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Hayward Tyl Share Discussion Threads
Showing 1401 to 1423 of 1425 messages
I am not sure I can pile in, but at this share price there is a case for forgiving EBL his apparent misjudgment (not that we are fully aware of the facts). Contrary to others , I don't believe the £2.4m RBS loan is such a big issue in the scheme of things so my stance is to ease back in with due consideration to the risk v reward.|
|I have just started to buy back in, Market Cap now below £20m. Redeploying earlier profits from a couple of 15/16 trades. Directors holdings might help to limit any dilution of all shareholders and I can't help but feel Christopher Mills/Harwood will support post year end before they run out of road. Obviously, I would prefer RBS to be supportive...I don't believe they are. The half year results will have escalated their credit lines to a higher level which will have disappointed all concerned. I suspect some internal RBS politics isn't helping HAYT. What they need to avoid is RBS calling for a business review by big 4 so I hope the FD can illustrate some highly probable profitable forecasts asap. Without all the facts, a bit of a punt, trying to balance all we do know.
Good luck to holders|
|Well RogerR, if your analysis is correct then now is the time to pile in at what will turn out to have been a knock-down price, rather than waiting until the world and his dog to be alerted. I've certainly done well out of LPA.|
|Some parallels here with LPA where a hole in the order book suppressed the share price during 2015 but was more than reversed when the expected orders started to come through. Always a risk with small engineering companies with long lead time contracts resulting in lumpy order intake.
The situation with HAYT looks like it will be resolved even quicker , I estimate the o/book is at least at the £60m level compared to £36m level at this time last year and there is the prospect of more to come in the near future particularity with a recovery in the oil an gas sector. IMO I do not think there will be any issues with the level of debt given the expected trading level going forward.|
I'm not a bull for this stock but in answer to your question about the oil segment of the business. In FY 2015 it was 2% of order intake. That was boosted to 21% FY 2016. No idea what it is now. All info taken from public docs.
I'm a buyer when financing is sorted. Sold out at 83p and toy'd with going short (see my previous posts)...bottled it and now regret it!!
|The chart reflects the fact that orders have been delayed, long term funding is not yet sorted and the result of shorters, please don't tell me this hasn't been shorted as it was confirmed to me on another board.
Not sure what China has got to do with HAYT in general if your saying cash is king then every share that requires funding is under threat. RBS is not foreign last time I looked.
China have also announced that the building of nuclear plants are set to increase after a recent slowdown, renewable energy is also increasing all area's where HAYT are involved.
The price at the moment is rock bottom and any sort of positive contract news will push it back up if/when the long term funding is agreed then market makers will open up far greater than it is now as they know investors that recently sold will want to get back in.
There seems to be quite a few ex holders sitting on the sidelines perhaps hoping the price drops further before getting back in. However the market seems to be happy with its current price as any selling is met with buyers.|
|Some interesting posts/views
The chart of a company's share price says it all and at the moment the chart of HAYT is not good.
This is not talking down the share , it is a statement of fact.
I like to look at MACROS before making an investment, hence my previous question as to what %age of HAYT revenues where dependent on the OIL industry ?
That nobody has answered this makes me think you guys do not know OR that the company has never released this data.
Another MACRO to ponder going forward from here and has relevance to many posts recently
Inflation in China is set to rise quite sharply
This will be reflected on the ROW doing the same, the cheap stuff that ROW has been importing from China is set to get more expensive
Getting hold of cheap foreign money to service debts and keep the credit binge going is going to become dearer/harder for individuals and for companies, rates are set for a rise now after years of cheap money.
The cost of borrowing is set to rise
Cash will become king once again
Getting hold of same is now proving difficult for some as banks have known this for the last year or so.|
|I guess the current price reflects that hence why I now believe this is a very good time to buy. Time will tell|
The company won't go to the wall imo and I've never suggested anything close to that. But as to the CEO being not able to predict delayed orders I think ELB is being economical with the truth here. Look back through the posts in November at the time of the Interims and it was pretty obvious from the order book that the FY numbers weren't going to be hit, ELB was plundering the pipeline rather than orderbook to get his projections to stack.|
|They have a lot of expense and no CEO can predict delayed orders. Sounds like he has tried to push the business forward on the back of these orders and has backfired slightly.
But still can't see RBS letting this company go to the wall as some have suggested here.|
I don't think anybody disputes that HAYT produces good quality products and the upgrade of facilities in Luton will produce a more efficient company going forward. (but as seen at Sepura who also produced a quality product but managed to get itself in short term financial difficulties to the detriment of shareholders) Good management requires that you also successfully steer the company financially through the transition which regardless of how this turns out I think everyone can agree has been a problem.|
Posted this on LSE when a customer invests $2 million then it does give you some confidence that orders will come in.|
|E.L.B 16th March 2017
'we have to ensure that we have the right capital structure and funding facilities in place to support that' (referring to growth strategy)|
|lignum, they have given great deal of info as to what is happening but it is certainly up to you and others whither you accept their explanations.
If you don't buy into my theory or you have additional doubts then you shouldn't buy.|
|If you want to buy the share then I guess you best wait, no one forces anyone to buy shares in any company it's a personal choice.
Thing is do your research which you clearly have done hence your keen to want shares and wait until the loan has been sorted.
Quite a few people have taken a view and bought already but that's by choice.
We have given some reasons as to the delay in resolving the funding could be totally wrong but could be 100% and not wishing to jump in after news leaks which is not uncommon on AIM.|
|PA: Very fair comments - Fully agree with your friend re RBS screwing !! In your scenario down to orders being received in good time - In mine a possible delay where extra funding becomes a necessity - Only time will tell - but in the spirit of this thread I wish you "bon chance" that your scenario comes out on top.|
|HAYT have been giving us updates on 'new' banking facilities for 4 months now and all that is happening is that the RBS facility is being rolled forward from month to month.
I want to buy this share but I cannot as I have no idea (i) what their financing situation is (ii) why they are unable to resolve whatever problem they have that is stopping them putting in place longer term financing.
I am not shorting the share and I wish the Company and all shareholders success. However there is something not right here. If it is all right then the company is not communicating correctly.|
|"RBS will give them all the money they want, at a price,"
If you are going to quote people it's best you do it accurately.
The recent short term funding could easily be seen as a means of avoiding entering into a longterm funding agreement with RBS on disadvantageous terms.
The delay in completing the £30m of near term contracts and the movement of the repayment day has been seized on by many here as some sort of proof that the £2.4m is critical and if the company cant't repay that then they must be in dire trouble.
This is certainly NOT my view.
Recently I contacted a very good friend of mine to ask about this. The reason for contacting my friend was that he had been the CFO of a FTSE 100 company in his day and obviously would be able to help me out.
I did not give my friend the name of the company I was asking about.
The questions came thick and fast and I was obviously correct,he certainly did know his stuff.
After a few minutes and after a few scathing comments about management getting into this situation be was fairly unequivocal in saying that they could get the £2,4m "in a heartbeat" but RBS would want to roll it into a longer (and bigger ?) loan but would "screw them".
Obviously my friend had dealt with banks before and was not a fan.
I must admit that I thought they may have to repay the £2.4m BEFORE getting a further loan but NO the money would certainly be there but AT A PRICE.
With the contracts secured and all looking rosy then RBS would have to improve their offer.
With the contracts secured then HT could walk.
A long term banking relationship is not something to discard lightly but it works both ways.
Better to take out short term (one year) loans at 7% now in order to negotiate a much larger,longer term loan at a later date.
CURRENT,ACTUAL SHAREHOLDERS: I am getting more than a little tired of this and you will see that our most recent contribution to the "DEBATE" was a simple regurgitation of all the previous "rights issue", "PIs to get screwed" etc.
Not been an investor here for very long but can find no trace of outrage at PIs not being included in the fund raising of over £9m at 90p in Dec 2015.
As I only empathise with the real,actual,current shareholders here it is best I say that I have bought more HAYT and this now constitutes 9% of my portfolio.
As a result of my purchases I must be viewed as a raging bull here but I hope to remain rational.
I have made my purchases based on the stance I've taken on the debt repayment but I've been wrong before and will be again but to my credit I've NEVER blamed anyone else.|
'RBS will give them all the money they want'
Perhaps you can then explain why HAYT bothered tapping up High Net Worth individuals for £600,000 in short term funding (1 year at 7%) in February to make a partial payment to RBS? And why wasn't this the additional long term funding they promised in December?|
|Think that comes across loud and from the CEO from all I have read and listened to in his interviews.
He reiterated that the orders are delayed not cancelled possibly via pre tender deals or just verbal orders with customers waiting for the official orders themselves before committing to any buying.
Seems lead times were quite so customers have had to order well in advance but have recently read that lead times have been halved so maybe customers are holding back orders knowing full well they will still get equipment on time.|
|Now we're getting somewhere, good post grahamwales.
The short tern shortfall could have been covered in a heartbeat but HAYT want to get things sorted out for the next three years not the next six months.
On the other side RBS will give them all the money they want, at a price, so the order confirmation delay and the reluctance of HAYT to tidy things up short term makes sense even if it does upset those here who would prefer a deal at any price.(but then they don't hold any shares so this isn't a great problem)
If Hayt get the £30m delayed orders in the bag they will get a better deal from RBS by virtue of the fact that they can simply walk away a get finance elsewhere.
A long term banking relationship would not be discarded lightly but it cuts both ways.
(If I have missed my weather window I will be really grumpy but then who would notice !!?)|
|My guess is that the extension on the short term loan is for HAYT to prove they have these delayed orders before committing to increased funding.
They have already got 2 orders and my guess there will be more to follow before the end of April.
So the question is how many orders do RBS want to see and how much do HAYT want in additional funding.|
|The standard of "debate" has been dreadful and the level of genuine research has been even worse but then that's only my opinion.
Taken private, going belly up, screwed by onerous loan notes !!!
Yes this has been a wonderful, balanced and useful "debate".
Sky cleared, snow stopped, so I can now get out my run but just one point and I shouldn't really give out more than I've been given here but anyone who thinks this is about a £2.4m short term loan has got things seriously wrong.
Debate that !!!|