Greene King Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 23/4/2013 13:35

All the brewers/pubco's are up today. It's hard to tell what, if any, effect Vince's 'Adjudicator' will have. The assumption seems to be that all current tied leases are 'unfair', but they were all freely entered into and the tenants who are coming up for lease renewals or rent review already have the protection of the Landlord & Tenant Acts and arbitration, so maybe it won't have much effect at all other than in a few marginal cases. How Vince came to the conclusion (talk about pre-judging the issue!) that there would be an adjustment of £100m from the pubco's in favour of the tenants, I don't know. What on earth is the Government doing meddling around in commercial relationships? Where will it end? Will Vince be looking at small shopkeepers next to see if their landlords and suppliers are treating them 'fairly'? Will he look at franchise relationships? What about supermarkets squeezing their suppliers? Big companies asking for 'retrospective discounts' before they'll settle invoices? C'mon, Vince, cut red tape? No, let's tie up the whole economy in the stuff!

[yf23_1] 23/4/2013 13:13

I'm a little confused here with the reaction to the fair deal RNS.
GNK is affected (over 500 pubs) and the share price is rising. So can we assume its because they will be better off selling their beer to a wider market, or are the proposals less than expected, or it doesn't affect GNK tie-ins so much ?

[noslien] 05/4/2013 12:24

Jeffian, no I didn't think you were being flippant. I agree the market is trending down, as are many of my holdings, but, these seem to be down quite a bit further.

Take the figures for 1 week and 1 month:

FTSE100 -1.03% and -0.73%
GNK -3.99% and -4.40%
MAR -5.16% and -4.28%

Now these shares have had a very good run, and I think they may have over shot a bit. That's all I can come up with. I don't see anything else that has changed radically either in terms of their market or factors affecting their operations. I like the look of GNK and if they come down further I will buy, although I never seem to do that well timing wise.

Regards
Noslien

[jeffian] 05/4/2013 10:49

Noslien,

You may have thought I was being flippant, but the point was a serious one. I have a fairly widely-spread portfolio and follow the threads of many different stocks on this board and in almost every case someone has posted the question over the past few days "Why the big drop?". Consider the possibility that it may not be stock-specific but a general sell-off for macro-economic reasons (there's certainly still a load of those to be scared as hell about!).





As for analysts' comments, it may well be that GNK is fully-valued at the moment but the reason about 'poor weather' made me laugh. GNK has been going for 213 years and counting; I doubt the investment case rests on a few weeks of unusual weather. If this cold spell breaks and we get a mini heatwave, watch out for Oriel's upgrade!

[noslien] 05/4/2013 10:28

Thanks Steve. I notice that Marston's is also down by about the same sort of % over the same period, so maybe the sector is seeing something of a realignment.

[stevemarkus] 05/4/2013 09:37

A broker (Oriel Securities) downgrade apparently due to poor weather and a full valuation. Happy to see a bit of a dip, as I have cash to find a home for.

Cheers,
Steve.

[jeffian] 04/4/2013 20:06

How about this? Just an idea!

FTSE-100-76.16 6344.12 FTSE-250 Index -204.00 13756.00FTSE All Share -40.85 3344.40

[noslien] 04/4/2013 13:21

Another step down, but not clear why the big drop. Anyone any ideas?

[noslien] 27/3/2013 15:23

Have they gone XD today? NO

[bostonborn] 27/3/2013 14:44

Have they gone XD today?? Hence the sharp drop in price. Thanks for any reply.

[skinny] 25/3/2013 09:45

N+1 Singer Buy 731.75 720.50 - 760.00 Initiates/Starts

[noslien] 07/2/2013 16:39

bend1, yes I agree with this. I have done the same thing. At this level I am happy to take profits. I bought at 4.70. Now need to find another one that will deliver a 50% return!

[bend1pa] 07/2/2013 15:47

Very reluctantly sold mine today for 698. Had a great run since I bought them for 410 in Nov 2011, but somehow feel GNK has gone high enough and doesn't offer good value any longer. The next ex div isn't until August, so hopefully these will fall sufficiently to justify buying again before then.

[hyden] 01/2/2013 13:45

Broker Upgrade. Target 750p.

[yf23_1] 01/2/2013 13:24

Why the rise today - short of stock ?

[gymfit] 20/1/2013 08:29

There are cases of imported beef from Zebu cattle, which have a distinctive hump on their neck, being imported from south America and sold in pubs as 'British'.
Meat from cross-breed cattle containing Zebu genes from Brazil is cheaper than British beef, however critics point out that it can also be much tougher.


Read more:

[wad collector] 16/1/2013 15:17

Not looking like dipping yet!

[losos] 15/1/2013 11:27

wad collector - "I don't trust the market not to drop its interpretation by a pound over the mext few months and have sat patiently on these for years.Hope to buy back if it happens."

Yes, you are right, I dipped my toe in just prior to ex-div date, would normally have taken a bigger bite but happy to take the divis as they come and top up when there's a dip in the market.

[hyden] 14/1/2013 07:18

Excellent statement imho. Good to read that margins are on the up as well as sales. Happy to continue holding.

[skinny] 14/1/2013 07:04

Greene King announces its Interim Management Statement for the 36 weeks to 06 January 2013.

· Retail like-for-like (LFL) sales up 3.7% and food LFL sales up 4.1%
· Average EBITDA per pub in Pub Partners up 4.2%
· Greene King IPA and Old Speckled Hen ahead of last year


Rooney Anand, chief executive, said: "Our strong momentum has been maintained over the last six weeks. We achieved record sales through Christmas and the New Year as our teams once again delivered excellent value, service and quality to our customers.

Pubs continue to play a vital role for customers, families and communities across the UK during the festive period, especially in this difficult financial environment. We once again achieved record Christmas bookings and strong like-for-like sales growth across Christmas and the New Year. We achieved record Christmas Day sales of £2.7m, up 6.8%, and during the whole of December, we sold 448,000 Christmas meals, another record for Greene King."

[jeffian] 11/1/2013 17:40

Fair enough. I think the markets have become far too complacent and there is still the capacity for a nasty shock (the US budget problem has only been deferred until March and the Euro is a mess which could blow up at any time). Never wrong to take a profit.

[wad collector] 11/1/2013 16:47

I agree it is a good business , but it was also a good business when the market valued it at 370p in 2010. The businesss has not changed much since then , but the market valuation has. I don't trust the market not to drop its interpretation by a pound over the mext few months and have sat patiently on these for years.Hope to buy back if it happens.

[losos] 11/1/2013 16:24

jeffian - "It'll be a steady grower with a good dividend stream"
That'll do for me too, the CEO always seems (To me at at least) to make a good impression in interviews etc. He has several times mentioned this 'affordable treat' idea, and when the vast majority of the population are seeing their disposable income dropping they are not going to splash out on new cars, caribbean cruises, or a mega pixal TV, but a meal out with the familly and a nice pint is still possibe.