Horizonte Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[jailbird] 14/10/2016 11:55

Sorry got that wrong It is at 2.05p sellsThought buys at 2.5p.. lolBest get those glasses

[jailbird] 14/10/2016 11:49

Selling @2.5p?Friday tipped somewhere?

[strow] 14/10/2016 08:13

yes-very positive-they are house broker though...

[jailbird] 14/10/2016 07:37

150k...@2.32p tis morning....someone could not wait

[jailbird] 13/10/2016 23:45

positive note

[salmonn1] 13/10/2016 21:59

Strow, have you seen the Finncap Investment Note on HZM issued 3rd October?

"We have derived a valuation for Horizonte using DCF methods for the combined Araguaia project. We have then applied subjective risk discounts where appropriate to arrive at a target price. We calculate an unrisked value for Horizonte of £287m, equivalent to 30.5p per share. After applying risk discounts and rounding the result, we arrive at a target price of 12p per share.

We have set a base date of 1 January 2017 for the DCF calculation.

We have used an 8% discount rate for our base case valuation.

Summary of valuation of Horizonte’s assets (unrisked) US$m £m p/share Araguaia 287 221 30.5 Total 287 221 30.5

Source: finnCap

Target price We have applied a 60% risk discount to the unrisked valuation in order to generate a target price. The discount would normally represent a combination of project risk and country risk. However, in our view Brazil is a low-risk country for mining investment and no specific risk adjustment is required.

Summary of valuation of Horizonte’s assets (risk discounted basis) Undiscounted valuation (p/share) Risk discount Discounted valuation (p/share) Araguaia 30.5 60% 12.2 Total 30.5 12.2

Source: finnCap

In terms of project development, the completion of the PFS removed a considerable amount of risk, as all aspects of the combined Araguaia project have now been studied in some detail. In particular, the comprehensive metallurgical testwork programme has proved that the ore at Araguaia is suitable for the preferred RKEF process route. The PFS has confirmed that the project should generate a respectable rate of return at current nickel prices."

[strow] 13/10/2016 09:55

If youre mentioning it here now as increasing the gains have probably already been made-hzm therefore cheaper in comparison

[divmad] 13/10/2016 06:54

Unfortunately, Hzm is not benefitting from rapidly improving sentiment towards Nickel. But I know a stock that is. Sml. Wonder why it never gets mentioned here in comparison?

[strow] 12/10/2016 21:44

Thanks jailbird-really good news for us

[raymund] 11/10/2016 16:08

strow, thanks for that, yes, Retter's CV gives confidence and it will be interesting to see how he deals with expected fund raise. Clearly, the market awaits this and along with Ni market at present has prevented any share price recognition of the excellent PFS. re single or double, JM has always taken the single as being the realistic way forward for HZM on its own with sensible demand for capital; should someone else move in as many expect, no doubt they will be a heavyweight (Teck?) with sufficient resource for double and a cheaper bottom line.
You keep us well informed with the last three links - the term 'headless chickens' comes to mind! Clearly, mine construction in Indonesia is not very attractive economically and there can be no certainty as to the eventual outcome to Indonesia's change in tack. It seems that HZM is currently a bit 'between a rock and a hard place'; JM has always pushed the attractiveness on a combination of low price (now being slowly delivered!) and increasing Ni price and demand on the horizon but for the time being it seems stuck there! I have, as you and others have done, built up quite a large position but believe it is still best to stay here for the long haul, uncomfortable though it is.

[strow] 11/10/2016 13:02

No one has really talked about the "doubling capacity" optionality with a second line,since the pfs was announced-I assume this would more than double the NPV as it certainly should not double labour costs and the additional capex required to create it is definitely not the same again.
Any thoughts anybody ?

[strow] 11/10/2016 12:48

"even if indonesia does allow limited ore exports in 2017,capital economics still expects the market to be in deficit and is still sticking to its forecast price of $12,000 per tonne by year end"

[strow] 09/10/2016 21:11

I was thinking that it just wasnt happening for Horizonte on that front Raymund as the timing was very co-incidental with what had been hoped to be a bfs fund raise announcement with the pfs result announcement.
Good for us I would imagine as Mr Retter would appear to have a good C.V.
Talk about Indonesia allowing miners who are building smelters to ship up to 15 million tonnes of 1.8% graded ore to China from 2017.
What we have to ask ourselves is what this will mean to the market and the Nickel price.Before the ban 60 million tonnes per anuum was being shipped and it completely crippled the market.
Interestingly none of the companies building smelters support this decision outcome should it come true as it will depress the Nickel price further and actually decrease their operating profits now and in the future.
I suppose that just because the government allows them to do it,doesnt mean that they will-they could decide not to and save themselves and everyone else.
Will be very interesting to see how all this pans out-the worlds Nickel producers will be watching intently and it could be the trigger that forces some more mine shut downs when the carrot of much higher nickel prices disappears for good.

[raymund] 09/10/2016 14:45

Don't think I've seen any mention here of the recent change in CFO, any views anyone? At AGMs, I always found Jeffrey an enthusiastic member of the team keen to engage with shareholders; he has also been helpful to me via email on occasion. Is this just a career move for him or are there any other implications for HZM?

[strow] 08/10/2016 20:55

Thats 1% or 20,000 tonnes of world Nickel production gone then each year on a recurring basis-well found Twigs

[twigs3] 08/10/2016 15:46

large mine shutting due to low nickel prices.

[jailbird] 07/10/2016 08:08

just saw that 1m trade @ 2p(sell) from yesterday

[twigs3] 06/10/2016 09:54

Yes it was a good PFS, I personally think HZM will take it to BFS the probably be taken over, will be interesting to see if Teck or glencore take part in the next fundraising if I remember rightly Teck didn't take part in the last one,so if they do they could well have they eye on HZM.

[jailbird] 06/10/2016 08:53

I am 100% convinced there is a buyer in the background now.
Liquidity has certainly improved after the PFS has ben announced.

I can sell 250k today...not possible without paying less than the cuurent bid at time of asking - this was before the PFS.