Harvey Nash Grp Share Discussion Threads

[thorpematt] 28/2/2018 22:06

Not to be confused with italics.


...which of course would be slopey writing.

[mongrels3] 28/2/2018 14:42

Pre-close trading update. Apologies, sloppy writing.

[edmundshaw] 28/2/2018 14:39

I thought it was a trading statement on Friday?

[mongrels3] 28/2/2018 14:16

Results this Friday. About a year since DBAY got openly involved. Let's hope our patience will eventually be rewarded!!

[thorpematt] 11/1/2018 08:32

Yes I'd agree with that the market is a bit scared of this one. Sentiment could easily turn IF it can be convinced the future is positive. It fails some tests on margins this one which I thiink is a red flag for a lot of analysts (rightly so they're not stupid). But we'll see. I sense there is more upside than down likely anyway!

[its the oxman] 10/1/2018 17:29

Bought a few in hope that next update and result are positive. Not a big bet but if management can convince and deliver the earnings this time, then it could rerate.

[essential] 03/1/2018 07:55

Hopefully good read across from Staffline today

[lodgeview] 08/12/2017 16:02

Stockopedia likes this one. So do I.

[deeppockets] 08/12/2017 15:48

Poor management and overpaid! Not nearly as sharp as their main competitors.

[piwood] 08/12/2017 15:35

Forecast EPS growth of 22% at year end.

[essential] 08/12/2017 14:43

Topped up - oversold on RSI - so nibbledva few more. 90+ stockrank

[essentialinvestor] 08/12/2017 14:16

Joined you guys, small amount.

As has been mentioned HVN margins have been discussed
for as long as I can remember, and that's quite far back these days.

Not high conviction for me, have to be honest.

[abcurtis] 08/12/2017 14:06

Edmund Could the gov tax thing be seen as a shock that affects their future ability to ride the cycle? Also on the German thing, have all the costs been written off? Was there something contingent on future performance of, was it Nashtech? That could still come through to hit the balance sheet?

[davidosh] 08/12/2017 13:57

Lightning can strike twice and it is almost exactly one year ago for Creston shareholders...

To facilitate the deal, Dbay, the Isle of Mam Isle of Man-based financial services authority, has created a new entity; RedWhiteBlue Digital Marketing Services with the agreed share price expected to be paid by Creston on 20 December.

Alex Paiusco, CEO of DBAY said: "We have been significant investors in Creston for over two years and are excited about this opportunity to help develop the business, alongside its management team and employees, and to fulfil its potential. The Acquisition is the culmination of our progressive interest in Creston and we are very pleased to have reached agreement with the Independent Creston Directors on an attractive cash proposal for Creston Shareholders".

[gleach23] 08/12/2017 13:55

Spooked by EMR update in November (although it didn't follow EMR on the way up)?

Also bought back in today.

[edmundshaw] 08/12/2017 13:31

ab, the profit margin has been a concern for investors for the last ten years at least. But they keep on delivering EPS through the cycles and managing it with staff levels, bonus levels etc. Historically they had low margins because of their particular trading model (and e.g. the German subsid, though that has gone now). And now DBay has entered the fray presumably with the intention of sharpening up the efficiency and profitability to close the gap with other recruiters, potentially a huge positive.

I am pretty optimistic about this co at the moment, and not just for one reason. I think David's 120p is easily on the cards if things go as expected.

[abcurtis] 08/12/2017 13:13

I think you need to look at the accounts on this one and compare to another recruiter like HAYS. My quick calc (and aplogies if I am completely wrong), shows HAYS Net Profit of 2.7% vs HVN at 0.7% (figures from Stockopedia)(calc by me).

That kind of reconciles with my anecdotal evidence that HVN does a type of low commission payroll service, I guess hoping the service with big clients will have higher volumes of contractors. I also think this is what attracted DBAY to see it as something they could help become more productive and improve the Net Profit.

Then factor in the Govs news to introduce public sector contractor tax changes into the private sector and I could see how that thin profit margin could be squeezed to a loss

[shauney2] 08/12/2017 12:51

I was hoping they would be taken out by Dbay by then David.Wishful thinking maybe.

[davidosh] 08/12/2017 12:49

I have just bought in here as the news from the company seems to have been positive and forecasts put this one a p/e of 6 and yield of 6% so something will change....I suspect when the forecasts are hopefully met we should see £1.20 or so. I will certainly try to get these guys to present at Mello2018 in April

[xajorkith] 08/12/2017 12:25

Must admit, the recent chart looks awful & resembles an iceberg as we head below the waterline at 80p.

Getting to the point where they should issue an RNS imv - even if just to report they are trading "in line".

Sentiment being battered, despite the apparently excellent fundamentals.

[lucifer100] 08/12/2017 11:42

Something weird going on with this share, the fundamentals look fine yet it’s going down like the Titanic!

[yf23_1] 07/12/2017 16:58

Downgrade of recruiters PAGE and ???

[xajorkith] 07/12/2017 16:44

Timed that post well :(

Seems rumour more important than fact & clearly too risky for some judging by today's fall.

Back to key resistance around 80p & an absolute steal imv.

Wtfdik though, so probably best to chase BTC to infinity & beyond ;)

[xajorkith] 06/12/2017 22:46

To be fair larva, a cursory glance through your posts indicates there isn't much you would touch ;-)

As they say, it's a consultation and nothing has yet been decided.

One view from Dave Chaplin, CEO and founder of online contracting site ContractorCalculator pretty much sums up the risks:

"Even with the prospect of a consultation on the cards – the rolling out of the reforms to the private sector is likely to end up being an economic disaster. Rolling out the reforms to the private sector will be like pouring glue on the flexible economy. Taxes will decrease as people move from lucrative freelancing to lower paid permanent work, and the cost of hiring the remaining contractors will rise as rates go up due to changes in supply and demand.

Business will have less agility by not being able to access UK freelancers in any easy way, and many will turn to online freelance portals to hire freelancers overseas – without the red tape burden associated with IR35. [It will be a] complete and utter disaster for UK Plc."

Given the strong opposition from big business, I can't see such a weak government introducing this in the economically sensitive run up to Brexit.

More than priced in for me.

[larva] 04/12/2017 14:09

The changes to IR35 currently plaguing the public sector look set to be extended into the private sector, after the Chancellor announced a consultation into off-payroll working in the private sector in the Autumn Budget.

Introduced into the public sector in April 2017, the reforms have caused unprecedented damage. With many contractors preferring to seek opportunities elsewhere rather than risk being incorrectly classed as ‘inside IR35’, public sector bodies have been starved of critical skills.

The fallout has led to delayed and cancelled projects, and the deterioration of public services such as the NHS. With the proposed private sector rollout, the Government threatens to further hamper flexible working in the UK, causing damage to UK plc on a far grander scale.

From the Budget document:

3.7 Off-payroll working in the private sector – The government reformed the off-payroll working rules (known as IR35) for engagements in the public sector in April 2017. Early indications are that public sector compliance is increasing as a result, and therefore a possible next step would be to extend the reforms to the private sector, to ensure individuals who effectively work as employees are taxed as employees even if they choose to structure their work through a company. It is right that the government take account of the needs of businesses and individuals who would implement any change. Therefore the government will carefully consult on how to tackle non-compliance in the private sector, drawing on the experience of the public sector reforms, including through external research already commissioned by the government and due to be published in 2018.

What are the IR35 reforms?

Traditionally it has been the contractor’s responsibility to evaluate their IR35 status for each contract and deduct tax accordingly. However, the reforms – already in effect in the public sector – require end clients to carry out an IR35 assessment for each contractor they engage.

If the contractor is supplied via a recruitment agency, the agency is responsible for deducting tax via Pay As You Earn (PAYE) if the contractor is judged to be caught by IR35. If the client engages the contractor directly, the client is required to make the tax deductions.

The tax liability risk also shifts further up the supply chain. If HMRC investigates and finds that a contractor has been paying tax as ‘outside IR35’ where it believes they are caught, the agency can be targeted for backdated tax, penalties and interest. This is unless it can be proven that the client hasn’t taken ‘reasonable care’ when assessing the contractor’s status, in which case they then become liable.






I wouldn't touch this one now