Greene King Share Discussion Threads

[yf23_1] 26/6/2012 11:40

FOOD
The eating out market is a significant long-term growth opportunity for Greene King Retail. Our annualised food sales are over GBP300m in a fragmented, growing UK market worth around GBP40bn*.

2011/12 (24 weeks) Retail Pub Brewing Corporate Total
Partners & Brands
GBPm GBPm GBPm GBPm GBPm

External revenue 367.5 76.9 83.1 - 527.5
----------------------------- ------- -------- -------- --------- --------
Segment operating profit 70.7 34.7 16.3 (6.1) 115.6

[yf23_1] 25/6/2012 14:01

LONDON--Trading for pubs and restaurants across the U.K. improved in May, boosted by warm weather at the end of the month, a study released Wednesday showed.
The Coffer Peach Business Tracker reported that comparable sales in May rose 2.6% on the year, following a fall of 2% in April. Total sales, which include new openings, rose 6.5%.
The tracker monitors trends in the eating and drinking-out market by collecting monthly performance data from 24 companies, including Whitbread PLC (WTB.LN), Mitchells & Butlers PLC (MAB.LN), Spirit Pub Co. PLC (SPRT.LN) and Marston's PLC (MARS.LN).
Pubs and pub restaurants were the best performers, it said.

I think you might find that the food side of GNK is significant (eg Hungry Horse), if I remember correctly the brewing side only makes up 10% of profit.

[jeffian] 25/6/2012 13:29

Whatever it is, it won't have much to do with Whitbread who do coffee shops (Costa) and hotels (Premier Inns). It's a long time since WTB was a bellwether of the pub/brewery industry.

[yf23_1] 25/6/2012 12:31

What, no comments, is this just continued response to Whitbread's results or something else.

[wad collector] 01/5/2012 16:45

Moved to a 3 yr high. Shame I have held for 5 yrs!

2012 2013
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Panmure Gordon
30-04-12 HOLD 149.00 51.00 24.50 155.00 53.90 25.90
Shore Capital
27-04-12 HOLD 150.00 51.80 24.70 159.50 55.10 26.00
Peel Hunt
24-04-12 BUY 151.49 52.40 24.00 154.46 53.97 24.72
Numis Securities Ltd
23-04-12 ADD 152.00 52.70 24.30 157.80 55.50 25.60
Charles Stanley
20-04-12 ACCU 148.96 51.76 23.40 157.47 55.37 24.10

[barlick] 23/4/2012 17:26

A bad day to release quality results. On an up day this would have seen a healthy rise.

Spent the weekend in Burley (Hamps) & a large chunk of that was in 'The Queens Head' which was mobbed. Excellent pub with an incredible food trade, a few more like that & this share price will double!

Set up nicely for the summer events methinks!

[jeffian] 23/4/2012 08:25

Nice Trading Update today. This co may never set the world alight but knuckling down to good steady forward progress on sales, profits and dividends, all backed by a sound asset base, tick all the boxes for 'value' investors IMHO.

[apad] 21/4/2012 07:55

FSTA purchase: home counties, one in London.
apad

[apad] 21/4/2012 07:39

Pretty good trend over the last few months.
Been musing on FSTA lately. Both should do good in the madness that is the Olypmics. GNK took over Capital Pub, and FSTA also took over some London pubs (note to self, check details). The current trend favours GNK though.
4.5% yield compensates for earnings being measured in pound coins perhaps.
My issue in choosing is "where will they be in ten years"? Perhaps the tightly held FSTA will be broken up - now that would trigger a feeding frenzy!
Anyone suggest another contender in this sector?
apad

[barlick] 03/3/2012 12:25

Thank you both for your full & intelligent posts.

Barlick

[apad] 02/3/2012 21:13

Comprehensively put jeffian.
B....
If you want an interesting comparison check out FSTA over different time scales. They have also bought some new pubs recently and are much more conservatively run than Greene King :-)
Also check out previous posts.
GNK are 3% of my portfolio, which is large(ish) by my standards.
MARS and YNGA are the other interesting competitors.
apad

[jeffian] 02/3/2012 19:32

Barlick,
Although they both have pubs, it is important to understand that GNK and MAB are different animals. MAB is a Pub Retailer; as per any other retailer, it occupies premises, buys its stock wholesale and sells retail via its own directly-employed staff. JDW is the same.

GNK (like MARS) is a 'vertically-integrated brewery company' - that is, it is a manufacturer (it brews its own beer), a distributor (it has its own logistics division including transport and warehousing), it wholesales its product to the free trade (which may include MAB and JDW, for example) and it also has its own pub estate which is divided into directly Managed Houses (same set-up as MAB/JDW - GNK take the full retail margin) and a large Tenanted Estate (where they simply let the pub to a tenant who runs the business autonomously, pays rent to GNK and is required to buy its beers - i.e. they get rent and the wholesale margin, but the tenant makes the retail profit).

The point is that their income streams come from different sources so you won't get like-for-like growth. I like GNK because that range of businesses spreads the risk. It tends to produce steady and predictable growth without the peaks and troughs experienced by the retailers who are directly and immediately affected by any changes in their cost base on the one hand, or the spending patterns of their customers on the other. It's not going to set the world on fire but if you like the security of real assets and a steadily rising profit and dividend stream, at least you'll sleep at night!

[barlick] 02/3/2012 18:07

APAD

Got to agree with you, I think I will take a punt here. Looking also @ Mitchells but fancy this more. Charts complicated by rights issues though.

[apad] 02/3/2012 11:22

B..
They bought some distressed sale pubs and Capital Pubs last year so these should be showing benefit in 2012, particularly Cap Pubs.
PER is 9 and Price/Cash Flow is 7. Safe yield just under 5%.
Not looking expensive at the moment.
apad

[yf23_1] 01/3/2012 23:25

chart looking good, RSI at a low and possible accumulation in the 500-510 area.

The last time it got this low was in early Oct and it bounced significantly.

[barlick] 01/3/2012 18:19

Thinking that with the Jubilee & Olympics these might be a growth stock this year. Any thoughts?

[wad collector] 24/2/2012 13:31

I only sip Bolly myself ; have to steal it to drink it.
I like the look of the chart -a creeping sustained rise .Sit on hands time I think.

[apad] 14/2/2012 09:32

A pal reported London pubs approaching £4 a pint. I go to the pub less now because of prices.
apad

[apad] 09/2/2012 16:37

Agreed, jeff.
I bought GNK after the last rights and bought more with my Capital Pubs takeover cash.
I am anticipating that the London pubs acquired will boost earnings in such a way that will benefit shareholders.
Noticed that FSTA bought some London pubs the other day and I am putting them on watch.
apad

[jeffian] 09/2/2012 14:26

FSTA a different kettle of fish altogether - family-controlled, with low borrowings and a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of under 2x (cf 5-8x for the others). MARS, GNK and PUB have all had discounted and dilutive Rights Issues (which upset some investors). ETI hasn't, but consequently remains the most indebted.

[apad] 09/2/2012 09:31

jeff
Interesting that FSTA is back to the peak whereas GNK has a factor of 5 to go.
Mabe rights issue complications here, I am going from Yahoo data.
apad

[jeffian] 08/2/2012 23:31

Same as for the other pubco's I expect - relatively high debt with 'credit crunch' looming and fears about the impact of recession on revenues?

[apad] 08/2/2012 20:56

wad....
What was the driver for the 2007 fall from grace?
apad