Highland Gold Mining Ld Share Discussion Threads

[dt1010] 15/12/2016 08:21

it will take a few days maybe weeks...srp...to put the rate rise behind us.

gold and silver will move higher in q1 17 though.

been a hell of a journey this year!

Personally I can see this back at close to 100p before recovery

[garycook] 15/12/2016 03:31

srp,Patience needed.We will get pull backs.But has we both know Gold at $1142 should rise next year,and with it a rising share price Also we have the Dividend to look forward too.

[srpactive] 14/12/2016 21:33

Interest rate rise, now completed, excellent lets put
it behind and move higher.

dyor

regards

active

[srpactive] 14/12/2016 16:57

God, I am good, talking to myself now, what next.

143p, then 155p.

dyor

regards

active

[srpactive] 14/12/2016 10:30

Get ready for take off.

dyor

[11023154] 13/12/2016 19:33

All western media...?

[dilbert dogbreadth] 12/12/2016 18:29

What do you mean by Russian bashers?

[srpactive] 12/12/2016 14:34

As soon as the Russia bashers open down we go.

dyor

[chipperfrd] 12/12/2016 10:20

srpactive,

As I will always seek to buy at low valuations and reduce at fair or overvalued levels, it makes sense to have a reasonably qualified opinion as to what may be a fair valuation for any stock within a sector.

The above method is just another way for me to try and reach value conclusions to guide my own holdings. I have only assembled it over the last week, although I did already have a financial workbook of all those stocks, plus their operational data, which obviously gave me an excellent starting point with all the individual metrics.

I currently own 13 of the above stocks in the top 25. So it looks like I ought to also consider some of the others.
Chip

ps. I used a default score of 33 for any metrics that had negative values (quite a few for PER!).

[srpactive] 12/12/2016 09:55

So what do you expect from your data?

regards

[chipperfrd] 12/12/2016 09:50

One useful stock valuation method is VC1 (Value Composite #1) which scores the 5 financial ratios:
PER (price/earnings), PBV (price/book), PSR, (price/sales), Ev/EBITDA (Enterprise Value/Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation), PCF (Price/Cash Flow).

I have taken these ratios (metrics) from 66 PM producers and scored them relative to each other with lowest being the most undervalued.

The resulting table of all these scores is shown below for latest financial reports and market prices for all stocks as of Friday's close.

I have included the averages for these 5 metrics for the S&P 500 so that it can act as a calibration for these stocks against a major general index.

The 'Total' column is the resulting VC1 score and the table is sorted from lowest valuation. So HGM is currently 5th and the S&P is 42.

The 'Mult' column is a bit 'tongue in cheek', but is the estimated share price gain required to equal the S&P.

Table 2: VALUE Composite Table of PM Producers. TOTAL = relative under/over valuation.

Updated 10/12/2016
Stock name ...... Code .. PER . PBV . PSR . Ev/EBITDA .. PCF . TOTAL . Mult
Medusa .......... MML . ... 1 ... 3 ... 2 ......... 1 .... 1 .... 9 .. 9.9
Trans Siberian .. TSG . ... 3 ... 6 ... 4 ......... 3 .... 4 ... 20 .. 4.1
Caledonia ....... CMCL. ... 4 ... 9 ... 3 ......... 3 .... 3 ... 21 .. 4.5
Harmony ......... HMY . ... 8 ... 4 ... 2 ......... 5 .... 3 ... 22 .. 4.3
Highland ........ HGM . ... 4 ... 6 ... 6 ......... 6 .... 3 ... 25 .. 3.5
Serabi .......... SRB . .. 12 ... 6 ... 3 ......... 3 .... 3 ... 27 .. 3.8
Petropavlovsk ... POG . .. 10 ... 6 ... 2 ......... 6 .... 5 ... 29 .. 3.1
Goldfields ...... GV .. ... 9 .. 11 ... 5 ......... 6 .... 5 ... 35 .. 2.5
Resolute ........ RSG . ... 3 .. 20 ... 5 ......... 4 .... 4 ... 35 .. 3.3
Anglo Asian ..... AAZ . .. 27 ... 4 ... 2 ......... 3 .... 1 ... 37 .. 7.1
Centamin ........ CEY . ... 5 .. 12 .. 10 ......... 6 .... 6 ... 38 .. 2.2
Kirkland Lake ... KL .. ... 8 .. 15 ... 7 ......... 6 .... 5 ... 40 .. 2.3
Mandalay ........ MND . .. 19 ... 9 ... 4 ......... 5 .... 4 ... 41 .. 2.7
Avocet .......... AVM . ... 1 .. 33 ... 0 ......... 6 .... 1 ... 42 .. 9.2
Patagonia ....... PGD . ... 6 .. 20 ... 3 ......... 6 .... 8 ... 43 .. 2.1
Yamana .......... AUY . .. 20 ... 5 ... 5 ......... 9 .... 4 ... 43 .. 2.8
Silver Standard . SSRI. .. 15 ... 7 ... 6 ......... 7 .... 9 ... 43 .. 2.0
OceanaGold ...... OGC . ... 8 .. 11 ... 9 ......... 9 .... 8 ... 45 .. 1.8
Hochschild ...... HOC . .. 14 .. 15 ... 6 ......... 6 .... 5 ... 45 .. 2.2
Shanta .......... SHG . .. 33 ... 7 ... 2 ......... 2 .... 2 ... 46 .. 5.2
Pan African ..... PAF . ... 7 .. 18 ... 6 ......... 9 ... 11 ... 50 .. 1.6
St Barbara ...... SBM . ... 4 .. 32 ... 6 ......... 5 .... 4 ... 51 .. 2.6
AngloGold ....... AU .. .. 21 .. 14 ... 4 ......... 8 .... 5 ... 51 .. 2.2
Orosur .......... OMI . .. 33 ... 4 ... 1 ......... 8 .... 6 ... 52 .. 3.7
SilverCorp ...... SVM . .. 14 .. 14 .. 11 ......... 9 .... 6 ... 53 .. 1.8
Regis Res ....... RRL . ... 7 .. 25 ... 9 ......... 7 .... 7 ... 54 .. 1.8
Troy Res ........ TRY . .. 33 ... 5 ... 5 ......... 8 .... 3 ... 54 .. 3.1
Tahoe Res ....... TAHO. .. 11 .. 10 .. 13 ........ 10 ... 16 ... 60 .. 1.4
Pan American .... PAAS. .. 14 .. 16 .. 11 ........ 10 ... 11 ... 62 .. 1.3
Acasia .......... ACA . .. 33 .. 10 ... 7 ......... 6 .... 6 ... 63 .. 1.9
Newcrest ........ NCM . .. 19 .. 13 .. 11 ........ 13 .... 9 ... 65 .. 1.4
Gold Res ........ GORO. .. 14 .. 20 .. 10 ........ 10 ... 11 ... 65 .. 1.3
Coeur Mining .... CDE . .. 11 .. 23 ... 8 ........ 13 ... 12 ... 67 .. 1.2
Northern Star ... NST . ... 8 .. 40 ... 9 ......... 5 .... 5 ... 68 .. 2.0
Newmont ......... NEM . .. 33 .. 11 ... 9 ........ 11 .... 6 ... 70 .. 1.6
Evolution ....... EVN . .. 33 .. 15 ... 7 ........ 11 .... 5 ... 71 .. 1.8
Barrick ......... ABX . .. 34 .. 16 ... 7 ......... 8 .... 7 ... 72 .. 1.6
Hecla ........... HL .. .. 21 .. 14 .. 12 ........ 15 ... 10 ... 73 .. 1.2
Silver Lake ..... SLR . .. 41 .. 15 ... 5 ......... 7 .... 6 ... 73 .. 1.9
Kingsgate ....... KCN . .. 33 ... 5 ... 1 ........ 33 .... 1 ... 73 .. 6.5
Sandstorm ....... SAND. .. 10 .. 10 .. 32 ........ 10 ... 15 ... 77 .. 1.4
S&P 500 avge .... S&P . .. 11 .. 25 ... 7 ........ 14 ... 23 ... 80 .. 1.0
Klondex ......... KDX . .. 23 .. 19 .. 13 ........ 13 ... 12 ... 81 .. 1.1
Avino ........... ASM . .. 36 ... 8 ... 6 ......... 9 ... 26 ... 85 .. 1.4
Endevour Silver . EXK . .. 22 .. 30 ... 9 ........ 12 ... 14 ... 87 .. 1.0
Agnico Eagle .... AEM . .. 38 .. 16 .. 13 ........ 13 .... 9 ... 89 .. 1.2
Endevour Gold ... EDV . .. 33 .. 15 ... 8 ........ 18 ... 15 ... 89 .. 1.0
Randgold ........ RRS . .. 19 .. 17 .. 21 ........ 18 ... 17 ... 92 .. 0.9
Fortuna ......... FSM . .. 28 .. 18 .. 14 ........ 14 ... 23 ... 96 .. 0.9
Eldorado ........ EGO . .. 33 ... 5 .. 11 ........ 21 ... 27 ... 97 .. 1.4
Silver Wheaton .. SLW . .. 19 .. 14 .. 32 ........ 21 ... 15 .. 103 .. 0.9
First Majestic .. AG .. .. 33 .. 20 .. 17 ........ 15 ... 19 .. 105 .. 0.8
Fresnillo ....... FRES. .. 19 .. 38 .. 21 ........ 16 ... 13 .. 108 .. 0.8
Avesoro ......... AUE . .. 33 ... 7 ... 6 ........ 33 ... 33 .. 112 .. 1.0
Polymetal ....... POLY. ... 7 .. 50 .. 12 ........ 11 ... 32 .. 113 .. 0.9
Goldbridges ..... GBGR. .. 33 .. 13 .. 13 ........ 33 ... 33 .. 125 .. 0.5
Goldcorp ........ GG .. .. 80 ... 7 .. 11 ........ 14 ... 15 .. 126 .. 1.3
China Nonferr ... CNG . .. 33 .. 38 .. 33 ........ 33 .... 2 .. 139 .. 2.9
Excellon ........ EXN . .. 33 .. 30 .. 15 ........ 33 ... 33 .. 144 .. 0.3
Alexco .......... AXU . .. 33 .. 12 .. 38 ........ 33 ... 33 .. 149 .. 0.4
Royal Gold ...... RGLD. .. 33 .. 17 .. 41 ........ 41 ... 26 .. 157 .. 0.6
Franco Nevada ... FNV . .. 34 .. 21 .. 55 ........ 25 ... 22 .. 158 .. 0.7
Kinross ......... KGC . . 139 ... 8 ... 4 ......... 7 .... 4 .. 161 .. 2.6
Americas ........ USA . .. 33 .. 10 ... 5 ........ 85 ... 33 .. 166 .. 0.8
Perseus ......... PRU . .. 33 ... 7 ... 8 ....... 138 ... 19 .. 205 .. 1.2
Great Panther ... GPL . .. 33 .. 35 .. 16 ....... 121 ... 29 .. 234 .. 0.4
Beadell ......... BDR . .. 15 .. 15 ... 6 ........ 10 . 3492 . 3539 .. 1.0

Metrics scores are rounded to whole numbers to reduce table size, so Total may not appear as exact sum.
S&P 500 averages for the 5 metrics are included in order to provide a calibration to a general stock index.
MULT is the gain required to bring each stock into line with the S&P averages (a bit 'tongue in cheek').

Chip (10/12/16



Shares can stay undervalued as others can stay overvalued. But unless there is a fundamental reason why a stock is seriously undervalued it ought to make sense to buy in preference to a higher valued stock in the same sector.

Hope the above is useful.
Chip

[garycook] 12/12/2016 09:13

srp,Topped up as well at 123.50p

[srpactive] 12/12/2016 09:00

GC bought lower, his yield.

dyor

[11_percent] 10/12/2016 20:20

GARYCOOK
10 Dec '16 - 03:26 - 7900 of 7906    0   0
HGM with a probable 7% Yield,if the next Dividend is 5p,which it should be.We have Mr Roman Chelski on board,so why not WB.Pocket money for Berkshire Hathaway to buy a holding of HGM,with a lovely 7% yield and the Gold price recovering next year.A great investment to me at 7% Yield.IMHO, DYOR.

-----------------

Garry,

The current yield is 3.6%.

How is it going to get to 7%.

[dt1010] 10/12/2016 19:56

It's sour grapes. Trump WILL be President. Get over it Clinton.

[srpactive] 10/12/2016 19:17

Yes Trump, it is the Yanks saying this and that about Russia,
I do not believe there is much truth out there and non in the US.
Even Obama now saying he will investigate Russian involvement in the
US election, why don't the left accept defeat, including our remainers.

[fangorn2] 10/12/2016 16:44

vsrpactive9 Dec '16 - 15:04 - 7885 of 7903 0 0
Were Lance Armstrong, Justin Gatlin and Ben Johnson all Russian?

Few and far between whereas doping & cheating far far more prevalent amongst Russian,and Eastern European athletes.Not so much later these days, but Russkies still streets ahead of everyone in this department..

Indisputably so.

Might want to put the Anti Americanism to one side therefore :)

Now a Potus who is pro talking/being friendly to Russia. Everyone is a winner surely.

[dt1010] 10/12/2016 08:56

Buying into the gold mining industry would run against his investment ethos of predominantly investing in insurance and consumer related businesses.
Tesco is a global food retailer. Mining a metal that he regards as a barbarous relic is the complete antithesis of his investment rationale.
It would also point to a belief that gold was going to increase in value.
Forget Buffett investing in this sevtor. This sector doesn't need Buffett to perform. It just needs an ascending gold price off the back of geopolitical uncertainty. Which we have in abundance.
We have seen a pull back since a trump was elected. But the world is just the same as it was, just as indebted, just as dangerous.
Nothing has changed or will change.
Gold may go lower short term but I sincerely believe 2017 will be good for gold overall. But Buffett? He's a man I hdppen to know a lot about and I would be 99% surprised/shocked if he bought into this sector. He likes moats not commodity businesses. And if you don't know what I mean by that then read the books.

[srpactive] 10/12/2016 08:40

I did not mean here, I meant the gold mining industry,
low costs higher gold price. I know he likes to invest
$5bn stakes. Remember he did buy wrongly into TSCO.

dyor

regards

active

[garycook] 10/12/2016 03:26

HGM with a probable 7% Yield,if the next Dividend is 5p,which it should be.We have Mr Roman Chelski on board,so why not WB.Pocket money for Berkshire Hathaway to buy a holding of HGM,with a lovely 7% yield and the Gold price recovering next year.A great investment to me at 7% Yield.IMHO, DYOR.

[dt1010] 09/12/2016 22:06

If you knew much about WB you'd know he hates gold
He owns companies throwing off billions in retained profit
He then buys more companies
Gold pays nothing in interest so he isn't interested.

[haywards26] 09/12/2016 21:54

Unfortunately WB is very much against gold as an investment...

Not me though I will top up again next week if hgm share price reduces again