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Real-Time news about Hbos (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|rkjones: Surely, there is a ceiling to which they can rally, this determined by Lloyds share price. The stakes are changing slowly. Until recently HBOS buys (assuming the deal goes through!) have been a cheap way into Lloyds. Will the HBOS share price now drive Lloyds higher. By my standards, have got a significant investment in HBOS averaging at about a £1 - am quietly confident in the medium term as D-day approaches!!|
|dexdringle: Given that it is a 'done deal', and that I will be getting 7,260 Lloyds Banking Group shares for my 12,000 HBoS, is there any reason why I should be interested in the HBoS share price still ? Especially given that, having bought HBoS for £4 each, I will need £6.60 on Lloyds to break even so I'm stuck in this for the (very) long haul and an not "trading" day to day ?
I still don't understand why HBoS is not trading at 0.605 x Lloyds but then I must be missing something. Both sets of owners have voted resoundingly "yes" so that's that. There will be no going back. Why would there be ?|
|zulu001: Increasing numbers of Mr Salmond's supporters do not want the merger and a motion at the SNP conference called for the recapitalisation package to be available to HBOS as a separate entity and not contingent on a merger.
Scottish Executive advisers are puzzled by the fact that a letter to Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, from John Swinney, the Finance Minister, asking for clarification on that very question has still not been answered. A number of high-profile SNP supporters, led by Sir Tom Farmer, have signed an open letter calling for HBOS to stay independent and while MSP Alex Neil's vocal "Save HBOS" campaign is being run from the Nat backbenches, there is little doubt that he has widespread ministerial support.
The upshot is that many senior members of the SNP administration believe, with the HBOS share price now well below the merger offer price, that the wind may soon be blowing in the direction of leaving HBOS independent.|
|dexdringle: HBoS share price is being dictated now not by fundamentals but purely by :
1. what folks think the LLOY multiple will be if not 0.605
2. the fear of the deal collapsing
There is only one fixed number here and that is £1.13. The price HMG has declared that it will pay for new HBos shares. This is 0.73 of a LLOY share. So LLOY can exchange 0.605 of a share for £1.13 cash for the MAJORITY of HBoS shares. This is a PREMIUM in LLOY's favour.
LLOY need a deal. This is what they have been waiting for. Which is why they have been dull for years.
LLOY would be stupid to meddle with this deal. They are getting £30bn, including £8.5bn new cash, and massive waived through market share, for £10bn. They will be looking at the long game. If they start to meddle then the HMG buy in to HBoS would have to change as would the relative share numbers etc etc.
The HBoS share price could be anticipating a fall in LLOY price to £1 of course thus restoring 0.605.........|
|gotnorolex: 1:58pm UK, Friday October 24, 2008
Lloyds TSB says it hopes to complete its takeover of Halifax Bank of Scotland by January next year.
Shareholders will be able to vote on the proposed deal in November.
Last week Lloyds announced it had revised the terms of the transaction.
Investors were concern that HBOS shares had plummeted since two sides shook hands on deal.
They will now get 0.605 Lloyds shares for every HBOS share they hold - they were originally due to get 0.833 Lloyds shares.
News if the revised terms came after the banks were forced to deny reports the merger had fallen through.
Lloyds had initially agreed to pay £9.8bn for its rival but there were fears the sum was too high because of a dive in the HBOS share price.
The new 'superbank' will get an injection of capital from the Government, which is to invest up to £37bn in ailing British banks.
Some 41% of the new bank - which may be called LLoyds HBOS - will be owned by the Government, which will appoint two board members.
HBOS chief executive Andy Hornby and chairman Dennis Stevenson will leave once the deal goes through.|
|dexdringle: Eric Daniels does not care about the HBoS share price. The majority of shares he's buying will be the HMG ones which are worth £1.13 each "cash" (ie more than 0.605 x LLOY).
He's bothered only about the assets, cash and market share that he's getting.
HBoS isn't worth 72p a share. It isn't worth £10 a share either from last year. These are just where the market takes the price day to day.
As has been said, Eric has clearly stated that the adjustment from 0.83 to 0.605 was due to the new maths involved when HMG bail out was announced and as HBoS were raising more discounted cash than LLOY that had to be factored in. He's only interested in the real figures and not the day to day movements of a daft market.
And are LLOY really going to shaft HMG by offering 0.4 of a LLOY (worth 70p) for every HBoS share HMG bought for £1.13 ????|
|dexdringle: ...saw a copy of a circular to HBoS staff yesterday (dated Fri 17th October) with message to them from Eric Daniels. Basically he explained the 0.6 adjustment, and explained that this was due to the HMG capital raising (ie not the HBoS share price) and stated that he was satisfied that this was THE deal. He hoped that this would lay to rest some speculation in the press about the terms of the deal being changed. Then he said the deal was compelling for both parties etc etc
LLOY @ £1.75 means they are effectively paying only £1.05 for each HBoS share. HMG are paying £1.13 for 7.5bn HBoS shares. LLOY will therefore receive £1.13 cash for each £1.05 exchanged for the 7.5bn HMG shares. On that portion, which represents 60% of all HBoS shares, LLOY are making a profit of £600M. On the balance LLOY pay £1.05 each for 5.5bn shares currently trading at 83p. A loss of £1.2bn. Overall neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things. Remember :
1. LLOY need a deal. They have been in doldrums for years.
2. HBoS "normal" profitability is almost twice LLOY.
3. Reputations depend on this holding together.
4. LLOY need to raise capital - this deal allows their shareholders (perhaps) to bag some at a bargain price if sentiment picks up between now and January.
5. LLOY will not risk losing this by p*ssing about with the deal for the odd few pence a share.
The market value of the shares, and the value of HBoS to Eric Daniels, are not the same. The market value of the share and the true value of the business are not the same. It's juvenile to say "LLOY will re-negotiate 'cos HBoS share price has fallen below the offer". What are the chances of an offer and share price being identical - when does that ever happen ?
Inter Bank lending is thawing. HBoS can use HMG guarantees. HBoS are de-leveraging all the time (redemptions / capital repayments £6bn per month - new lending tiny). Cost of capital funds is the main eroder of margin but is improving. Reposession losses (note losses) will be no more than £1.5bn if that. Adjustments will be made for toxic debt on the balance sheet (maybe £6bn). Then you have a bank with £30bn net assets and huge market share. All for £10bn or so.
The faster LLOY start making "committed to 0.6" statements the less chance there will be of predators buying up HBoS shares and causing LLOY problems. Will be interesting to se what happens if HBoS go over the 0.6 later in 2008.......|
|chairman2: Lloyds PR machine is getting increasingly desperate - so dont take all that confident guff at full face value - make your own mind up.
In any all-share acquisition positions are taken by M&A specialised Hedge Funds - they may be a much weaker force than in previous years
but there will still be some there. Their activities support the HBOS
share price (buy the company being bid for) and hit LLOY (sell the bidder)
In past transactions they have typically accumulated about 25% of the vote
by the time the shareholders take the decision. They always vote in favour.
This time the presence of HMG as the Elephant at the party makes the situation
difficult to read. But given the almost certain collapse
of the HBOS share price if the deal fails to go through the game
,may invert this time. HF shorting HBOS and buying LLoyds in a'Pairs'
trade could easily accumulate 25% of the LLOY votes and vote the deal down
- thereby generating potentially huge gains.
HBOS shareholders need to be very very careful in my view.|
|la vallette: Mellious22 - 18 Oct'08 - 14:40 - 20852 of 20858
So La Vallette, what do you expect to happen on Monday with the SP?
Want an EXACT honest answer?....NO IDEA!..we are living in a global situation where events in America/ Asia can have a domino effect( good or bad) and in the next 36 hours anything can happen that would have an adverse effect on major markets, which would in turn affect the leading 100 shares in this country...something you already know do not need reminding of & history has plenty of examples..
I can only say that as things stand the noises been made by Alex Salmond and the lack of clarity over the issue of investors not getting immediate dividends will mean that the HBOS share price will be below the .6 HBOS for 1 LLOY merged share.
If I had the certain figure for opening then it's unlikely I would need to trade,but sticking my neck out I would say it will trade in the 150--160 range over the course of the day..AS THING STAND...
Having said that it goes out the window if anything happens between now and 8 am Monday,with the dividend issue priced into SP,as things stand, and fund managers of both banks looking to HMG to back track on the dividend....in which case LLOY would rapidly North..with HBOS playing catch up.
Only HBOS trading below the .6 re-negotiated deal on Monday looks certain with the lack of clarity over the dividend,and with the banks "Independent" stance gathering force under the SNP,it will create further uncertainty & stability to the HBOS share... as it trails in the wake of the LLOY SP|
|mellious22: It is hardly going to be exactly 0.605 of the LLOY share price with the deal not complete, until shareholders agree. Consider when the ratio was 0.83 then HBOS share price was still around only 0.5-0.6 max, so this is a fairly valued if overvalued share price based on the situation.|
Hbos share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange