conclude that HSS is now heading north and will jump up by 15-20% very quickly. It may take a little longer for it to reach my target of 100 p.

Good luck to all holders.

[deanroberthunt] 03/9/2015 20:28

Forecasts - Digital Outlook

Yr Ending Sales Pre-Tax PER PEG Yield
2015-12-31 316.10 13.75 6.98p 10.2 0.0 365% 1.84p 2.8%
2016-12-31 361.05 24.32 12.38p 4.9 0.1 77% 3.19p 4.8%

[deanroberthunt] 03/9/2015 20:06

SmithO

you ready for zee bounce ?

[tsmith2] 03/9/2015 16:58

Last 250,000 cleared late on?

[deanroberthunt] 03/9/2015 13:22

Chairman bought £50k at 173p back in June......you'd think he'd be adding now ? ...unless the former was just a token gesture.

[kingston78] 03/9/2015 13:07

I am looking at the share chart. The share has been down a little this morning but has recovered. So long as there is no further downward movement and the share holds at this level or better still moves higher, I am confident to say that the share price will recover to 100 p in due course. Sentiment and confidence mean everything. Every dog has its day.

[deanroberthunt] 03/9/2015 12:59

just need an intraday reversal and that'll be the short term bull signal.

[kingston78] 03/9/2015 12:28

Anyone can make money from the stock market. It all depends your point of entry. I don't think this business is to go bust. It would be unimaginable for a newly listed company to go bust so quickly. I am only looking for a price target of 100 p. As sentiment turns for the better buyers will come in and squeeze the price up to that level quickly. My timescale is by the end of this year.

[deanroberthunt] 03/9/2015 12:20

being controlled by the BOTs

[my retirement fund] 03/9/2015 12:10

Indeed, take a look at the most successful investors such as Warren Buffett who is not a contrarian in essence he looks for large companies which make steady profits but are unloved. Sadly that cannot be said here but I suppose the hook which seems to have netted the big bucks from the city is Exponent pretending this in in some way capable of producing steady profits.

The jury is well and truly going to be out for some time on that one.

[deanroberthunt] 03/9/2015 11:32

the biggest gains are, but equally so are the losses...

Thomas Cook is/was a good example, nearly 10 bagged in 9 mths for those who withstood the fear..

fwiw, this won't 10 bag!!!!

[jonwig] 03/9/2015 11:28

deanrobert - the best calls are generally contrarian, and indeed you may have this one right.

Perhaps I should add that, at 70 years, my risk aversion is fairly well developed!

[deanroberthunt] 03/9/2015 11:04

you and jonwig could have this bob on and I completely wrong, but that is my view and opinion, that is all....

[my retirement fund] 03/9/2015 09:44

LOL I think deanroberthunt is trying to convince himself there is some value here, whilst a few others are trying to talk themselves into believing the shareprice may be turning up simply because its not falling as fast as it had been in the last few weeks.

Quite funny really.

[deanroberthunt] 03/9/2015 08:21

and the senior bond note isn't due till 2019!!

Whilst I concur that the balance sheet is weak, there are a plethora of companies out there that are on the raggerty edge now or near term....

HSS has time to deliver their expansion as planned, and only time will tell whether it works or not and bear market pending.....

+ there's always the chance of new mgt and/or a takeover imvho....although the latter would probably be unpalatable for those in at IPO....but that's just plain tough, as it was overvalued at that point....

[deanroberthunt] 03/9/2015 08:13

covenants were almost covered by H1 EBITDA, it's hardly on the raggerty edge.

[deanroberthunt] 03/9/2015 08:11

and 6 x EBITDA is the lowest buyout multiple over the last 15 yrs on average....

[deanroberthunt] 03/9/2015 08:10

Jonwig

6 x EBITDA - DEBT = (6 x 60) - 197.2m = £162m mcap, or 103.8p / share

[tsmith2] 03/9/2015 08:09

store openings costs are front loaded...Seems like seller finishedTime to have fish

[jonwig] 03/9/2015 08:07

deanrobert - A buyer must acquire the debt of £173m. The tangible value of the company (net tangible assets less debt) is minus £193m.

A buyer at 100p would be paying £155m to acquire an asset deficit of minus £193m and take on a debt burden of £173m. The only buyer who might relish the idea would be one who could write off the debt - ie. the secured note holders in d-for-e swap. But they would get the company for free.

Actually, the secured debt covenants of EBITDA £35m are the safest bit, as they are unaffected by any accounting magic with intangibles. And maybe the holders would be willing to roll over in 2019.

But the company needs to protect EBITDA by stopping branch openings and associated plant expenditure. Current management probably can't be relied upon to do this.

Funnily enough there are precedents: Wincanton was in a similar situation which it climbed out of - but it took a new management team to achieve it.

[deanroberthunt] 03/9/2015 07:44

worth a squid all day long, most, if not all of the loss can be attributed to one off costs.....+ plant depreciation

won't take much of a turnaround, or the slightest positive slant to make this silly cheap.

even including the debt it's worth 100p/share on a buyout, just for starters