Greene King Share Discussion Threads

[hyden] 06/9/2011 15:21

You will likey have such an opportunity before the month is out. All this bickering and falling out over Greece will surely lead to misery and this will in turn create opportunity for the patient and the brave. :-)

[ferrism] 06/9/2011 13:35

Thanks for that, Hyden. Interesting point about the scale of Pub Partners. I think you have convincingly allayed my fears so I can go back to buying on the dips!

[hyden] 06/9/2011 12:42

Interesting point you raise there, ferrism. And as you say the figures do indeed suggest that LFL sales in Pub Partners are down slightly against tough comparitives last year (World Cup). New pubs always raise keen interest and thus in the early days will likely attract an increased following but this will wane as the novelty wears off. That's my take anyhow, so nothing to worry about.

I would also add that Pub Partners accounts for just 16% of revenue (per May '11 finals) whereas Retail accounts for 68% and Brewing the final 16%. On both these fronts the figures are much more encouraging:

"Like-for-like (LFL) sales in Greene King Retail, our largest and fastest growing division, up 2.6% after 18 weeks, with 4.3% LFL growth in the last ten weeks."

"Our focus on food continues to deliver strong results with LFL sales up 4.2% after 18 weeks and 4.7% growth in the last ten weeks."

"In Brewing and Brands, core brand own-brewed volume is up 1.8%, with 5.0% growth in the last ten weeks, compared to the UK ale market down 8.0% in the last quarter."

So, all in all, GNK are performing very well in spite of market conditions and, I would suggest, comfortably ahead of many of their peers. A good reason to invest when the opportunity arises?

[ferrism] 06/9/2011 10:38

GNK interim statement generally looks good but I've been considering the following ...

"After 16 weeks, average EBITDA per pub in Pub Partners was up 2.4% with LFL EBITDA down 1.0%. LFL EBITDA in our core estate is ahead of last year."

The fact that LFL EBITDA declined but average EBITDA increased suggests that only the new additions to the chain are performing well. Depending on the scale of Pub Partners vs the core estate this could be a worrying sign. Anyone else any thoughts on this?
Apologies for my "glass half empty" approach ... pun intended!

[hyden] 06/9/2011 08:37

And this from another of my holdings:

"Whitbread traded strongly in the second quarter with total sales growth of 12.9%, making us one of the fastest growing consumer facing companies in the FTSE100. This growth, combined with a strong like for like sales increase of 4.8%, underscores our shareholder value creation and exciting future growth potential."

(Whitbread brands are Premier Inn, Beefeater, Brewers Fayre, Table Table, Taybarns and Costa.)

Not sure where you got your information from DJ but certainly doubts must be creeping in now?

[hyden] 06/9/2011 08:22

Very encouraging TS and in line with yesterday's broker note. Will continue to hold and add on further weakness.

[jeffian] 05/9/2011 23:34

#502,

I haven't!

[hyden] 05/9/2011 20:27

Not sure Panmure Gordon agree with you DJ:

Greene King (GNK) kept its "buy" rating from Panmure Gordon, with a 540p target price, ahead of tomorrow's interim management statement. The broker notes that at the end of July the moving quarterly like-for-like sales growth was around 1.5%, and expects this trend to have continues, giving some adjustment for the impact of the riots in August. Shares in Greene King dropped 12.8p to 431.5p.

[dugganjoe] 05/9/2011 19:40

recession. people have stopped drinking beer

[dugganjoe] 05/9/2011 08:24

can see this getting shot to shreds

[dugganjoe] 01/9/2011 12:03

can see a profit warning in ths sector as similar to restaurants

[hyden] 10/8/2011 08:45

XD today then. Explains the only Red stock in my portfolio today. Effectively 1% up at current prices then. :-)

[dugganjoe] 10/8/2011 08:34

Dividend
As a result of the company's strong earnings growth and cash generation, the board is able to recommend a final dividend payment of 16.8p per share. This will take the total dividend payment for the year to 23.1p per share, up 7.4% on last year. The final dividend is expected to be paid on 12 September 2011 to those shareholders on the register at the close of business on 12 August 2011.

[ferrism] 19/7/2011 10:01

Looked at these many times based on yield and decent management. Now they've made a bid for CPUB, a brilliantly run outfit, which I own.....



So I expect to channel the cash into these when it arrives.
Another sign of a good business, in my opinion, is a quiet bulletin board so I'll shut up now!

[wad collector] 08/7/2011 20:05

Tipped in The Times last week at 487p.

Independant was more of a Hold;

Date: Friday 01 Jul 2011

While Greene King's retail estate of 915 pubs remains the driver thanks to sizzling food sales, its brewing business and 2,400 tenanted pubs are also outpacing rivals. Greene King's skill at increasing sales while mitigating cost rises has kept the cash flowing, allowing it to lift the divdend for the year by 7.4% – good going in a tough market. The shares, off 30.6p at 487.4p, are trading on a forward multiple of about 9.5. Buy, says the Times.

Greene King's net debt of £1.4bn makes the Independent a little queasy but fixed charges such as interest payments and rent are 2.6 times covered. The company's food offering is performing strongly and its expansion strategy is aggressive and ought to help it to continue to grab market share. Plus, the valuation, at about 10 times full year earnings, is undemanding with a forecast yield of 5 per cent. Hold, the newspaper says.

[jeffian] 30/6/2011 18:53

Phhh! Bit of a harsh reaction to a very respectable set of results. I assume the markdown was in response to the cautious outlook statement but in my experience (over many recessions from early 1970's onwards) spending in pubs is far more resilient than analysts believe.

[libertine] 30/6/2011 10:02

FLASH: Numis reiterates add Greene King, target price cut from 560p to 550p

[druinsky] 05/6/2011 09:40

wall street cracking

should have sold in may

[wad collector] 10/5/2011 10:36

Flurry of broker guesses as we now finally touch £5 again.

2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Panmure Gordon
05-05-11 BUY 137.00 47.00 23.60 145.00 49.60 24.90
Shore Capital
29-04-11 HOLD 140.00 48.10 23.00 149.00 51.20 24.60
Peel Hunt
28-04-11 BUY 123.00 43.17 21.50 138.34 47.22 22.58
Evolution Securities Ltd
27-04-11 ADD 136.30 46.70 144.10 49.40
Numis Securities Ltd
27-04-11 ADD 140.00 48.00 22.70 149.20 51.20 23.80

[angelika] 08/5/2011 09:35

We appear to be attempting to break out of a trading range that has held resistance at 490p since September 2009. Let's see where we go from here; my feeling is that if the breakout holds we may be around 550p within the next two months.