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HZD Horizon Discovery Group Plc

184.50
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Horizon Discovery Group Plc LSE:HZD London Ordinary Share GB00BK8FL363 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 184.50 184.50 185.00 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Horizon Discovery Share Discussion Threads

Showing 576 to 599 of 1475 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
28/11/2016
13:58
Rambutan, thanks for posting the link. I didn't know about it - I'll check it out...
kestelmill
28/11/2016
13:24
kestemill, did you listen to the interim results presentation? The CEO did address some of the issues you mention.
rambutan2
28/11/2016
13:10
As someone relatively new to HZD, thanks for taking the trouble to post Kestelmill, much appreciated.
daz
28/11/2016
12:30
I was on a long train journey on Friday so used the time to have a good look at all the reports and interims of HZD to work out what is going on here. These are my conclusions and thoughts.

1) The last interim gave revenue guidance of £24-26M but also said that revenues would be reduced by £2.7M in 2016 due to restructuring. This was effectively a profit warning - analysts were expecting more like £27-29M revenue and associated profit (loss) - and that is why the share price went down so much.
2) There is a restructuring process and an initiative to make £5M cost savings (£3M from closing down Boston). There is significant execution risk attached to this.
3) CEO has stated EBITDA will be positive in 2017. This reads as, EBITDA will be more than £0, but not by much. Analysts may well have been expecting more.
4) Even if positive EBITDA is achieved, there was £7.4M depreciation and amortisation in 2015. We can expect similar or higher figures every year for many years to come. This means HZD has to make >£8M EBITDA to truly break even on their P+L. Note there are £48M of Goodwill and intangible assets currently on the balance sheet; it looks like they are amortising over 10 years.
5) HZD has a strong technology licence position in gene editing but since the environment and, in particular, Crispr technology is still evolving and has an unclear IP situation, they may have to invest further in the future to protect their position. Also, they may have to, or decide to (since they are acquisitive), do further acquistions. This would create further complexity/risk.
6) There are clear current issues with service revenues. The stream of RNS telling us they have new business is reassuring - but these cannot be material to the revenue situation or they would have said so in the RNS. The company makes £20M revenues so you would expect some wins in the course of their ordinary business.


On the other hand:
a) they should be cash generative from 2017
b) these are growing markets and technologies which are yet to be fully realised
c) they are very well positioned in gene editing and NGS
d) there are potential additional upsides in the shape of Avvinity and the £200M+ of future royalties (although I am not putting any value on these at present)


If HZD can grow revenues 25% for the next 3 years they will easily justify their current valuation. I believe they can do this so my overall conclusion is that this remains a good investment at the current share price

kestelmill
24/11/2016
11:40
What more could they do on IR? They are posting good news every 5 mins. Hopefully it is simply that the IIs have decided they can't wait for HZD and have decided to get out, depressing the share price. I guess we will find out if something is afoot in due course.
kestelmill
24/11/2016
11:40
What more could they do on IR? They are posting good news every 5 mins. Hopefully it is simply that the IIs have decided they can't wait for HZD and have decided to get out, depressing the share price. I guess we will find out if something is afoot in due course.
kestelmill
24/11/2016
10:56
clearly not many buyers as it drops every day at the moment.. a concerted IR effort needed
pjj71
23/11/2016
11:02
Also attracting buyers though PJ...
deltrotter
23/11/2016
10:55
more dumping.. maybe a new IR resource is needed..
pjj71
18/11/2016
02:12
Am baffled at current price action - share overhang? bad news leak? equity raise? My bet is on the former, but horrible surprises seem to be aplenty at the mo.

LAUSANNE, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK – 17 November 2016: Sophia Genetics, the global leader in Data-Driven Medicine, and Horizon Discovery Group plc (LSE: HZD) ("Horizon"), the world-leader in the application of gene editing technologies, today announced they have entered into a new partnership to improve the quality of Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) based genetic testing in oncology patient samples.

rambutan2
17/11/2016
21:09
Welcome ih_546016, there are few publicly available stocks that give exposure to CRISPR. HZD bought a licence and had crispr inventor honchos on their SAB. But then someone found technologies similar to but improving on crispr and which weren't covered by the patents/HZD licence. Not sure what the status is now, whether these new versions are out there yet. Any idea? Would mean another expensive licence to buy.
kestelmill
17/11/2016
17:56
Bought my first shares today, interested about crispr and found this stock. :)
ih_546016
17/11/2016
09:56
Thank you Kestelmill for your perspective on the RNS. It can be difficult to read the tea leaves correctly.
mamcw
17/11/2016
09:41
Regarding maths mamcw, you are a glass half-full kind of a guy!

-The up-front will be more like average £60K since it is "mid to high" rather than high. (£75K would be high).

-The up-fronts probably pertain to the "programmes" of assay development rather than per assay.

-Customers may be developing 3 to 4 assays but not all of these will reach market - some will fail development. A conservative view is that 2 per manufacturer reach launch. Development pf each assay will presumably take a year or two.

-Regarding other players China players, it doesn't say HZD has been approached by 20-30 (or indeed anyone if you look at the precise wording - it says 'with' instead of 'by'), it estimates 20-30 other players exist.

Still, this is positive news and I don't see any reason why HZD shouldn't be the world leader in NGS Reference standards. If I was a player in China I would strongly consider them. I don't really see any alternatives apart from Seracare and Thermo. Anyone know of others?

kestelmill
17/11/2016
09:27
True del... but would be nice to have a blue day here once in a while ;)
pjj71
17/11/2016
08:15
The stock market - a vehicle for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.
deltrotter
17/11/2016
07:57
Lets hope this seller is done soon.. getting very tedious...
pjj71
16/11/2016
17:04
Yup ... and the share price resumes its downward trend. All very dispiriting for an investor (and management, I suspect).
mamcw
16/11/2016
15:31
mamcw - from Pro active today:

"As with previous agreements Horizon will receive upfront payments (mid/high tens of thousands of pounds) for each product entering development with the potential for six figure revenue per product per annum upon commercial launch of product," said analyst Paul Cuddon.

With 14mln new cancer patients diagnosed each year, and with the increased affordability of DNA sequencing, it is not inconceivable to see around 30% of patients/tumours being sequenced, he said.

Assuming $500 per test and around 10% margin to Horizon for supplying the Reference Standard, Numis derive a potential market opportunity of over $200mln in cancer alone.

Panmure Gordon repeated a 'buy' stance and target of 205p.

deltrotter
16/11/2016
10:34
mamcw

As they always, if it looks too good it probably is, but I sincerely hope not!

small crow
16/11/2016
09:55
So the maths of the Chinese deal is 3 manufacturers, each initially paying HZD a one-off fee of c. £75k per assay in the development and clinical trial programmes. Once approval is gained, they then pay HZD at least £100k pa for 5 years

Each manufacturer will be developing 3-4 new assays each year.

Maths as follows?

3 -4 new assays x 3 manufacturers x £75k = £675k - £900k base income pa

Assume 2 get approval each year (starting 2018), with each approved assay worth at least £100,000 pa to HZD for a minimum of 5 years per assay.

So year 1 = 3 x 2 x £100,000 (at least ) = say £600,000
By year 5 this is worth £3m+ of recurring income plus £675k - £900k of base income.

The final line in the RNS states that HZD has been approached by 20-30 other players in this market for similar deals. IF these are converted, then we are not looking at £3m - £4m of revenues, but £30m - £40m of additional RECURRING revenue, which is worth a fortune.

Or have I got this all wrong??

mamcw
16/11/2016
08:47
They are just getting on with business PJJ71 - let them get on with it. Their time will come.
deltrotter
16/11/2016
08:41
Another good RNS and still barely a blip.. come on HZD time to rocket!!!!
pjj71
15/11/2016
15:41
Don't forget this share price should have been going up due to exchange rate benefits, having most sales in EUR and USD and repatriating to GBP. So actual share price performance has been even worse than it looks.

You could be excused for wondering if some bad stuff is going on at the company that people like us aren't aware of. But actually the share price went down sharply on the latest report that service revenue had stalled and the company was still loss-making.

I still believe the company is a decent product play and the service revenue issue could be a blip due to moving some of the capabilities to Cambridge from USA.

Anyone close to the company got any insights?

kestelmill
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