Hercules Props. Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 22/7/2004 10:38

Fair enough, but the residential property market is only slowing gradually - yesterday the papers were full of mortgage approvals and advances being well up...

And that's only resi. Commercial property is actually improving and has been for a while.

Erinaceous Group, a one-stop property services company, just released a positive AGM statement, and they're trading on a prospective P/E (from memory) 50% higher than HPS.

Finally, HPS recently raised funds from institutions and reduced debt by £2.5m at 275p, so I'd have thought that this level would be a floor for the shares until the pre-results run-up.

[acamas] 22/7/2004 08:52

eburne1960 - good point. Any reaction in housing market will have some knock on effect across the sector. Property is not selling quite so freely as it was earlier in the year

[eburne1960] 21/7/2004 17:45

According to the company website, it's 8th Sept. Price seems to be drifting a bit at the moment (albeit on low volume), wondering if reports in the press about property auctions only selling 75% of their lots may be having an effect....

[acamas] 21/7/2004 13:34

This share has been very quiet for almost a month, no news no price movement. When is the next press(trading statement) annoucement due August or September?

[rivaldo] 24/6/2004 11:42

Yep, and more small buys still trickling in. Broker forecast is 34.82 EPS for the year about to end on 30th June, and 37.92 EPS going forward - a P/E of just 7.4, with a dividend of 9.15p for a divi yield of 3.2%.

I have these in a PEP and intend them to stay there for a nice yield and minimum of 30% share price appreciation over the next few months.

[acamas] 24/6/2004 11:13

This share has been quietly bubbling away over the last four weeks going nowhere. It may now have got its second wind and just perhaps it will reach £4+ on this occasion. The company seems well run presently and in my opinion is due a share price uplift.

[rivaldo] 24/6/2004 09:54

Someone's keen - snapped up £28k's worth of stock first thing. Final results should be early September. Perhaps we'll get a trading statement this year - two years ago there was an update in late May, last year there wasn't one.

I like these shares which are range-bound with sells being easily absorbed - one day there should be a nice breakout.

[rivaldo] 08/6/2004 10:35

Good timing abdul, MM's have widened the spread now. Are they short of stock? Since my last post on 20th May any selling has continued to be mopped up.

[abdulkabooli] 08/6/2004 09:19

SP frozen. No announcements. Company paying a good divi. I wonder if there is an opportunity here?

[rivaldo] 20/5/2004 18:25

257,000 shares traded today, and not a single share bought above the mid-price, yet the price was solid.

There's surely someone out there continuing to hoover up all the loose stock.

[rivaldo] 19/5/2004 16:55

Interesting 100,000 share cross trade today at 284.5p.

This sounds like bad news for smaller insurers, but great news for larger ones such as Cadogan/Deacon and thus HPS - if it happens HPS may pick up new business from smaller companies...


Extract:
"THE Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors yesterday gave warning that new rules forcing property agents who offer insurance services to be regulated by the Financial Services Authority, would cost the property industry an estimated £10 million and could force some small firms out of business.
The property professionals body lambasted the latest example of red tape from Whitehall as "unnecessary, unwieldy and anti-competitive".

From January next year, every surveyor, property managing agent or adviser who is involved with insurance cover, from collecting premiums to filling out claims forms, will need to be supervised by the FSA.

Businesses will be charged at least £1,000 just to apply for FSA authorisation, but will also be burdened by the ongoing costs associated with compliance.

All firms that fall under the new rules will need to send at least ten forms to the FSA every six months.

The RICS said that small businesses would be badly hit by the rules. The added costs could even force some companies out of business, it said."

[rivaldo] 18/5/2004 12:36

Certainly sounds like HPS are looking to extract as much value as they can organically:

- the new company will be top three in the UK
- should be excellent cost savings
- cross-selling opportunities etc

If a demerger does result there could be considerably greater upside than even the currently low P/E would indicate.

[doobydave] 18/5/2004 11:25

I had been wondering for months what sense there was in having two distinct insurance entities and am glad to read this news. Apart from anything else, it should help keep Hercules on the institutional radar, which can't be bad.

David

[simonevans] 18/5/2004 11:00

That's exactly what I was thinking - this would be a good step imo - lets have a pure insurance broker listed on AIM. I have mentioned before on this BB that I think that Hercules would command a slightly better rating as two distinct groups - maybe they are reading this BB. lol!

[tiltonboy] 18/5/2004 09:03

Any thoughts on whether the merger of the insurance operations could lead to a de-merger of the combined entity some time in the future!

tiltonboy

[rivaldo] 14/5/2004 20:47

Yep, it may be that one more set of assured results with no surprises results in a re-rating of 50% or more.

Mind you, HPS did pretty well to place a load of shares recently at 280p, i.e a small discount to the price at the time, so it could be that the City has already forgiven and forgotten.

[penpont] 14/5/2004 15:47

Might hopefully see an upgrade for next year then - getting too near the year end to have much added into current year.

A statement like this, coming at this time, should hopefully preclude any nasties in the form of negative trading news as the 30/6 approaches IMO.

Not that I was expecting any mind you. I'd like to believe that with a decent set of full year results behind it the city might finally forgive HPS its past mistakes and give it a rating of 10 x or so. Should make the 400p level attainable within a one year view.

[rivaldo] 14/5/2004 08:34

Impossible IMO penpont - presumably this contract was at best in early negotiations when the last forecast was issued. No responsible analyst would include earnings that weren't certain.

This makes HPS even better value IMHO.

[penpont] 14/5/2004 08:03

Wonder if the Trafford Park contract was factored into current estimates?

[rivaldo] 14/5/2004 07:54

Excellent news today - HPS is looking better and better:



"Hercules, the property insurance, management and services company, announces
today that, through its subsidiary Dunlop Heywood Lorenz ('DHL'), it has been
appointed as joint letting agents to Brixton's £100 million industrial portfolio in Trafford Park, Manchester and that its contract to manage Wandsworth Borough Council's property portfolio has been renewed.

Trafford Park Industrial Estate
DHL has been appointed by Brixton plc as joint letting agent to the £100 million industrial portfolio in Trafford Park which it recently purchased.

The Trafford Park portfolio covers 127 acres and incorporates 2.7 million square feet of property within Europe's second largest industrial estate. The
appointment reinforces Dunlop Heywood Lorenz's influence in the North West
industrial agency market.

Wandsworth Borough Council
Wandsworth Council renewed DHL as managers to its property portfolio for a new
five year contact starting on 1st October 04. Under the terms of the contract
DHL will be responsible for the professional day-to-day management of the
Council's 400 unit investment portfolio, which generates a rent roll of £4
million per annum, as well as the valuation, disposal and rating of its entire
investment and service portfolio of 700 properties.

Rob Plumb, Managing Director of Hercules, commented:
'These two important contract wins are a credit to our Dunlop Haywood Lorenz
subsidiary and demonstrate Hercules's commitment to delivering continued growth
across all of its divisions.'"

[rivaldo] 13/5/2004 21:49

Still seeing steady demand for this stock, and edging back up towards the year high now.

A while till results, but it'll be interesting to see if the directors or the AESOP wade in as they did last year before the finals.

Worth noting that the current year P/E is still only 8.2, reducing to 7.5 next year.

[rivaldo] 10/5/2004 15:23

Mmmm....with mushy peas on top - I've started dribbling (in more ways than one)....

No point in posting on the shares going down today as it's just a general markdown - more interesting to look at those that aren't down. Despite more small selling HPS is holding nicely. I still reckon there are buyers out there mopping up loose stock, as there have been for ages.

That's probably the kiss of death!

[mathisvale] 29/4/2004 14:24

rivaldo

I hear that you are on the verge of signing for Bolton Wanderers. You have to like chip butties to go there. LOL !!

[rivaldo] 29/4/2004 09:09

5,000 shares bought and up we go again....

[penpont] 26/4/2004 23:58

rivaldo: from other threads I think possibly the Fleet St Letter and maybe Momentum Investor (from the SCSW stable) were out at the weekend.

Think I recall someone saying that FSL said to take some profits on HPS at around the 200p mark so maybe they've issued same advice again.

As you say it matters little longer term.