Greene King Share Discussion Threads

[timbo003] 20/11/2010 03:19

Good idea, keep VAT at 20% (from Jan 2011) for Supermarket and off licence sales and reduce it to 12% for pub sales, whilst raising the duty on all beer so pub beer prices remain the same and supermarket beer becomes more expensive



net effect:

* The government raises a bit more tax to tackle the deficit
* It makes getting tanked up on booze before going to the pub more expensive (less drunks in town centres possibly?)
* Tramps will have to pay more for their special brew, so it will encourage them to drink less.
* Responsible drinkers will drink less at home and more in pubs.

Go for it!

[timbo003] 19/11/2010 07:47

Reassuring results from Fullers this morning may give the likes of MARS and GNK a lift today

[timbo003] 19/11/2010 07:47

Reassuring results from Fullers this morning may give the likes of MARS and GNK a lift today

[devymaster] 15/11/2010 08:22

Something stirring at Greene King - up almost 10% in the last 10 days and up 22p this morning. Results not due until early December. Someone looking to takeout another smaller performing company?

Devymaster

[kdixon148] 22/10/2010 17:01

No thoughts on the Pennant flag.

I am going to do my best to improve turnover tonight though in my own little way.

[bogotatrader] 21/10/2010 21:40

Am not a chartist but looks like a pennant/flag is being formed right now and the apex will be reached in a week or two from where the share price will move sharply either up or down....anyone have any thoughts on this?

[kdixon148] 21/10/2010 15:57

Joined the club with a small buy toady

[timbo003] 12/9/2010 17:22

Bodes well

[wad collector] 09/9/2010 13:59

Yesterdays Independent;

Pub retailer and brewer, Greene King, posted its results yesterday, showing a rise of 8.6% in the like-for-like food sales during the 18 weeks to September. With sales of ale falling throughout the market by 8%, Greene King's performance was better than its competitors. With a number of setbacks expected in the future, in terms of rise in VAT, and austerity cuts, the company has remained positive of a larger market share in the coming year. But for now, its shares are a hold.

[essentialinvestor] 07/9/2010 17:29

To be honest jeffian, I am not even particularly a Pub person.

I think most larger sold in the UK is poor.
Was lucky enough to work with someone in my early 20's
who introduced me to Real Ale - it was a revelation.

I am 41 now and a Full Time trader, so happy days.
Although it was a lot of hard work getting here.

Your call on Luminar was a great one,
because you saw the flaws in the model.
At the time, very few did - so credit where it is due.

I really like JDW and I will buy there at some stage,
so I keep an eye on the Sector.

I am cautious on the Market currently, only holding
WGB and STAF.

Unless I see outstanding value, this is a watch
and wait time for me.

[jeffian] 07/9/2010 16:30

EI,
Thanks for those kind words but I'm embarrassed by the praise and certainly have no claim to be an "expert" (how could I, having held ETI from 760 all the way down to 39p?!!) as bb compadre LBO would certainly agree after we crossed swords on the ULG/PBR threads -
"(ps I see your trying to insinuate above that you believe you have an indepth knowledge of the pub/bar/lesiure sector.. (Are you an aggrieved bartender by any chance?)"
LOL! and, yes, it did go bust!
I used to work in the industry as a Director of a regional/family brewery group and remain interested in the sector, that's all, but retired many years ago so probably a bit out of touch now.
FSTA are effectively family-controlled, with scions of all three (well, 2 at least - Fullers and Turners) founding families still working in the business and substantial family shareholdings. High rating probably reflects tightly held shares and lack of liquidity. Youngs used to be the same.

[apad] 07/9/2010 12:25

Thanks guys,
I do like low debt in a company (GNK needs to come down a bit), high director shareholdings (of GNK, must check FSTA) and brands.
Doing well out of Punch is an excellent plus point.
Loch Fyne looks to be a good brand for post recession.
I'll put FSTA on my watch list.

[essentialinvestor] 07/9/2010 12:05

APAD

jeffian is the expert on this Sector, and saved me ££££ with his
views on Luminar, so I would defer to his views every time.

I do not hold Fullers, and unfortunately due to medical reasons can rarely
drink these days, but Fullers Ales are just exceptional.

To put the Fullers rating into context, I think you need to account for their
low debt in comparison to most of the Sector.

[jeffian] 07/9/2010 12:00

I would say FSTA compares in every way - 'integrated' regional brewer (that is, it produces, wholesales, distributes and retails its own products through an estate of Managed and tenanted pubs and to the Free Trade) and, like GNK, is seeking to turn its 'local' beers into quasi-national brands. It may not have bought a restaurant chain like GNK (jury still out on the wisdom of that IMHO) but it has certainly bought plenty of top-quality pubs recently by cherry-picking the Punch estate among others.

[apad] 07/9/2010 09:55

Essential...
GNK bought new pubs and the Loch Fyne chain. Partly through rights issue.
Hence potential growth post recession/unemployment.
How does FSTA compare?
I notice that GNK has been much mor volatile over the last 6 months.
BTW - Pride's not good:-)

[apad] 07/9/2010 09:46

Statement will not affect the market. I am pleased that it reinforces the known knowns. Looking to buy more at less than £4

[essentialinvestor] 07/9/2010 09:44

Cant beat Fullers for Real Ales imv, and their bottled 1845 is a masterpiece.
No wonder their shares are so highly rated, low debt as well.

[jeffian] 07/9/2010 09:37

I'm surprised there hasn't been a better reaction in the sector generally. After the dire predictions for spending in pubs, the like-for-like sales in the Managed estate are pretty impressive, I would have said, and even the struggling Tenanted estate has stabilised which should be a positive indicator for the pubco's. Brewing is struggling, but we know that; 'specialist' brewers such as GNK and MARS simply have to manage the decline by seizing a larger share of a shrinking market which they can do with their distinctive ales (it's the lager boys with their indistinguishable fizzy drinks who'll bear the brunt of volume losses).

[timbo003] 07/9/2010 07:15

A very reassuring interim management statement out this morning.

I predict an "up" day for the shares today.

[apad] 23/8/2010 09:46

Mr. Market is lusting after foreign earnings, so GNK is small beer.
Buy at less than £4 is not a bad mantra unless unemployment goes through the roof. August, no hurry I guess.

[jeffian] 22/8/2010 23:54

I don't see it either, glenowen. Just posted this on the MARS thread.



jeffian - 22 Aug'10 - 23:49 - 735 of 735 edit


I'm sorry to rain on anyone's parade (again!) but why would a SAB Miller/Fosters tie-up be good for MARS/GNK? Rather the opposite, probably. As brewers, MARS/GNK operate in the niche market which is UK 'real ale'. Most people don't actually drink it; the majority of drinkers slosh back the tasteless fizz known as 'lager' (the stuff brewed by SAB Miller and Fosters) which is so indistinguishable and over-produced that pub-owners (including MARS/GNK but much more so with ETI/PUB who don't produce any beer of their own) were able to negotiate vast discounts by buying in bulk and passing on to their tenants at 'RRP'. Who ever knew whether they were drinking Fosters/Castlemaine/Carling anyway? The Holy Grail for lager producers has been to try to produce a 'must-have' brand but also to reduce the massive over-supply in the market so the bulk-purchasers of their products have less alternative brands to beat them down with. If one brewer can control both strong brands and limit the supply, they will be in a stronger position to dictate price. A successful SAB Miller/Fosters merger would squeeze margins on over 50% of MARS/GNK beer volumes through their estates. Why would that be a Good Thing?!

[glenowen] 22/8/2010 23:38

Don't really see it myself. I doubt that rumours of one global brewer bidding for another will impact on two relatively small UK brewers.

As an aside, GNK is now looking extremely good value at this level.

[timbo003] 22/8/2010 15:04

This might liven things up (share price wise) for Marstons and Green King next week:

[devymaster] 09/7/2010 11:48

Most of Shepherd Neame near me are small tenancies. Only biggish major is a Table Table, part of the Whitbread Group. Only food major here is a small Pizza Hut takeaway. Town with a population of some 70 000 on the coast. Do have the ubiquitous Costa and Starbucks though.

Devy

[glenowen] 08/7/2010 22:27

Devy, aren't you well served by Shepherd Neame in Kent? Thought they had some decent pubs. Wouldn't mind a few Fullers/Sheps/Youngs outlets up North. Get a bit tired with the ubiquitous GK pubs up here, although I presume my custom is good for my GNK shares.