Greene King Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 13/2/2017 11:57

Pubs pay VAT at 20% on food sales, on duty supermarket pay about 2 pence per pint of
beer, compared with pubs paying approx 15 pence.

[hybrasil] 13/2/2017 11:53

Is this not way overvalued at nearly £650k per unit?

The net assets per share are less than £2 and there are no barriers to entry to this business

[racg] 13/2/2017 11:36

Are pubs services?

[racg] 13/2/2017 11:35

It is true, the new economy gets away with murder in comparison to the ild world service sector.

[essentialinvestor] 13/2/2017 11:25

Supermarkets can sell alcohol below cost price, pubs and restaurants are
loaded down with taxes, can understand why Tim Martin gets so irate.

[racg] 13/2/2017 11:17

I suspect this will nit be as exciting as my dalliances into copper. Well, I certainly hope it isn't.

[racg] 13/2/2017 11:15

Mmm 2nd buy.

[bend1pa] 13/2/2017 10:30

Now hitting a 4 year low. I know they've got a lot of debt, but GNK has always survived well in worrying times and coped with that. Decided to dip my toe in today @653. Near enough 5% yield. I will put a lot more in should we see sub 600, provided there's no profit warning in store.

[jeffian] 13/2/2017 10:29

As you know, I am a perennial fan of the sector. My working life began around 1972 and I've seen more forecasts of the 'death of the pub' than most people have had hot dinners. GNK have been around for over 200 years and I'm not expecting them to disappear any time soon. Yes, there have been plenty of 'headwinds' - Government and legislative interference, taxes and duties, rising costs etc - but the pub simply evolves to suit the society it serves. Who in the 1970's/80's would have foreseen that pubs would become the first destination of choice for eating out?

Look at this -
.............2008..2009..2010..2011..2012..2013..2014..2015..2016
Adjusted eps.59.4..53.4..43.4..48.2..51.3..55.6..61.4..61.0..69.9
Dividend.....20.9..21.0..21.5..23.1..24.8..26.6..28.4..29.75.32.1

GNK are currently yielding the best part of 5% - you can't get that even on fixed rate bonds - with a track record of a well covered and growing dividend, even in the dark days post-2008 (unlike MARS which slashed its divi) and I have every expectation that will continue. They sit on a pile of real property assets. My circumstances are such that I am not looking for overnight gains; I need a regular income, a degree of security and the reasonable hope that my capital will grow over time. I have held GNK for years but I am a buyer of more at these levels as I have bonds maturing and cannot find a better return anywhere else.

[essentialinvestor] 13/2/2017 09:57

Ian, if you are around would be interested in your take on the sector
over the next couple of years?.

[essentialinvestor] 13/2/2017 09:43

Hi Phil, GNK appears in the firing line with a larger casual dining exposure.

Went for the MKS £20 Valentines meal deal offer, very nice.

The largest challenge looks how GNK navigate online home delivery
competition.

However capacity will be taken out of the sector, would expect pub closures to
accelerate again this year.

[philanderer] 13/2/2017 09:38

Morning EI , looks like an overhang still to clear .

[essentialinvestor] 13/2/2017 09:30

Had a very small amount 6.536

[philanderer] 13/2/2017 08:55

Going to be a bad one ... top FTSE 250 faller by a mile

edit:

13th feb JP Morgan overweight tp 810p cut from 830p

and from that Times front page today...


High street giants warn Hammond over business rates

High streets will lose some of their most popular pubs and restaurants because of hikes in business rates, Philip Hammond has been warned. Owners of high-profile chains including Pizza Express, Greene King pubs, Wagamama, All Bar One and Slug & Lettuce have written to the Chancellor to ask him to reconsider a plan to increase rates by up to 42% this year.

[philanderer] 13/2/2017 00:16

Sky News ‏@SkyNew23 minutes ago

THE TIMES FRONT PAGE: 'High street revolt over rates rise'

[racg] 12/2/2017 18:52

Have faith in the alcoholism of your average Brit.

[essentialinvestor] 12/2/2017 13:13

The longer term sector support is capacity will be stripped out by
constrained consumer spending, the weaker operators will bear the brunt of that.

You can already see evidence with RTN.

There are some structural as well as cyclical trends which cannot be
ignored- the profileration of online home delivery food options is unhelpful.
Supermarkets have considerably upped their game with £10 meal deal offers.
That will never replace the experience of eating/drinking out but it still impacts,
and in a rising cost environment for pubs.

[hiddendepths] 12/2/2017 12:50

philanderer - true, but a substantial UT volume at below the 1630 bid price reflects quite an overhang of selling.

Looking to buy in, pssibly tomorrow (Monday). They are clearly not going to cut the dividend, which looks highly supportive down here.

[fez77] 11/2/2017 13:46

Thanks phil - I'm still learning the game!

Have to say that despite uncertainties of future trading, it still seems like good value at current levels.

[philanderer] 10/2/2017 23:51

Greene King - Growth slows despite strong Christmas

[philanderer] 10/2/2017 19:15

Fez, that wasn`t a sale, it was the UT (uncrossing trade) the total executed volume and uncrossing price as a result of a SETS auction.

Happens every day after the close.

[fez77] 10/2/2017 19:01

Seems to be getting a good thrashing despite the Broker forecasts. Sales like this one today do not help:-

16:35 - 10/02
Sell 771010 676.50p £5,215,882.65

I'm well down at the moment but have added today and remain hopeful of a tick up soon.

[philanderer] 10/2/2017 17:47

Good plan racg :-)

[racg] 10/2/2017 16:35

I feel the lower we go, the safer it is, so am adding incrementally, shall hedge with mars also.

[joe say] 10/2/2017 14:42

You say no mention of margin but don't ignore the phrase

leaves us well placed to deliver another year of progress, value creation and returns for our shareholders.