||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Real Estate Investment Trusts
Highcroft Share Discussion Threads
Showing 126 to 149 of 150 messages
|Revisited HCFT as part of my Xmas review/wrap up.
Been in since 2011 and am pondering buying a few more.
The positives are as they have always been. Simple strategy focussed on SE commercial with a unit cost above HNW. Moving from retail shops to warehouses. Long lease lengths. Low costs (although these have increased over the last few years) and only a few deals a year. Very efficient in a SIPP.
Valuation does not appear too high. Currently c. 10% discount to June 16 NAV (after taking account of spread, dealing costs etc..). The NAV will probably be c. 5% higher at year end. Also the NAV tends to be conservative with most realisations at 20%+ premiums to NAV (although some of these have been planning driven, which is more difficult on commercial rather than residential sites). The is a yield of c. 5% increasing by more than inflation. Not a bargin, but not expensive either.
Only negatives that I can see are as follows. Unit sizes increasing, which means one or two sites could be a material % of portfolio. New incentive at 10% of distributed amount could drive poor decisions e.g. use of leverage to increase rental income or poorer quality by higher yielding counterparties. 42% Kinglee holding mitigates this. Also, with Kinglee and Conn holdings there will never be material liquidity in the stock (which is fine for long term holders like me). I suspect this is one of the reasons, HCFT gets little media coverage.
Hope everyone is having a good break and best wishes for 2017.
|Another decent deal.|
|Decent yield, good cover, good cash position, as long as there is some discount (To NAV) I am happy to hold, as I have done for many years, and added not so long ago.|
|Very tempting buy for yield.|
|Looks good especially the Wisbech acquisition but the discount to NAV is now quite thin.|
|Ditto for full year.|
|Solid stuff for half year.
Can't be much more rejigging of the portfolio to do so things should creep along steadily.|
|MTIOC - I continue the exchange on the PE thread...
Thanks. Intresting read.
My main issue with PE is subjectivity of valuation. Two surveyors could do a red book valuation
of Highcroft's portfolio and would be a max of 10% apart and very likely within 5%. On the other hand, the difference on a PE portfolio could be 20% - even assuming no bias, valuing multiple unquoted businesses is just very subjective. I am therefore skeptical of some of the valuations and hence the supposed discounts.
I was in LMS and found the tenders tedious to manage. I saw some comments on CDI, while some posters recognised the expro risk, no one mentioned Stork another O&G services business. The portfolio seems to have a 50% exposure to the sector, which may well get worse before it gets better. This highlights the need for the investor to have a view on the underlying portfolio, which is tricky for most PIs.
That said, there were a few interesting companies (eg bpm) that I will look at further. Happy to follow up on PE thread.
|Skyship, Thanks. I will have a look at the both the thread and the articles. PE is relatively close to home.|
|"...but I am struggling to find value anywhere at the moment!"
Agreed, too much of the general equity market is priced to perfection; and now many propcos are already discounting two years asset growth.
As an asset discount player Markets are awkward to say the least. However, there is one very rewarding sector not generally followed by PIs; and where good discounts and prospects are still available - Private Equity.
c35 players to choose from, many shown in the Header of the Private Equity thread (PE) - see below.
Best value seems to be from the liquidating trusts - as they fulfil their objectives the discount obviously closes. See the Comments at the foot of the Citywire article - also below.
|My back of the envelope suggests current market value is c. 17% premium to Dec 14 NAV. The yield is also below 3%.
The strategy over the last 3 or 4 years has been to sell smaller high street units and purchase large retail warehouses. The warehouses serve online and physical retail, so partially mitigate individual high street risk.
The disposals (with central London and Bristol office exceptions) were of small high street units (often held for many years) at c. £1m - probably to HNW individuals (at auction). Between 2011 and 2013 they were getting a c. 35% premium to last BV. In the last couple of years that has reduced to c. 15% (albeit of written up values).
The warehouses are larger £3m to £8.5m. These are out of reach of most individuals, but are probably more efficiently priced. A third of the 2014 NAV was from larger properties purchased in the last few years (i.e. less potential for material valuation uplifts on disposal).
Despite this, I suspect that if the portfolio was realised now, it would probably be at or slightly in excess of the current market value. Overall, probably a bit over valued, but I am struggling to find value anywhere at the moment!|
|Look at the stocks in the Header of the CP+ thread and you'll see HCFT is a stand-out performer this year. Well done all holders.
Problem is that they now trade at a premium to NAV, even the likely NAV as at 30th June.
Propcos at a premium are a hostage to fortune...
|Someone is nibbling.....|
|Simon Gill is the relatively new MD. I don't think he has bought any.|
|Some buying again!
I see JH bought some more last week - hope this is other director(s) acquiring.|
|SV Record day is tomorrow, drop today due to Ex/div|
|Tomorrow I think.|
|Ex dividend today?|
|Semper Vigilans - got in quite early, went out for the day, got back to see a decent rise, not often that happens to me ha ha, everyone buying it seems.|
|Hmmmm - nice upward movement.|
|I note the recently appointed MD hasn't bought any yet!|
|I trust that the new non-exec will have bought a fair few shares prior to the AGM.|
|Good figures. Looking for more acquisitions to the portfolio I would think.|