||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Hardy Amies (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
I'm sure you're right on both counts
Certainly it will be a long haul. The debt burden is now very heavy & at 10% over base makes bottom line profit a fair way off. I am sure they would have liked an equity injection to clear debt & take the company forward, but trading conditions & now the results will keep the share price where it is medium term, so no choice.
That said, Maunders' concentration on EBITDA is entirely right in assessing the state of the company's progress. They have shown they will stick with it & I agree that if they show real progress, they will be able to get an equity issue away in 1-2 years, clear the debt & move away. Meanwhile, I would suspect they will need yet more loan funding later this year, with the new shops (& the interest to pay!).
One point. I read the RNS that they are giving up on the women's range, other than couture in the House. Not perhaps entirely clear from the wording, but perhaps you might revisit? I think that is so.
In fact, I take that as a plus. I am impressed by Maunders bluntness in accepting the failure of the women's range is entirely the company's own fault & the willingness to cut losses (also presumably sacking Brunning?) & concentrate on the successes.
All-in-all, put away, forget about & perhaps a nice surprise in due course, tho' it is now, as you very rightly say, a long term punt at fairly long odds.|
|boscolane: A quick lesson in HRD speak.
For 'imminent' read 'to the wire'
One more thing Brunning said by the way. He said he welcomed calls from small shareholders and thought it was a healthy thing. He also commented that the report would make 'very interesting reading'. Not sure he would have said any of this if they were about to shaft the lot of us.
He didnt say anything which gave 'inside information' but at the current share price confirmation that they are solvent was encouraging.|
|boscolane: Morning fellow sufferers !!
I like the new website. The prices are high but without doubt the quality of the clothes and designs are exceptional. The test now, of course, is to make sure people sample them. That means some level of marketing and advertising. Maybe thats why they need the 500 thousand.
The share price is at a level where the city expects the company to go bust. My view is that the MMs take a serious risk here in dealing at around 1p as I suspect they could get seriously burnt.
I have mentally written these off BUT i have spoken to Nigel Brunning on a few occasions and the calculation is this. Either HRD is making real progress albeit in a difficult sector and economic climate or he's lying. Call me naive but I genuinely get the sense that the management are extremely effective.
I dont belive they plan to shaft shareholders and I hope the next update will clarify exactly where they are in development. I dont expect the new stores to be making money, that is simply unrealistic with start up costs and lack of public awareness. I think we simply need to see progress and listen to their forward projections.
Sermon over, now let the share price crash another 50% !!|
|39rich: Is it worth a punt at the current share price|
|ladybird1: We've been over the ground a few times, I think.
They will need additional finance, as they have said. If the expansion is progressing well, the share price will rise & a rights issue at a decent price becomes feasible. If not, an injection of funds, presumably by Arev, the only route and consequently serious dilution, as clocktower says.
Funding doesn't have to be imminent, of course, but I imagine it will be clear how things are going by half year report. They will play fair if they can, I'm sure, but the outcome of the big gamble will decide what happens.|
|boscolane: In theory a rights issue would result in dilution BUT it wouldnt necessarily lead to a fall in the share price. It depends on a number of factors including the price of the issued shares. Rights issues that raise money for successful companies are seen as a good thing as it gives them more funds to expand and improve.|
|bungler: damloy you have my sympathies - but no point in bailing now I'd have thought. ladybird - thanks and I agree high risk and potentially (still) very high reward. If we can stand back for a moment here and look at it objectively: what exactly has changed since the excitement of October? We have had no update on progress at the stores - not exactly a disaster and perhaps can be explained because they want to make a splash in the finals after which, if news is good and share price rises, they could raise more money if they need it. We have been told no profit until "after 2008" - which , as clocktower has said could mean 2020 for all we know - not good but again not surprising. They have always said expansion is the name of the game at the moment.
So far as raising more money goes they said this last June 19th; "Hardy Amies announces that it has secured a loan of #2,853,000 from Arev Brands Limited ("ABL"), a substantial shareholder. The loan will be used to fund working capital, as well as to provide funds for Hardy Amies' planned store rollout. The loan is intended to enable the Company to fund its expansion programme over the next two and a half years. Depending upon the rate of growth of the Company and the cost and pace of the store rollout programme, use of the proceeds of this loan may be sufficient to allow the Company to achieve a profitable trading position. As a consequence, the Company may not require any further equity funding over the next two and a half years."
Against that is the statement on 21st September: " Looking forward, the company said it is currently considering the longer term funding options for the business with a view to accelerate growth beyond 2008. This could include a rights issue next year, it said. Hardy Amies said its second-half trading expenses will rise as the new stores come on stream and the company incurs pre-opening costs."
The two statements aren't necessarily contradictory - Arev might just want to get its loan money back at some stage this year. But they're not likely to press for it if it means a rights issue at a low price and a substantial dilution of their shareholding I'd have thought? It's not like they're short of money.
So 2 possible scenarios:
1/ Rose-tinted spectacles view: Given that they may want to have a rights issue they will need to get the share price up (don't forget that both Brunning and Phillips bought 1 million shares at 1.25 on the 4th October and Phillips also has options for another 20 million (!) at 1p ((11th Jan 2007)). So, what's the best way to please the market? Lower expectations, clear out all the old problems, roll out some new stores, keep all the good news back until a stunning set of figures in the summer and then raise more money.
2/ This is all rubbish. They've expanded too fast in a rotten market and are stuffed. As are we.
PS ladybird why do you think further loan unlikely?|
|ladybird1: I think you hit the nail on the head, clocktower. They will have to raise more money (as thay have frankly said) to finance their expansion programme & to repay the loan in due course. If the share price stays low, they will not get a rights issue away without significant dilution. Further debt is not an option without good progress being evident, which of course would lift the share price anyway.
The couture business looks well set and the far eastern ventures may very likely do well. But the focus in the short term will be on the UK retail, in that this is where they have made their greatest commitment. You will recall they were not just talking of those stores already opened but more in 2008 and that all costs money. If Uk is not showing progress by half year, then they are likely to have a problem and your scenarios takes centre stage.
We don't yet have any analysis of the figures, of course, but HN has several months back in house and the new stores were there for the Xmas trade. The figures don't look as if they've generated much and certainly the statement was conspicous by its absence of any words like 'encouraging start' or indeed any direct reference to their performance.
In fairness, the company warned the UK retail would take time to develop. Finals should give more idea. But in the meantime I can only agree with your concluding word.|
|boscolane: Thats a very pessimistic outlook ladybird. Retail sales are down on last year but the economy isn't collapsing and there is no reason to suggest the new HRD stores are dramatically underperforming.
In fact at the top end there is still plenty of money so things may not be as bad as some people think.
the new licence agreements are in place and costs are being contained. Just because a few people selling has caused a share price drop doesnt necessarily mean the update will be bad.|
|mirex: I wouldn't want to release a TU this week, suicide for the share price! DEB had a good TU and went down! But, as you say, top and bottom ends of retail are OK with the big boys and middle suffering even on good statements thouhg. With FTSE touching 6k, DOW down triple figures again, lows are being tested everywhere!
Still waiting for WLW statement, confident here and there! Depends on market though. Flatlined here is fine, one of the only shares i haven't lost on lately!
:o) Hoping for 21st or 24th for TU from HRD!|
Hardy Amies share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange