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HEAD Headlam Group Plc

172.50
-1.00 (-0.58%)
18 Apr 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Headlam Group Plc LSE:HEAD London Ordinary Share GB0004170089 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.00 -0.58% 172.50 61,731 16:35:25
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
171.00 173.00 173.00 173.00 173.00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Floor Covering Stores 656.5M 6.5M 0.0805 21.49 139.75M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:35:25 UT 848 172.50 GBX

Headlam (HEAD) Latest News

Headlam (HEAD) Discussions and Chat

Headlam Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
18/3/202419:00Headlam629
05/11/200720:40Important FOOTBALL question3
05/9/200618:18Meteoric rise on the cards?108
01/11/200511:54klhlk-
20/12/200216:18Headlam - Sinks on heavy discounted Institutional sale1

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Headlam (HEAD) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2024-04-18 15:35:25172.508481,462.80UT
2024-04-18 15:29:53172.486311,088.35O
2024-04-18 15:28:54173.004476.12AT
2024-04-18 15:01:46173.003560.55O
2024-04-18 13:45:32171.005,8009,918.00O

Headlam (HEAD) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 18/4/2024 09:20 by Headlam Daily Update
Headlam Group Plc is listed in the Floor Covering Stores sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker HEAD. The last closing price for Headlam was 173.50p.
Headlam currently has 80,778,867 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Headlam is £139,747,440.
Headlam has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 21.49.
This morning HEAD shares opened at 173p
Posted at 08/3/2024 13:02 by eigthwonder
HEAD is running up the down escalator for sure. The independent carpet guys loved Headlam back in the day because they used to get two or three competing rep visits from the company per week, sometimes per day, and the delivery network was speedy but riddled with duplication. All as a result of acquisitions not being integrated. I wonder if Brewer has learned his lesson given the cast of thousands he name checks in the LIKE report. Only time will tell.
Posted at 08/3/2024 10:17 by donald mcdonald
It’s incredible that eighthwonder condiders Headlam “was left in a mess by Brewer”.

Tony Brewer was fired by Headlam on or around 14th September 2016. The share price was £4.47. The profit reported in 2016 was £40.1 million and the dividend was 22.55 pence per share.

The mess began the day Tony Brewer was fired because there was no one left on the Board who had any knowledge or experience of the complexities of distributing floorcoverings. What is more, in the intervening period, no one with any knowledge or experience of floorcoverings has been added to the Headlam Board.

In the past, 100’s of independent retailers and flooring contractors purchased shares in Headlam. They considered the annual dividend as a form of loyalty rebate. Smaller shareholders did not really follow the share price as the generous dividend was of paramount importance. Several independent retailers and contractors used to attend the Headlam AGM just to get a chance to meet up and shake hands with Graham Waldron and Tony Brewer. Investing in Headlam for them was also invseting in their own future. Before Graham Waldron and Tony Brewer revolutionised the wholesale floorcovering market, an independent retailer might have to wait 7 to 10 days for a cut length of carpet to be delivered to them. Graham & Tony introduced “everywhere, everday” deliveries. The independent retailers loved this because in effect Headlam’s £100 million of inventory was available to them on a next day basis. Carpetright could no longer compete on service with the indepependent retailers.

Headlam have gone all in with their decision to abdicate their core business of independent retailers and flooring contractors in favcour of large customers (Tapi, SCS, et al) and so far 2,000 carpet fitters & floor layers. It is a policy that they will be unable to reverse if they find out in the future that this business plan is flawed. Headlam may be right, but it going to take 2 to 3 years to find out because their business plan for Trade Counters is basically ‘build it and they will come’.

With Headlam currently hemorrhaging so much market share in their core business to Likewise and the many independents, each trade counter needs to get to a break even turnover of £1.2 million in double quick time. Then there is the difficulty of getting to an earning enhancing turnover of £2 million. And that has to happen at every site. If one trade counter gets stuck at £600,000K, another needs to contribute over £3 million to make uo the shortfall.

It is hard to get people from within the industry to go on the record, but privately very few believe that Headlam will achieve its objectives. Trade magazines are reticent to publish Headlam’s bad news stories for fear of losing advertising revenue. Not that Headlam does much marketing nowadays. Manufacturer’s and Suppliers are keeping their heads down in public and waiting to see what develops.

And then what happens if one of their so-called larger customers fails or decides to procure from a different source. It has happended before and lead to Headlam issuing a profit warning to shareholders.

The next 2 years should determine the outcome.
Posted at 07/3/2024 22:39 by eigthwonder
as noted i won't defend today's HEAD, but my sources would point to a flat lining of the business before Brewer left leaving behind a very bloated and complex asset and management structure which made it totally unprepared for a changing market. the other thing which went wrong was the stupidly overpriced acquisition made by his successor trying to put his stamp on the business - the successor who was also the FD in Brewer's time and who should never have got the top job. it's been a wounded animal for years.
Posted at 07/3/2024 18:52 by bda3490
To be fair to Mr Brewer he left with share price over £ 5 . No debt and earnings per share over 40p

Not a mess !
Posted at 06/3/2024 17:42 by eigthwonder
I'll spend little time defending HEAD - they're suffering in that way which is unique to a the leading player in a moribund market - but we do have to be careful with LIKE's numbers as they do include acquisitions and so a LFL might be somewhat less impressive.

HEAD was left in a mess by Brewer so I am wary of the chances of long term success at LIKE.
Posted at 06/3/2024 08:57 by tomps2
Headlam Group (HEAD) Full Year results presentation - March 24

Headlam Group Chief Executive Chris Payne, and Chief Financial Officer, Adam Phillips present full year results for the year ended 31 December 2023, followed by Q&A.

Watch the video here:

Or listen to the podcast here:
Posted at 05/3/2024 09:29 by pireric
I think if you benchmark back to the financial crisis, you can see it's possible to reign in the cost base much better than they have, through weaker revenue periods.

More importantly, I wouldn't have been running to aggressively on cash consumption over the last 24 months. I'd have run the business more conservatively around cash, frankly. I suspect there is an increasingly real question to be asked about competition now; I was more sanguine on this, but they've called it out today: "Competition has also been heightened in this part of the market, with aggressive pricing at times; despite this, our gross margins have been stable and well-controlled."

I speak as a former shareholder here, so I don't have a dislike of the business, just of how the current management team is running it. Mostly on the financial communication side.

There is a total disrespect for retail investors/shareholders; filtering profit warnings through broker backchannels (I would argue treading a very fine line towards giving brokers price-sensitive information to disseminate), leaving retail investors in the lurch who rarely have access to Panmure Gordon or Peel Hunt research.

All of that to me screams poor corporate governance, which unfortunately would argue for a big valuation discount / or that some private equity player should just come and acquire Headlam given the discount to TNAV. In my eyes, the above reflects poorly on Keith Edelman, Chris Payne, and Adam Phillips.

Eric
Posted at 27/2/2024 09:14 by tomps2
Headlam Group (HEAD) FY23 results webinar

Tuesday, 5 March, 11:00am

Headlam Group Chief Executive, Chris Payne and Chief Financial Officer, Adam Phillips will host an online investor presentation and Q&A covering their full year results for the period ended 31 December 2023.

To attend, register here: bit.ly/HEAD_FY23_results_webinar
Posted at 02/11/2023 10:25 by pireric
I think I can be more simple here... we are in a downturn in demand, profits are compressed. The valuation is significantly below book value.

I'm not asking them to go and unlock the property portfolio. The point is that you don't see this sort of valuation generally sustain for a long period of time in equity markets. Headlam itself hasn't seen this sort of valuation discount to NTAV persist for a long time. Similarly, the multiple now versus cyclical high or just cyclical 'normal' profitability is very low. Anecdotally, REITs vs. NAV seem to have a very different dynamic to operating companies vs. NAV, though don't ask me why!

We can get in tangles about justifying short term share price movements. I'm more interested in where the stock will be in 2 years time on a cycle recovery/upswing. I could well be wrong, but when the demand environment is going in the right direction, it's going to be incredibly easy for new investors to come in and argue that the stock is materially undervalued. And probably when earnings can justify alone materially higher share prices.


Eric
Posted at 18/10/2023 20:00 by pireric
Hi Cisk,

Beyond simply doing map analysis (which I did part of), it's hard to know on a case by case basis. But ultimately, I don't think anyone is really suggesting that they go around and sell off the freehold assets in bulk and wind down the business. Moreso that historically, it's pretty rare to find non-financials companies that have been consistently profitable trading below tangible book. Let alone a huge discount.

A lot of construction markets are indirect (have distributors) and remain that way without much shift. Whether that's bricks or other material components. The manufacturers don't want to maintain the long tail of supply chain connections, or become their own distribution or logistics plays. Sure, if Headlam gets disintermediated it's a risk, but I don't attribute much chance of that happening... certainly not above what HEAD are trying to do around their own trade counter/large customer initiatives.

I agree lack of positive near term catalysts. Has the cycle bottomed? Maybe not...

BUT in these deep cycles, share prices tend to bottom before earnings bottom. In the GFC, the share price rallied 40% off the lows, while EPS forecasts went off for another 15% cuts until they reached their lows. And even during the GFC, Headlam's trough P/B multiple was significantly above where it is today.

As soon as investors stop thinking about absolute valuation and more thinking it's too early to buy, rough rule of thumb for me is that is quite often a decent place to step in.

Eric
Headlam share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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