Hephaestus Share Discussion Threads

[buffin] 03/1/2007 20:43

I didn't put it very well. Yes 17p + 1.5p cashback = 18.5p per HEP share.

[fredling] 03/1/2007 20:27

Buffin,

I make it 17p (assuming exchnage rate correct)


EPG Price AUD 0.765

Exchange rate 2.47

Sterling equivalent 30.97p

*.55 (no of EPG shares per Heritage share) = 17p

Fredling



I intend to hold.


PS I hadn't realised that the Lons Le Saunier application covers CBM, tight gas and.... conventional oil (page 12 of offer document).

[buffin] 03/1/2007 16:32

As there's a mark down, I suppose someone's selling, which feels odd - wasn't last night's bid price on EPG worth roughly 18.5p?

[buffin] 02/1/2007 08:05

In what sense was he first hole a "disaster"?

They said the results were better than they expected and the HEP directors indicated there could well upgrades of the estimates of gas in place.

And surely it would be Alan who chose the spot anyway?

[lmhardy01] 02/1/2007 02:56

hi guys perhaps we should ask Tony McClure why we have no info on the current drilling at Folschviller, my info is after a visit is that they drilled in the wrong place and are stuck at 950 meters and are currently loosing drilling mud in a ridiculous manner. Ie perhaps they are filling up an old mineshaft with mud!.

I have real doubts in the management competency of European Gas as both holes have so far been a disaster. Perhaps Tony is looking to trigger his golden parachute and needs to show that he is incompetent. Especially now this is some 2 million AUD. We need action and success now as otherwise we will loose out and be overtaken by the likes of Po Valley and others .

PS however the project is so good anyway his incompetence will only delay the project, so that is at least good news. The need to get the American company that was mentioned in the one of the briefings in their ASAP who is a specialist in this area.

[rapier686] 02/1/2007 00:16

That would be Valempoulières.

This summary of French basins isn't that complementary about the Jura.

"In spite of the large number of wells realized, since the discovery of the tiny and now abandoned gas fields in the Jura (Valempoulières, Lons-le-Saulnier, Vaux-en-Bugey) which were producing in Triassic, no commercial accumulation has ever been found"

It holds out some hope
"For most of the wells drilled before 1980, it is thought that their targets were badly defined because the seismic was often unable at that time to resolve the complexity of the structural traps."

Whatever, it might come up trumps. But if we're to take serious account of it in the EPG offer, we need to be told, which currently doesn't go much beyond "Seams are up to 6 metres in thickness with net coals of up to 15 metres from 950 metres in depth". Compare and contrast net coal intercept at Folchvillier.

It isn't being presented to us as conventially prospective with modern reprocessed seismic. Presence of reservoir rock is in severe doubt. It's being presented to us as CBM, just possibly tight gas outside the coal.

[sranmal] 01/1/2007 20:46

Rapier,

re. Lons-le-Saunier:

....we're an awful lot further from seeing if it's feasible to get gas out than we are in Lorraine.

What about EPG's 11 May '06 OilBarrel Conference presentation which stated an explo well on the permit had flowed 3.5 mmcfpd (~600 boepd)?

[rapier686] 01/1/2007 17:07

Pretty much any case for EPG to be a strong performer would also be a case for an unmerged HEP to be a strong performer.

Arguments to support the merger have to either
a) Appeal to HEP being in a very significantly worse position than EPG to raise the required funds. It is in a worse position, but I don't see the issue's worth a huge discount.
b) Argue that the residual Canning basin royalties are valuable - hard to do when there ain't much production and the odd duster gets drilled.
c) Argue that Lons-le-Saunier is very valuable.

I'm most amenable to the latter - but the licence isn't fully granted yet and even if it was we're an awful lot further from seeing if it's feasible to get gas out than we are in Lorraine. And we do know there's less net coal and what there is is deeper, so the economics are less likely to be favourable.

[buffin] 01/1/2007 10:21

Interesting thread started by Poyndexter on hot copper



We know the takeover terms are harsh, but that post sets out a good case for European Gas to be a very strong performer.

Maybe it will help doubters in making up their minds.

[buffin] 22/12/2006 12:06

No rush to accept, though I can't see anyone coming out of the woodwork. But I think EPG is a superb investment.

Wait till 2007.

[jonno1] 22/12/2006 09:37

just got my voting e-mail from TWD, what are others doing here, declining or accepting, I presume its gonna go through anyway, although the offer is not up to much, your views please.

[lord gnome] 20/12/2006 18:18

Well I'm out now. Sold out today. My holding was just 'beer money' and it wasn't worth holding on to if the shares weren't going to be UK listed. I can't grumble. I got 16.2 when I paid just 7p. Have fun you guys, hope you make loads of dosh.

[buffin] 20/12/2006 10:33

They've now corrected the Lorraine Sud mention (albeit clumsily), and it seems just plain wrong to say that "Shares are fizzing in Aussie-listed European Gas Limited". They're flat.

[buffin] 20/12/2006 08:32

There's an update on oilbarrel today -



I don't think it tells us anything new except that they've missed the awarding of Lorraine Sud -



- though it does say of Lorraine that "Anything like this in the heart of Europe is likely to prove something of a goldmine". And we thought it was all about gas.

[haydock] 19/12/2006 21:57

Buffin
Transfered some of your notes to APF board, re APF holding, in EPG.
Many thanks.

[buffin] 15/12/2006 19:37

And once we're in EPG we're less likely to be diluted out of sight. I am definitely staying in (I already have shares in both). To me this looks greatly undervalued in relation to its likely resources, with reserve upgrade and production not very far off.

[rapier686] 15/12/2006 18:15

Why would you want to leave?

Presuming you would have been staying in HEP in the absence of a takeover, then EPG is pretty much the same package of assets and EPG was operator anyway.

Might be a pain dealing on ASX or Euronext when the time comes - but on both your order goes into an orderbook. There may be forex conversion charges to extract sterling but that's more than compensated for no ginormous MM spread.

The only issue I can see is that if you've held HEP for > 1 year then I would expect to claim business asset taper relief on HEP but no-way on EPG.

My personal view is, we've enjoyed a recent +50% since the summer but there's still loads more to play for. A good bet for a further +50% or more in '07 as
a) Lorraine GIIP is upgraded due to finding more coal than expected.
b) Lorraine Sud's extensions of the exploited structures come into play - further boosting GIIP.
c) Lorraine goes into pilot production.
d) Lons le Saunier (we'll probably be EPG by then) is granted and the extent of resource begins to get scouted out.

[lord gnome] 15/12/2006 18:00

Now then, do we take the cash and leave by the exit, or do we stick around and see how EPG perform? Any views? I am tempted to take my profit and move on.

[buffin] 15/12/2006 08:55

Absolutely. You know it's not good value when it's buried down the release and quotes old numbers!

I agree, no point in rushing to accept. I see Anglo have accepted.

[rapier686] 15/12/2006 08:35

The irrevocable undertakings are, unless the Offer lapses, binding, even if a higher competing offer is announced by a third party.

Wow!

Well it looks something of a done deal if they've tied up 68.5% even though they offer is conditional on 90%. But still, I'm certainly not in a hurry to accept myself. Hang back a while and think about it.

Huge cheek describing it as The Offer values the fully diluted ordinary share capital of Heritage at approximately GBP10.9 million and represents a premium of 15.8 per cent. to the Heritage share price

since it's an almost all share and EPG is now off 10%.

[buffin] 15/12/2006 07:21

Formal offer announcement out today -



I still think HEP shareholders have been shafted, but the future's bright, the future's gassy.

[rapier686] 11/12/2006 10:17

This is a neighbour to HEP's Tuscan projects.

Incidentally, it shows EPG aren't the only ones to overrun drilling timetables.

Spudded on 25 September, "Drilling is expected to take around two weeks". 11 Dec is 11 weeks later!

There also appears to be some serious backpedalling going on.

"which means the generation of coal bed methane at this location would probably be less productive than might be achieved elsewhere".

Sounds like initial gas content indications are disappointing.

"The licence covers an area of 267 km(2) and has very light work commitments".

So it's easy come, easy go.

"The new well is an important step in the staged appraisal of the licence which
only commits IRG to undertake subsequent phases once it is satisfied with the
results of the previous stage."

Very easy go in fact!

[buffin] 11/12/2006 09:55

Independent Resources has reported drilling Italy's first CBM prospect.

[sranmal] 08/12/2006 05:41

Lorraine Sud granted, HEP have 25%, hasn't done much for the EPG SP:



edit - beat me to it buffin!

[buffin] 08/12/2006 05:39

Lorraine Sud permit granted (as expected, but still good to see). EPG dips!