H&t Share Discussion Threads

[cnx] 24/8/2011 17:13

gwatson56
as a holder with a long term view i also like the following..........

"Trading outlook

The outlook for the Group continues to be positive. For the current financial year, the Board believes that the overall trading performance will result in full year profits being above the top end of current market expectations. Looking further forward, the Group still holds excellent prospects for organic growth in pawnbroking as the store estate is still relatively immature. The average size of a pledge book for the Group's pre-2005 stores is over 3.5x greater than the average of the post 2005 greenfield stores, demonstrating the considerable growth potential existing in these newer stores as their pledge books continue to grow to a size more consistent with the estate average.

Depending on market conditions, future growth is also likely to be driven via expansion of the Group's geographical footprint, either via development of greenfield sites or acquisitions. The Board currently expect to open a total of 25 stores in the current financial year. "

[ronjen] 23/8/2011 19:24

From this evening's ADVFN Evening Market Bulletin:

FinnCap says that H&T Group has made good progress in its core areas, and reiterates its buy rating on the pawnbroker.

"This pattern of events follows 2010, and gold price-related profit upgrades will no doubt follow," said analyst Duncan Hall.

The price target of 450p is left in place.

[scotches] 23/8/2011 18:44

The opinion of some here is that ABM already has an unwarranted higher valuation than HAT.

With regard to today's results I think that suggests full year EPS will be over 40 - compared to the 28 and latterly 34 that was sitting for many months as the broker forecasts for HAT.

[niggle] 23/8/2011 09:38

Great stuff, watching Albermarle as well as I thought that would have benefitted too? also how about Cash Converters

[mikey34] 23/8/2011 08:17

Excellent results and to be honest fairly predictable.Everything the co have said pointed to this but the mkt hadn't really taken notice.

[gwatson56] 23/8/2011 08:04

Straight into auction .....

[gwatson56] 23/8/2011 07:36

The best bit that I like is .....

"The outlook for the Group continues to be positive. For the current financial year, the Board believes that the overall trading performance will result in full year profits being above the top end of current market expectations."

Looking forward to a steady climb to £4......

[kimball808] 23/8/2011 07:11

Record half year (against projected full year)....well done

[scotches] 15/8/2011 14:34

Year Ending Profit (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-Dec-11 11.81 34.37p 9.7 n/a -30% 10.20p 3.1%

Barclays info now predicting 34.37 EPS - from 28.83 mentioned in post 185.

Also on Barclays the broker views list an upgrade from FINNCAP recently with target of 450p

Date Broker name New Price Old price target New price target Broker change
10-Aug-11 FinnCap Buy 347.50p 450.00p - Upgrade

[kimball808] 02/8/2011 16:36

And now sold out...GL all

[kimball808] 06/7/2011 14:25

Breaking out....:-)

[scotches] 28/6/2011 15:12

Yes the gold profits are subject to wild swings. However that interim report suggested they were holding up well.

"Gold purchasing profits have also remained strong and the Board expects that profits and margins for H1 11 from this segment to be broadly in line with H2 10"

We'll see soon enough the effect on earnings. Whatever the fluctuations happy enough to hold this business in these economic conditions.

[wjccghcc] 21/6/2011 12:43

scotches, 30% of their gross profit came from gold purchasing last year. While still doing okay, it's a temporary boost given the high price of gold and people flogging their unwanted jewelry. There's a lot more competition now and the easy money has been made - hence the predicted fall in earnings.

[scotches] 21/6/2011 12:04

Barclays Stockbrokers have updated their HAT share screen to increase forecast EPS.

31-Dec-11 10.97 30.54p 11.3 n/a -37% 10.20p 2.9%

Now it's 30.54p from 28.83p earlier. So just a 37% fall in EPS predicted - I'm obviously missing something. Anyone got any ideas?


The broker views page is also updated
17-Jun-11 FinnCap Hold 346.88p 350.00p - Reiteration
17-Jun-11 Peel Hunt Limited Buy 346.88p 340.00p - Reiteration

That page needs a revamp or a clarification of what the terms mean. Why would Peel Hunt issue a "buy" note at the current price of 346p if their target price is 340p.

[scotches] 17/6/2011 09:07

In the last completed financial year to December 2010 there were 13 new store openings and EPS moved up from 37.75p to 48.77p.

The forecast EPS (as appears on Barclays) to Dec 11 is a massive fall to 28.83p. The total new stores are meant to be 20 by the end of the year - why would that have such a devastating impact on EPS - are the new stores this year massively more expensive than previous years, doesn't make sense.

The accounts mentioned there was a one-off profit contribution of £4.9m from "Working capital improvements and new processes at the jewellery centre" in the year to Dec 10, which clearly wont be there this time. However this still doesn't account for a predicted EPS fall of over 40%. Maybe you are not meant to pay much attention to these figures since the number of covering analysts is so few.

As predicted by various earlier posts today's pre-close trading update says the true outcome will be "strong" and above forecast. "...the Board expects strong first half results and to deliver full-year profit before taxation above the top end of current market expectations, despite the costs of the continuing new store expansion programme."

So as usual HAT has to inform the market that it will surprise on the upside.

[kimball808] 17/6/2011 08:22

Shame it seems either unloved/under the radar...

[eagle eye] 17/6/2011 08:11

Yet another trading statement that under promises and over delivers.

[kimball808] 17/6/2011 07:07

Tis a sweet sounding update...:-) at the mercy of Macro events to determine share price movement today...

[kimball808] 01/6/2011 09:34

Fair comments...As at June 2010 HAT were very much ahead of their full year forecasts. Lets hope it is likewise this year...

[scotches] 01/6/2011 09:07

I had also been wondering if the forecast big drop in EPS was now accurate. The assumption was that the increased costs of new store openings and their early stage development when they did not contribute would markedly reduce profits.

However I still like that Red Tom article in the header post above which although a year out of date gives various ideas for how to value the company. That article makes much of the idea of valuing pawnbrokers in relation to size of pledge book. That isn't divorced from the surge in gold prices since of course a lot of the pledge book will be gold related.

However unless I am getting the decimal point in the wrong place it still makes little sense for HAT to have such a low rating in relation to its main competitor ABM.
ABM recent pledge book was £37m and current market cap is £185m. So that's about 5 times the pledge book. HAT has a pledge book of £39.5m and a market cap of 123m. On that valuation method alone HAT should be £5.50 so there must be some other factor suppressing HAT price - I guess a perceived lower quality of earnings.

[kimball808] 01/6/2011 07:56

just an assumption, when was the forecast for 2011 last updated? Accountants forecast where we will be at point x,y and Z, the further out the harder to predict. All the recent macro changes as in my post above are quite recent, in my view, and I feel are great conditions for the likes of H&T. I guess we will find out in the next TS. yesterdays rise very strange though...

[philo124] 01/6/2011 07:39

Re redundant forecasts, you are correct. It was an interview with the CEO;
i just thought it was a bit tacky that's all.

[kimball808] 01/6/2011 06:20

Philo, in general what did they say about their business model?
Digital look have have a reduction in EPS of 41% for ye 2011. But I wonder if the constant rise of gold combined with inflation and austerity would make these forecasts redundant???

[philo124] 31/5/2011 20:14

I sold too early, but at a good profit; i was bit underwhelmed by their bisness
model in an interview in shares magazine. However i admit it was a mistake to sell.