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H&T Group Share Discussion Threads
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|Or perhaps pawnbrokers in view because of that Ramsdens float.
3i article "Ramsdens IPO is 'extremely cheap'"
Aside from currency exchange, Ramsdens' pawnbroking loans business pays customers cash for unwanted jewellery, gold and other precious metals. It sells rings, bracelets and watches on its website.
Jeremy Grime, financials analyst at broker finnCap, calculates each Ramsdens store makes £250,000 of revenue and £42,000 of cash profit every year. That compares with rival listed pawnbroker H&T's (HAT) 181 stores, which generate £513,000 and £71,000, underlining H&T's better positioned estate, says Grime.
He thinks Ramsdens can double profit from growing its stores, and that the shares could be a bargain, pointing out that, using the 86p IPO price, Ramsdens trades on 0.85 times revenue and 5 times EBITDA. H&T trades at 1.1 times revenue and 8 times EBITDA.
"There is no doubt that H&T is a superior business," admits Grime, however, "Were Ramsdens to trade at a 20% discount to H&T it would trade at 110p. So 86p is extremely cheap."
Traders clearly thought so, chasing the shares up 17% early doors. They've come off a bit since, but still sit 13% above the IPO price, and over 13% below the 110p figure mentioned by Grime.|
|Lots of modest buys on a Friday has the look of an Investors Chronicle tip.|
|was it tipped? A lot of buying on the open|
|Tipped in shares mag and IC as buy|
|Gotta be long on Gold at moment.|
|Zopa's projected default rate for 2016-originated loans has risen again. At 4.01%, it is closing in on its 2008 high of 4.25%.
The Bank of England report rising personal and corporate default rates in Q4. Mortgage availability shrank for the 4th consecutive quarter so one wonders if the sharp rise in unsecured credit over that period is out of desperation:
Indicators of changes in loan performance on consumer credit were mixed in recent months. Lenders responding to the CCS reported a second consecutive significant increase in the default rate on other unsecured loans in Q4.
Following falls in recent years, respondents to the CCS reported a rise in Q4 in the default rate on loans to medium PNFCs and a slight rise in the default rate on loans to small businesses.|
|Tipped in the Mail will be a good ride with assets backed by some p2p leading against them hopefully.|
|trading at asset value, upgrades, 10x earnings with 20% EPS growth. The gold price also helping.|
|All looking very good here.|
|Fincapp talking about 10% upgrades and increase target price to 400p.|
|Ahead of expectations - again. This one seems to be gaining momentum. It would be nice if the dividend is ahead of expectations, as well.|
|UK personal insolvencies accelerating:
|It's a bit disappointing to see gains being given up as gold falls back but credit markets are seeing default rates rising significantly..
I cannot honestly claim to have got all my recent top up at as low as 235 but as I said at the time I though it oversold. I achieved mostly below 240 so I am happy with that.
I am guessing a little delay at 300 before any further move up (which could be a quite dramatic one IMO). Historically 320 and 360 are levels which might be ceilings but I think sentiment here is very positive so running this position for a little while....|
|HAT did well out of the last downcycle, with eps peaking at 36p and the dividend at nearly 12p for the year 2012. There are signs the UK (and US) are starting to slow (and some recent mixed signals in Europe) - with general debt levels right across the globe much higher than in 2008. I think there might be scope to beat the previous numbers around 2021 if next year turns out to be the one where the next recession shows up. Whether or not, holding some HAT makes me feel a little less uncomfortable when considering if some recent weaker news is the end of the current 7-year bull market. The average bull maket is 6-7 years long.|
|Would expect healthy continuation of dividend profile|
|Kicking myself for not topping up at 235|
|Near 4-year high of £1053.|