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Real-Time news about Hirco (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|horndean eagle: long term holder unfortunately. I eventually expect to get a pay out here. One way or another. Hiranandani has enough money and assets to go after if he decides to screw us over. Either we get control of the projects or get him to pay up compensation. Either would result in a multiple of the current share price.|
|solar_br: Why do I get the impression we could be about to get some bad news here!?
Share price very quietly trickling down.|
|kenny: nilip - I do think HRCO will still exist in 2021 albeit it may have been taken over and have new owners. As Weiss have paid up to 67p per share and I trust their judgement - because they are value investors following Ben Graham's principles - I am content to be patient and await events. That is not to say I have not carried out extensive research myself, because I have.
As for delisting, one of my very best investments I held and continue to hold is shares in a company that delisted in July 2009; called Delek Global Real Estate (DGRE). Since delisting the shareholders have had 8 dividends totalling 50% of the price at delisting and 3 share buybacks totalling 75% of my purchase price. Even after the buybacks, I retain a substantial investment likely to pay me 17% per annum in dividends (or 100% return on the basis I have, to date, received all my original capital plus 21% - excluding the value of my remaining holding).
Therefore, if the circumstances are right a delisting should hold no fear for an investor as Warren Buffet said; invest as if the stock market will be closed for 5 years after you invest. He also said; in the short term the stock market is a voting machine but in the long term it is a weighing machine.
The DGRE story might sound a great outcome but it was scary too at times and it took a long time to come good. To see shares I had bought at 82p go to 19p within 18 months; to subsequently reject an attempt by the main shareholder to apply pressure to acheive a buyout on the cheap at 50p under threat of a) delisting and b) never paying another dividend post delisting, and hold on through all that is not easy on the nerves.
Also, I really should not have invested as much as I did or kept buying as the share price went down. However, like HRCO, Delek is a property company so I knew the assets were there it was just a question of when the shareholders would benefit from those assets, importantly, the question was never would they benefit from those assets.
So weigh everything up and stay invested if HRCO meets your personal investment criteria but sell your shares if it does not. If you sell, learn from it, in particular re-examine the factors that lead you to buy in the first place in order to tease out the error in that buy assessment. In my early days of investing I too was swayed by short term price movements and emotional sentiment.
I cannot tell you when a shareholder in HRCO will benefit partially or wholly from the NAV of 550p. I can assure you they will eventually because that value is there and, unlike a trading company, the value of the property may go up and down but it is unlikely to depreciate to nil. That "eventually" seems to be 2021 at the latest and it seems to me that at the 62p average I paid for my holding, I have a sufficient margin of safety.
You will note that my average price of 62p looks silly compared to today's buy price of about 55p. I freely confess I am hopeless at market timing (for which also look at the DGRE story above). Market timing, short term investing, shorting, derivatives etc is not my area of expertise and neither do I wish to get involved in gambling rather than investing. I am also not a great believer in charting. The things I look for are high yield shares or, as with HRCO, being able to buy a £1 for a lot less than a £1 when it is combined with a near certainty of realisation of value at some future date (even if that exit is post a delisting).|
|kenny: I am invested here until at least 2015 because it could take that long - if not until 2021 per the family - for true value to be reflected in the share price. Of course, we may get a settlement with the family or dividend cashflow before 2015/2021 but this is not really a share to buy/sell based upon charting or as a short term investment.|
|nilip: This company is just so undervalued it's crazy !
Value will out in the end - irrespective - it always does ... soon I suspect as markets are starting to wake up to value stocks again.
HRCO should be trading at a multiple of it's current mkt cap imo.
Hardly surprising Weiss have been buying up so much stock recently. No brainer at current share price levels irrespective of background shannanigans.|
Clearly the market is ecstatic about the departure of HSBC as nomad.
It appears that HSBC's interest here may not have been quite so innocent I suspect and there's obviously more to this than meets the eye of the PI.
With a NAV of circa £7.00, Hirco's current share price of a meagre 65p is already bordering on the insanely rediculous. Even if we assume the NAV 'may' incorporate some exaggeration ... let's half it to circa £3.50 - the current share price still looks insanely cheap and rediculous.
A 120% rise (to compare with your HAIK analogy) would take HRCO to ~ 140p ... would still fail to reflect a true valuation for HRCO.
Clearly Hirco is trading on a dirt cheap valuation.
AIMHO. DYOR etc, etc....|
|nilip: Long a few.
Large volumes trades going through and share price ticking up nicely despite general market downturn. Clearly indicative of something positive materialising behind the scenes.
free stock charts from www.advfn.com
Would not be surprised at all to see this mimic the bounce around mid 2009 which took the share price from near current levels of ~60p on a recovery trajectory to back over 200p.|
|scburbs: I had no idea that Chennai house prices had been rising so strongly since 2007. Clearly HRCO's development is sufficiently far away from Chennai to be exempt from this trend!
Rather unusual to see the share price up today.
"Interest rate rises are beginning to bite in India, and housing markets in major cities weakened in 2010.
Yet this hasn't broken the clear pattern since the relaunch of the National Housing Bank residential property index (NHB Residex) in 2007:
* successful growing cities have seen house prices rise rapidly (Chennai, Mumbai, Pune, Faridabad)
* prices in some other cities have fallen strongly (Jaipur, Hyderabad, Kochi, Bengalaru).
The contrasts are really striking. House prices have more than doubled in Chennai from 2007 to today (with the index moving from 100 to 204). During the same period the house price index fell from 100 to 66 in Jaipur."
|kenmitch: Good to see paulypilot on board, along with the also excellent nickcduk who first alerted me to these around 50p when on a discount around 90%. Pity you weren't aware of Hirco then Paul!
I can't add anything to what Paul and others have posted, except a reminder that there could be something wrong. It is either with the share price - which is what I think and why I continue to hold - or there is something wrong that some in the market know about that we don't.
fwiw since Paul says he is going to check UCP out, I think Hirco is much more transparent than UCP. I hold UCP too and have been in and out of it from a seemingly crazy 8p when the discount to NAV must have been nearly 100% - but unlike with Hirco their developments seem much more early stage. Also UCP Management - one or two responded to emails suggesting they might like to show a bit of confidence by buying some UCP shares, said they would, but from memory still haven't. Which since the share price is so low begs the question why not. Also the promised share buying by Nectrus has been very lukewarm so far.
One reason for the disappointing Hirco share price performance post results despite the positive outlook, and turn round from loss to profit, could well be disappointment that the expected dividend has now been delayed at least in to next year. My guess fwiw is that a dividend payment when it is announced will give the share price a big lift. But it could be a good idea to get in ahead of that rise for risk of missing some of it, even if it means the shares not doing much for a few more months.
As long as there is no hidden nasty to explain the still crazy share price.....
Paul. I'm a bit surprised you haven't posted on Hirco on your own bb as replies there could be interesting and someone there might even think they know why the share price is so low - beyond the usual reason of because it is an Indian share traded on AIM.|
|mark1000: A potential problem I can see if you accept that Hirandani will stage an MBO for HRCO it is in their interest to go slow on the development hold back on the dividend and see the share price drop lower making any bid by definition cheaper. I was disappointed that the sales update was not stronger - I can see the dilema they need the acheivable sales price to keep on rising so they do spook those that have already committed and at the same time the price is an obstacle to selling phase 1 out. Sooner or late the recent surge in Indian Real Estate must re-float the HRCO share price.|
Hirco share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange