|Granby Oil & Gas
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Granby Oil (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|mjcrockett: etc, Re IGP - I agree an interesting company. However, the share price is quite high. The market cap is four times last year's turnover. IGP gets a mention in this month's Aimzine - free to register at http://www.aimzine.co.uk. The IGP piece is in the article on Directors buying shares.
|normannumpty: Consolidation it is then.
At a discount to the share price upto the 25th of February, less than a month ago....Chelsea was right, a firesale.
I see Management agreed to sell shares to Silverstone even if a higher offer comes in, a true sign that they saw the light at the end of the tunnel, and realised it was a train.
Can the last person on this Board please switch the lights out.
|deswalker: Just heard back from the company.
- moved over to NPV10 instead of NPV5 because that is industry convention. Financing terms are closer to NPV5 though.
- happy to take on the extra percentage as the numbers made sense.
- still intending to farm Anglesey down further prior to drilling.
- frustrated with share price.
|rapier686: The question was specifically asked and the response was "of course it's after tax, or it wouldn't be an net present value". And it's also after the £3.5m overrun.
However as you say it's at a low discount rate and calculated at the forward gas curve rather than any lower figure. It's certainly not the kind of figure you'd expect completely reflected in the share price. And it was pre discovering the lower pressure.
"What does everyone else have ?"
An unhealthy reliance on other people's calculations :-)
Well I think it's apparent that those 4 suffice to justify the share price and the prospects, give plenty of upside - some quite large and carried through drilling. Truth time coming up on 5 of them over the next year. Detailed calculation is not required.
Cash needs keeping an eye on but there's plenty for now and Globe is free carried though the first well.|
|deswalker: Unlike ELP there's nothing in the GOIL price for Guinea. Cash plus the three development projects easily covers the mkt cap. Nonetheless it will get hit hard if they find dust but I shall be looking for the bottom to add more. If they find oil however then it is very happy days indeed.
I'm not surprised at the weakness in ELP relative to GOIL. I switched out of ASX:EXR into more GOIL a couple of months back. The valuation difference was too great (and still is). ELP have made some progress with their Leopard farmout (although they were careful not to disclose the terms) but GOIL is a much better outfit all round at a cheaper price. IMO they'll find their company-maker in due course. Just hoping that it's this week :-)
Good to see the rig contract signed for Tristan NW and all on schedule. A new insti has joined the fray, yet the share price slips. Both of those were positive and the share price slips, just an example of the weak market at present. Just makes us that bit stronger of an accumulate. £27.7m market cap and Guinea next month, cheap as chips when you take into account the £13.6m in the bank and Tristan and Galoc. Monkwell could also be worth a few quid eventually too.
|gazza5: Evening Standard (Londons Paper) mentioned GOIL last night, last paragraph of whats happening in the marketplace. Very good couple of paragraphs which said brokers anticipate the news should add 30p to share price. Now wether that is 30p on top of what we have I dont know!
Good to be in the news that everyone buys down here.|
|bomfin: It should take us near £1.40 if Nido's independent reserve report is accepted.
If Nido's own view on reserves (40 million barrels) in the Galoc field are accepted then Granby are worth at least double present share price.
|kim_clay: IMHO most experinced oil industry insiders knew that the chance of success was pretty low, because:
1: There were faults at the west end of the structure and this almost certainly would breach the trap top seal integrity. This has been known for a long time.
2: A well drilled to the west a number of years ago had heavy oil and gas in a younger reservoir on the same fairway, how did it get there other than by passing through or over the Marquis structure?
A number of Granby's other prospects are, on the whole, on the margins of the basin, and generally will suffer from more difficult oil migration pathways to the structures. Whilst drilling should be easy as they are all generally shallow, they need to find someone with a rig, there are not many available at the moment and the rates are at least double, often treble what they were last year. Not impossible to attract a farminee, but it will be expensive and as such they may not get the promote terms they would like. They must commit to a well on each of the 5 licences within ~12 months otherwise as promote licences they will expire in sept/oct next year. They need to find an accredited operator to drill them a well, or alternatively they become an accredited operator for drilling their own wells, or they pay their own share of the costs. The latter 'fall back option" will be expensive and require their coventurers to do the same. With even cheap finder wells now costing $5 - 8mm each they would need to fund 5 wells at 33%-65% equity levels. Do the maths. Farm outs or equity reductions would seem to be the only viable solution to access all the quoted risked reserve volumes in their prospects.
One of the current issues is that there are a lot of 'Promote licencees' looking to farm out at the moment. See the DTI website for all the promote licencees awarded blocks in the 22nd Round at http://www.og.dti.gov.uk/upstream/licensing/22_12_rnds/N0000GE8.doc : They all have the same time squeeze and all need to commit to a well within 12 months. This means only the best prospects will find a farminee. Many if not most of them will simply not attract a partner or funding, there are simply too many promoters chasing too few companies with money to drill and a rig to do it. This will simply be exacerbated by the record number of 23rd round promoters coming into the marketplace later this year.
We would need to see Granby get a few of their prospects farmed out, get more acreage in the 23rd Round and seal the Phillipines deal before their share price will recover to anything materially north of the issue price. I think we will see 60p or less before we see £1 again. These will keep drifting down as long as ther is no newsflow to sustain interest in the stock. Remember the 47p in "hard assets" (i.e the new shareholders money)is being eaten away at £500k or more every 6 months, just to keep the lights on and the salaries paid, oh yes and then there's the directors option awards coming up.|
|oracleuk: From the times online.
Oil's booming price has done for the UK oil and gas sector what soaring metal prices have done for London-listed miners. Investors have flocked to companies that vow to seek substantial assets, or those with a solid portfolio of producing assets that, at current oil prices, should produce lots of free cash. The high prices have also attracted opportunists to list oil investment vehicles, cashing in on generally upbeat market sentiment. Al Stanton, Bridgewell Securities analyst, says share prices of UK small and mid-tier oil companies are up a fifth year on year, but that the performance is increasingly mixed. In his view, it is a company's management of underlying assets, rather than the oil price, that has the most material impact on its share price. In that context, a few companies stand out: Paladin and Dana Petroleum have strong-performing production assets. Cairn's finds in India continue to excite, and Premier will hope to issue more positive drilling news this year, as well as cash in on higher gas prices. At the market's smaller end, investment becomes more selective, but there is scope for rewards. Gulf Keystone is in Algeria, but only future drilling will confirm its potential. Granby Oil & Gas joined AIM only this month, but its shares are already up more than half. Granby is to give results of its first well drilled in the North Sea on Monday. A positive result will no doubt further fuel Granby shares. A dry well, however, will not go unnoticed.
'Granby Oil & Gas joined AIM only this month, but its shares are already up more than half. Granby is to give results of its first well drilled in the North Sea on Monday. A positive result will no doubt further fuel Granby shares. A dry well, however, will not go unnoticed.'
Granby Oil & Gas share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange