Hephaestus Share Discussion Threads

[rapier686] 01/11/2006 09:16

lmhardy,

I don't have a verdict. I hold both HEP & EPG (primarily HEP) because I'm satisfied the rewards for success are multiples of the current market cap and the prospects for success are reasonable.

On the assumption I'm correct, the expected market price should increase. Experience has taught me though that I've little insight into quite how, when and triggered by what this comes about.

I can't see reserves being established though till after successful pilot production taking perhaps 6-12 months building up production whilst dewatering and then showing a stabilised flow. And I believe they need to raise funds (see AIM listing) for that pilot production.

[egoi] 01/11/2006 09:11

Sorry isn't this webcast months old (June!) and therefore there is absolutely nothing new, or am i listening to the wrong one? EPG price spiked and the bid which I guess was prepared months ago and waiting for just such a spike means HEP holders are getting less than they deserve, isn't that still the case, particularly if you think EPG will receive a higher valuation when it comes to AIM?

I remain to be convinced I won't be able to pick up EPG shares around this price when (as eventually presumably they will) they arrive on AIM post merger and I would be astounded if they came to AIM without a funding frankly. (I also suspect they won't list till after the merger is complete so as in part to draw least attention to themselves, incase of a counter bid, and they will hope to keep newsflow positive meantime).

Also i now gather Anglo is a holder of EPG, making a counter bid less likely in my view. Long term this is still a dead cert winner in my view, but short term murky at best.

[jonno1] 01/11/2006 09:11

haven't been following this of late, just had a look, should I be buying more HEP then, or should I be buyng EPG? , or selling my HEP and buying EPG, whats the best thing to do here now?
your comments much appreciated

[lmhardy01] 01/11/2006 09:06

well rapier what is your guess projection on the potential share price for EPG once the 2P & 3P reserves have been published by EPG ? Qld Gas had 340 BCF 2P valued at 312 Mill Aud at the time of the report and that is at 1/4 of the gas price compared to the av 9Euro per 1000 CUFt in europe.
Since the EPG vidio they has been a signifcant upgrading of qld gas.

[rapier686] 01/11/2006 08:56

20-20 Energy day was on 27th June. Buffin heard it in the flesh and the webcast's been up for some time.

Only the western portion of the licence (inc St Avold) has been peppered with coal exploration holes, the eastern portion has only had a few explo holes drilled by the likes of Enron. That's St Avold's set to be 2P but the coal distribution's far more uncertain out Diebling way and anything there is 3P.

[lmhardy01] 01/11/2006 08:53

Not as far as I am aware in regards to change in stategy, the merger with Heritage is predicated on the basis that EPG lists on AIM as a combined entity. Otherwise Heritage would list separtely on AIM. I agree the video and presenation says that St Avoid is P2 & Aistling is P3 however this in its self does not make sense since the Aistling drilling and analasys is the same as St Avoid. This is a wait and see I think
Also Ambrian are being paid Mega $$ to advise the same to list on Aim but the results need to be in the can before they can revalue the shares.

[sranmal] 01/11/2006 08:32

The webcast (although this strategy may have since changed) suggested that only St Avold would be reclassified as P2 (~200 bcf), and they wouldn't have to raise new money when they went to AIM, this was only being done to allow European investors to buy shares more easily.

[lmhardy01] 01/11/2006 08:17

The drilling company is OK that has been known for a while.
As to the delay to listing on AIM this I would think has been caused by the delay in drilling results by the incompetent french co. They need the drilling results from (to Come) Aistling so that they can declare 2P & 3P reserve statements for all Loraine including an upgrade of resources

They can then justify a share price of 2.50 so they can raise new funds on AIM at a pound ea per share. Basically we are sitting on some serious $$$ increace in the near future.

[lord gnome] 01/11/2006 08:01

So then, if we stay on board with HEP and accept the takeover offer, we could double our money when EPG lists on Aim? Nice find sranmal and thanks to Sir Lurkalot the Fool.

[sranmal] 01/11/2006 07:57

That link was thanks to SirLurkalot on Motley Fool, who posted it last night on the O&G Board in response to another post highlighting a load of O&G webcasts.

I did listen to the whole thing and made notes but they're at home. The valuation discrepancy when (if) we convert resources to reserves was apparent, they did plan to list on AIM in Oct but current market has presumably delayed that, they are looking at further acquisition in German Ruhr area, they have US CBM experts on board, water disposal is the biggest problem in CBM but not so in our first test drill.

[lmhardy01] 01/11/2006 01:13

Thanks for that when did you come across this?
Makes some interesting points especially regarding the 2P reserves and the listing on AIM and the Resource upgrade. All this is is obviously to come SOON I hope. Current Comparison to Queensland Gas would place a valuation based on 2P reserves of about 5-6 times the current share price!.

[sranmal] 31/10/2006 23:41

EPG webcast:

[mr ashley james] 24/10/2006 05:28

Yeah Hah!

Another ASX Stock going guns

RIP AIM

[lmhardy01] 24/10/2006 04:03

For those of us who are interested in the technical aspects of Coal Methane production and specifically .

"THE IMPACT OF RELATIVE PERMEABILITY ON TYPE CURVES FOR COALBED METHANE RESERVOIRS"

I can only assume that EPG are rationing their output of information due to the slowness of their current drilling operation.

[buffin] 23/10/2006 04:31

EPG has the initial permeability results out at .

At A$0.7275 we are still off the high (for the moment) EPG price at which they fixed the "rate of exchange" for HEP offer (A$0.80), so HEP holders don't get to share any upside from this update. Will the announcement encourage Anglo Pacific to pursue HEP, and if so how?

[lmhardy01] 17/10/2006 20:11

Interesting it looks as if Price had been waiting for the 1 year mark to go by before he sold his shares. Now he can claim this as a Capital gain and claim taper relief.

[buffin] 17/10/2006 12:38

A small increase of 175,000 shares has taken Anglo Pacific to 4%. Presumably they've been picking up shares from Richard Price.

Where are they going to go to get substantially more? - and what's their strategy?

[lmhardy01] 17/10/2006 02:34

Ok I have had a quick look at Anglo it looks as if they are passive investors or looking to back in a coal asset to gain a royalty in the future.

We know from the substantial share notices etc where 70% of the stock resides which includes the 24% held by directors + Golden Prospect. So In reality unless someone like Anglo has a plan then the takover by EPG is a done deal. The shares sold the other day ie 840K were possibly bought by Anglo. maybe Anglo they are a shareholder in EPG, however they are not shown as a sub shareholder or in the top 20.

I hope that they will agitate EPG for a better deal ! Does anyone know any of the directors at Anglo to ask what the plan IS if their is one.

[rapier686] 16/10/2006 23:03

Sorry, don't know. Need the company memoranda & articles which I'm annoyed to see do not appear to be available online from Companies House. They should be filed there though and available, so probably the best way to progress finding out is to give Companies House a ring tomorrow and ask. Heritage are company no 04083129.

Of course any EGM might be in Monaco!

[lmhardy01] 16/10/2006 22:03

what are the rules for requistioning a meeting is it 5% of the shares? does anyone know what rules apply?

[fredling] 16/10/2006 20:56

I wonder if APF are acting as a stalking horse for another bid.

Rationale:- take a 3% holding suggest that you are about to bid flush out the real bidder and take a profit be selling to the highest offer.

Th involement of APF and GOL confirms what we all know...HEP has a quality CBM asset.

Fredling

[piedro] 16/10/2006 17:16

Have a look at their coal projects in British Columbia and their interest in West Hawk Development Corp (TSX:WHD).

IMHO, they , APF, are only interested in the technology..... if there is any.

[drago] 16/10/2006 14:52

very interesting egoi
presumably anglo pacific would be looking for a return meaningful to a company their size.

[egoi] 16/10/2006 14:46

Mhmmm.

This is intriguing, given the timing - a new 3%+ holder - hard not to draw the obvious conclusion that someone is showing an interest in a counter bid perhaps? And this is not a predator to be underrated, clearly has clout, for example they gain royalties from these mines run by a couple of very large names:

The mines involved are:-

* The Kestrel mine operated by Rio Tinto
The most recent estimate of the reserves of product over which the royalty is applicable is circa 57 million tons.
* The Crinum mine operated by BHP Billiton
The most recent estimate of the reserves of product over which the royalty is applicable is circa 17 million tons.

Anglo Pacific Group Plc Interest in HEP.

Total shares owned or controlled 1,975,000

Percentage of current issued voting share capital 3.7%

Date of notification 16 October 2006

[rapier686] 14/10/2006 15:40

See what you mean, though their pre-drill schedule wasn't as fast as 2 weeks a well.
At spud we were told the two well program was planned for 10-12 weeks. So I agree 9 weeks for the first one does seem slow, espcially as they then plan to take two weeks moving the rig. And spud was 2 weeks later than originally planned. Fortunately it's a turnkey contract!

I'm not sure that we know Cofor are planned to do the pilot wells though do we?
Wan't this a tendered turnkey contract for a couple of cored stratigraphic wells, and if they have messed up then their chances of landing the next job must be slim.