||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
I am following this. I have not invested as yet. Share price has been here before.
There is no doubt that if the market turns potential for a decent gain is good.
Do you know anything about shipping.|
|hugepants: Fleet deployment update RNS. Rates better than expected given share price up 10%?
|stemis: Marginally ebitda positive and net debt down. No sign of financial distress.
tNAV is now 185p a share compared to share price of 20p.|
|hugepants: Yes I'm holding. I think the last stated NAV has to be a work of fiction given the current share price. I did some quick calcs based on writing down the value of the boats (including the final cost of those under construction) by 30% and I get net tangible asset value of approx 3 times current share price. Say 50p-60p. But who knows. There are a lot of variables here. I also don't much like the 70% shareholding of a few shareholders.|
|stemis: Sale of M/V Hellenic Sky for $10.1m gross
The vessel was initially acquired in July 2003 for a total consideration of US$13.2 million. During the past nine years of its operation, the vessel has contributed approximately US$19.4 million to the Company's net profit. Taking into account the net book value of the vessel and the sale related expenses, the Company expects to realize a net book gain of approximately US$2.5 million on this sale.
Seems like a good deal, cutting proforma net debt to around $30.0m and increasing proforma gross cash to around $58.0m. It also provides some support for the valuation of vessels in the balance sheet with the sale price in excess of written down NBV. Tangible net asset value is now around 132p compared to a share price of 39p (up 1p on the news).|
|stemis: The share price seems to be drifting upwards. I thought it went ex div today? If the current price is ex the 2.15p div then the rise is even better.|
I guess that's true in HCL's mind. Take a lower rate fixed for a year rather than rely on short term rates. It presumably also eliminates handover voids (whatever the technical expression is) between charters. The rate is a little disappointing but at least better than it was currently on.
Shareholder returns are going to have to come from a re-rating of the shares. Although HCL pays a dividend of 2.47p, which is a yield of 3.7% and which should grow, I don't see a big increase or cash return imminently. I think what is keeping the share price down is the level of debt, concerns over future profits and the large shareholding of the Karamanlis's. The level of debt is falling rapidly and by the end of 2011 will (in the absence of any corporate activity or new vessels) be down to c.$20m. I also think the forecast collapse in profits is overdone.
I do expect some corporate activity - an acquisition or purchase of new vessels - but I've expected that for a while without anything happening! The Karamanlis's have so much invested in HCL that I expect them to take a prudent approach.|
|stemis: Baltic index seems to be recovering somewhat, unlike the share price here!|
|tiredoldbroker: Tadtech, I've followed and written about HCL for a number of years now, and I do hope that they are moving into a more successful period. I just have my doubts that the share price is sustainable, given the £35m of debt they are carrying and the 151m shares already in issue.
I don't think an asset revaluation would produce any news; Cains revalued its assets very recently on an aggressive basis, prior to which it actually had a deficit on shareholders' funds, and Honeycombe revalued its entire estate within the last 12 months as well. So I don't think there is any hidden pile of assets to be revealed, and on that basis the share price is now almost 4 times the underlying asset value.
I also doubt that there is a predator in the wings, waiting to swoop. Honeycombe was effectively up for sale and couldn't find a buyer and the enlarged business is controlled by the Dusanj brothers, with over 57% of the shares. I'd think that if they'd simply wanted to sell Cains, they'd have done so without wasting time and professional fees on reversing it into HCL first.
As to what HCL's 100 pubs might be worth to a major chain, the problem is that many of them are underinvested and not actually very attractive, and I repeat, the whole HCL estate was up for sale with Rothschilds looking for a buyer, and nobody wanted to do a deal. This is the greatest weakness as far as I'm concerned - HCL needed a deal with a cash-rich buyer who could invest in their pubs and make them more attractive to drinkers, but they haven't managed that - they still have high debt, low profits last year, and everything to prove.|
|trader_clive: Is it just investors day trading keep pushing the share price up here,
or is it really going up on fundamentals,
or is the price now getting too top heavy?
Haven't looked at the accounts myself.|
Hellenic Carr. share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange