Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[broadford bay] 05/8/2019 22:54

Experts.

...have brought more sorrow upon the Earth than Satan and all his works.

[mcfly02] 05/8/2019 22:47

Nobody admits to being anybody but yet are everybody 🤷‍a94;️

[bmo1] 05/8/2019 22:40

Names not David and I've never met the man ?

[bigdog5] 05/8/2019 22:28

Broadford, isn't it reasonable to believe that they are always "thinking of their bonus"?

Keep coming out with new plans to replace the old failed ones and it looks like they can sucker most into believing they are succeeding.

The fake reverend is the proof as he only ever refers back to the latest alterations of the plans. Long after the original ones disappear down the dunny.

Is that the reason why the Post office turned into the mess it did?

[broadford bay] 05/8/2019 20:51

mac,

I'm happy as I saw it coming...

[nestoframpers] 05/8/2019 20:38

BTW one reason Art 140 isn't getting signed off is that the disputed regions on the electoral roll will alter the politics in Baghdad and they don't want that. So tricky, not just about giving the Kurds a HCl and their 17%.

[nestoframpers] 05/8/2019 20:35

GKP will have spent £6 mill by tomorrow , £19 mill to go , then HCL and then the 1st offer will come in. Sold before Xmas ? maybe .

[mcfly02] 05/8/2019 20:29

Jamie,

£100 a point would of been nice 🤷‍a94;️

[habshan] 05/8/2019 20:12

"The state of the Dow (down 870 pts so far today), in conjunction with the China trade dispute, is of far greater importance to the company than the oil price"

Not so.

The dow and things like trade disputes are simply two of the many factors and variables which influence the oil price.

Our monthly payments don't go up and down with the dow.

They go up and down with the oil price.

To an oil company it's the oil price that's important.

And Jon and Sami will have given it a great deal of thought during their deliberations into "all the scenarios that we contemplate or conceive of as a possibility."

That's how they can state at a Capital Markets Day that we're fully funded to 110kbpd.

[urals] 05/8/2019 20:02

Agree Chinese . I'd forgotten that the WI is 80% ,just read the annual report that confirms it explicitly.Thank you. Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.

[broadford bay] 05/8/2019 19:57

Perhaps they used the same highly skilled "external consultants" as did Mark Carney for his Brexit forecasts?

Still, at least Carney and Osborne did point out some of the factors they had considered.

The state of the Dow (down 870 pts so far today), in conjunction with the China trade dispute, is of far greater importance to the company than the oil price - which is the only factor you chose to highlight.

Maybe they were thinking of their bonus...

[habshan] 05/8/2019 19:42

BroadfordBay - "Just pray the Dow turns"

Sami Zouari - "We are fully funded under all scenarios that we contemplate or conceive of as a possibility, to 110kbpd."

So you are of the opinion Broadford that when the Board of Directors sat around the table to talk about "all scenarios that we contemplate or conceive of as a possibility", they won't have thought about the oil price.

The oil price wouldn't have occured to them.

I see.

[urals] 05/8/2019 19:22

:) :) Black Rock JPMorgan UBS Goldman Sachs Morgan StanleyOwn most of this now You can understand whyCash at hand over $310m Further availability on existing notes $200mReceivables $60m. Cash headroom $500-570m , should see substantial 55-80m pre agreed off market buy in minimum pre or contemporaneous with sale.Numbers currently buying in market $6.8m so far trivial , obviously just there to stabilize ,peel+ cana in tandem.https://twitter.com/Paul47293202/status/1158357513429012482?s=19

[broadford bay] 05/8/2019 19:22

Just pray the Dow turns...

[urals] 05/8/2019 19:21

:) Black Rock JPMorgan UBS Goldman Sachs Morgan StanleyOwn most of this now You can understand whyCash at hand over $310m Further availability on existing notes $200mReceivables $60m. Cash headroom $500-570m , should see substantial 55-80m pre agreed off market buy in minimum pre or contemporaneous with sale.Numbers currently buying in market $6.8m so far trivial , obviously just there to stabilize ,peel+ cana in tandem.https://twitter.com/Paul47293202/status/1158357513429012482?s=19

[bigdog5] 05/8/2019 19:18

No takeaway Chinese today then, is there a problem chinese?

[bigdog5] 05/8/2019 19:16

I do find it strange that after 10 years of failed plans and predictions certain posters are still prepared to believe only what the company says. Naivety at it's very best. But they've always relied on suckers innit.

[urals] 05/8/2019 19:15

Black Rock JPMorgan UBS Goldman Sachs Morgan StanleyOwn most of this nowYou can understand whyCash at hand over $310m Further availability on existing notes $200mReceivables $60m. Cash headroom $500-570m , should see substantial 55-80m pre agreed off market buy in minimum pre or contemporaneous with sale.Numbers currently buying in market $6.8m so far trivial , obviously just there to stabilize ,peel+ cana in tandem.https://twitter.com/Paul47293202/status/1158357513429012482?s=19

[bigdog5] 05/8/2019 19:09

I note that the fake reverend's memory hasn't improved. He must have forgotten that all the company's hyped plans have failed which of course necessitates them being altered yet again.

Word from the City jungle drums suggests a new ton of hype could be a right ripper. But is very likely to go the same way as all the others n'est ce pas.

Not wise to be wasting funds on buybacks imho.

[habshan] 05/8/2019 19:08

This is what he said Broadford:-

"We are fully funded under all scenarios that we envisage, to 110kbpd."

Envisage - "contemplate or conceive of as a possibility."

So what he actually said was:-

We are fully funded under all scenarios that we contemplate or conceive of as a possibility, to 110kbpd.

I hope that's clear for you now Broadford.

I think that maybe investing in something like Oil & Gas field development isn't for you Broadford.

There are just far too many variables and unknowns for somebody of your disposition.

If you can find an investment where everything is cast in stone, where there are no variables, where everything is known before you start, and where there is no element of risk, then I suggest you invest there instead.

[bigdog5] 05/8/2019 18:56

"Leave it to those who actually have their fingers on the pulse and know what they're talking about".

fake reverend, so you won't be posting again.

[nestoframpers] 05/8/2019 18:54

I topped up recently , I am a do or die type.