||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Software & Computer Services
Real-Time news about Group Nbt (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|serratia: A good set of results so here are a few comments.The market tends to look forward a year and I find it useful to look at share prices on a multiple of the following years cash flow.Profit figures often do not show the whole truth so cash flow works for me.
Having said that NBT always have a nice clean set of figures.
In 2007 the share price had a high of 10* the 2008 cash flow and a low of 5.9*.In 2008 it was 9.3 and 6.2*.In 2009 it was 9.2 and 5.4*.The market seems to value the company in the range say 9 to 6* cash flow.
In order to look forward I have to estimate 2011 cash flow.As a first pass I took the growth rates of the various parts and just extended them to 2011 and came up with £11.25m cash flow.I haven't checked if any cash items drop out next year that's for the fine tuning.
On this basis the range for calender year 2010 would be low 262p high 394p.To estimate 2011 range I need 2012 cash flow and of course this is harder as I look that far forward.As the company is growing I looked back at the increase in cash flow in previous years.In 2009/10 it grew 2.2m,in 2010/11 my spread sheet would indicate 1.83m (a bit low ?),my estimate drops down as 2.15m for 2011/12.If I take growth as 2.4m for 2012/13 I get the following.
Calender year 2011 high 465p low 300p,2012 high 535p low 355p all based on the 9*.6* ratio.These figures would suggest 15 - 20% growth in the share price each year for the next two years.
Of course things can change but the management say sales are still going well and the new domain names should add further volume.
I'm happy to hold and would add if it fell back to 300p.
Feel happy to comment if I've missed anything.|
|serratia: Agreed Shuisky,
For my spread sheets I work off cash generated from operations.NBT's share price varies between 6 and 9 times the following years operational cash flow.The half year figures are in line with my target of £9.4m for this year.Taking a conservative rise to £10.7m for next year gives a price range high to low of 425p/280p.
If nothing changes I would see a drift up to 400p over the next year.I am fully invested here but would buy again at 280p.I don't expect to see the latter unless we have another market collapse.|
|serratia: I've been running some analysis following the last set of results.NBT shares have traded between 6 and 10 times the following years cash flow.This has held for the last 4 years.This gave a target price of 292p for the figures published October 30th 2009 ie Oct 08.Peak price for 2008 was 266p so pretty well up with events.
To get a figure for this years peak share price I have to estimate cash flow at the results to June 2010.My sales/EPS forward estimates luckily seem to be a mirror image of the broker estimates.Converting all this into share prices comes to 332p which is the present price.
On this basis the shares are now fully valued at 10* next years cash flow. Or is there more upside in next years cash generation?Possibly,next year domain names can end on any theme,brand or region eg .music .sport etc.Over the next 2 years there may be 20 to 30 new endings introduced.This would increase the number of domain names over the next 2 years from around 200m to around 300m.If as I expect NBT's customers will want to cover the new suffixes there's a 50% uplift in volume coming on stream.So NBT are either fully valued on an as is basis or there's more upside from 2010's suffix expansion.|
|masurenguy: Share price has slowly but gradually moved up by 13% over the past 6 weeks in spite of the resignation of co-founder Jonathan Robinson last month.|
|serratia: More for discussion.
Looking back at NBT in 2003 they had a M.Cap/EBITDA of 13.3.In 2004 it was 11.5 and 2005 9.4.At present it is 13 * my year end forcast and 10.7* my 2008 forcast.IF growth continues as I estimate,at 13* EBITDA we would have a share price of 420p by mid 2008.I would be happy with a 25% increase in the coming year.
Just another way of estimating future prices.|
|cravencottage: Looks like a few retail investors are getting on board before final results in a couple of weeks time.
The MD has already said NBT are >10% above market expectations so I fully expect broker upgrades @ results time.
2006 Eps is 9.8p ( pre-upgrade) So I fully expect NBT's share price to be re-rated accordingly.
|12345th: hyper, will look. what is amazing is how nbt share price reacted to such bullish news the other day, ie why it came straight back down after, rightly, going up. never seen that before, seems incredibly downbeat for a co. in such a niche sector and clearly doing so well. maybe top up time?|
|petemcg: Marked up and then down lately on small volume since the results. Investors Chronicle covered NBT today in their Smaller Company Results section (which meant just a couple of lines of comment along with the figures). They acknowledged the good results and reported the company's healthy £1.6m cash balance post-acquisition and added that current trading is positive. Nice to see NBT again presented in such an unambivalent, upbeat manner.
Bell Lawrie White & Co, covering broker, have updated their forecasts for future earnings, which can be seen at the following link:
They have actually increased forecast EPS for the current year to 8.3p (68% growth). For June '06 their forecast is 9.15p (10% growth). For me, this suggests the share price should move to about 85p in the short term, a price we almost touched last week a couple of days after the preliminary results were announced and the company was tipped (as reported previously on this BB by Don Carter.)|
|haystack: FBT have never had any chances of making money. The business model is flawed. It is nort a question of making it or not making it at all. It is about whether the shares are worth the price they are. NBT is at the moment and FBT is not, at least that is my opinion. FBT would have to make huge profits to justify their current share price let alone anything bigger and they have almost no turnover ad bever have had. FBT have a system that is non standard and seems to unwanted by the streaming media community. NBT has good revenues and is profitable and is showing every sign of being successful.|
|mrba5hir: As haystack keeps saying, just because a share rises doesnt mean its correct. Isnt that true haystack ?
The share price can rise and fall.... but as he says its where the share price "should" be that counts. And by looking at the fundamentals the price "should" be much much lower.|
Group Nbt share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange