Homeserve Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 04/12/2011 16:37

Simon Cawkwell - 9 Nov'11 - 274: I am short at 232.5p. I expect the sequence will be that an insolvency specialist will tell them to raise a lot of new capital, absent which the board will have to put the company into administration/liquidation. There will be nothing back for shareholders. Simon Cawkwell

Simon, are you still utterly convinced that your short will be a highly profitable bet ? Just curious !

[kristini2] 30/11/2011 21:40

this could trend up for weeks before the scale of the review becomes apparent

[grahamburn] 30/11/2011 14:42

Surprising price behaviour today - as of now, the price is effectively up 8.5p allowing for the fact it is trading ex-dividend. Much stronger volume on the buy side today shown in published trades than in recent days.

The general market sentiment since 1.30pm has helped but following the expected dropon opening, the price has been positive for most the day.

[kristini2] 29/11/2011 22:55

I am convinced these will go lower, a lot lower. However not an easy share to short as the timing will be dificult.

Unlike thomas cook which was a no brainer sell in to Monday's bounce

[grahamburn] 29/11/2011 19:32

Doubt whether there can be many existing (or new) shareholders who will be keeping/buying shares just for a 3.63p interim dividend: not a large enough return to encourage dividend arbitrage.

Volumes seem fairly even today but there is clearly buying pressure on the market makers (Invesco buying again behind the scenes?). A rise of 8p+ is well in excess of the prospective ex-dividend fall tomorro, so holders should, in theory, ignoring other market issues, be better off by staying in. However, there may well be more selling tomorrow as the shares trade ex-dividend, as some holders exit.

[kristini2] 29/11/2011 19:02

bizarre the buying of these shares..........
tommorrow we will see whether the selling picks up as investors secure the divi they have been waiting for?

[grahamburn] 28/11/2011 16:11

Ex-dividend 30 November
Record date 2 December
Dividend paid 3 January

[grahamburn] 28/11/2011 09:43

Invesco still accumulating so presumably quite relaxed about the situation. Another 3.3 million shares acquired on 24 November taking their holding to over 21% which takes their purchases since the original "problem" announcement to over 10 million shares. They'll also get the dividend which is worth noting as often major institutional-type holders would be more interested in acquiring at a lower price after ex-dividend date rather than securing the dividend.

Strange, though, that the trade(s) not showing on the trade data on advfn, so maybe it was executed off market with another holder. Have to wait for a further announcement?

[edmondj] 25/11/2011 09:06

I have a ten year-old boiler and its competent independent servicer told me it was all working in line with spec and should last at least another ten years.

No more insurers and their nonsense, for me.

[kristini2] 25/11/2011 09:03

my thoughts are that there could be a sell off after the divi payment which is due 3rd December

[kristini2] 24/11/2011 07:38

FACT, i personally experienced their deception in 2010 when one of the tele sales guys being aware of the age of my bolier was prepared to offer cover and take my money, even though my boiler was too old to meet their terms/conditions. This deception has been going on for a long period.

GB, wiseup

[lennonsalive] 23/11/2011 21:52

Fact: They missold and didnt deal with the complaints, does not make them a very trustworthy company. I expect the management knew about it for quite sometime.

[superstardj] 23/11/2011 17:40

Well said gb

[grahamburn] 22/11/2011 20:37

SERIOUS investors and SERIOUS critics/downers/shorters should invest an hour of their precious time to listen to the company's results presentation followed by a thorough question and answer session with knowledgeable analysts (as opposed to lightweight bulletin board posters). (Easily accessed on the Homeserve website.)

After doing that, then a serious and informed discussion could ensue on this board based on genuine facts and information. Of course, facts and information can still be open to interpretation depending upon where individuals start from and their level of expertise, but at least inuendo and rumour should be minimised.

[dusseldorf] 22/11/2011 16:57

bubble picker - not sure I understand. If you are the holder of the short position, your opening position will be adjusted - you are liable for the 'loss' of the underlying shareholder for the dividend the holder would have otherwise have received.

I've had this before on e.g. IG Index on an ex-divended date my short position 'opening' was lowered by the corresponding number of pence for the dividend - the net effect being I moved closer to my stop and the 'equity' in my position reduced by the dividend amount - what the price does is anyones guess - probably drop by the same amount meaning the net effect could be negligible - but was in e.g. HSBC and it rose after ex-div date once - obviously completely different situation.

[kristini2] 22/11/2011 16:52

by virtue of the fact that pwc is overseeing the review the fsa has stepped in. They would otherwise have been left to deal with the review unsupervised

[bubble pricker] 22/11/2011 15:49

Duesseldorf, no it's not like that. The short position is the short position. All things being equaly the shares will trade down 3.75p on the ex-divi date (not the record date), so the short position will benefit from this. But also the holder of the short position has to pay the dividend.

kristini2, on what basis are you saying it is "unlikely to unwind further to the downside"? Just because something has gine down does not mean it cannot go down further. HSV are in terrible shape, their reputation destroyed by the mis-selling. Their market cap is still over £700m. If their profit collapses under the fallout from the mis-selling, their market cap, and thus the share price can go down 50% easily. Notwithstanding that, I have closed half my short position, as a quick 40 points in one day are not to be scoffed at.

[henryatkin] 22/11/2011 12:50

but that divi gets added to your spreadbet account so no gain.

[dusseldorf] 22/11/2011 12:43

bp - good luck either way, but factor in on 2nd Dec is the record date an interim divi of 3.75p to all holders on that date - I guess as a short, the divi effect would be deducted from your position on that day? reverse for longs

[kristini2] 22/11/2011 11:58

BP
can you see this moving higher? surely better to take a future position and hold as it is likely to unwind further to the downside?

[bubble pricker] 22/11/2011 11:42

MJ19, I applaud your great technical analysis skills "chart looks as though it could turn up". FAIL.

I shorted yesterday at 250, as it was a no brainer that the results would disappoint. Tempted to close now for a quick 30 point gain.