Granby Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[bomfin] 17/12/2007 12:58

Will have a look at GED Des.

Also agree that there is a lot of junk out there. Need to be selective! If gas prices hold or they can hedge near current futures mark then Granby will look very cheap on first Tristan production.

My understanding is that Tristan development well is being drilled by Ensco 100 rig and DNX have it next to drill Scolty. Until recently Dana were suggesting they would have the rig as early as mid December.

All IMHO DYOR

[deswalker] 17/12/2007 11:29

bomfin,

Obviously I agree and hold a lot of shares to prove it. My second choice from the small cap stable is GED. Many of the rest look like junk to me.

Des

[bomfin] 17/12/2007 09:00

Long term I've got this as the most prospective small cap I'm following. Short term depends on drilling result. Another rig slot announced this morning.

[dreggspicker] 16/12/2007 18:49

Could well be a duster at Agnes 1 now they are tweaking the web site, ready for an announcement tomorrow.

[lowersharpnose] 16/12/2007 18:39

Thanks Des.

rgs
lsn

[deswalker] 16/12/2007 18:01

Well somebody's in the office today. Galoc is slowly being erased from the website and a new marketing presentation has appeared ...



A few things I have noted ...

Page 10. At the current gas fwd curve the post finance NPV(5) of GOIL's net interest in Tristan is £10.1 mill or 28p per share. Perhaps 5% is a bit on the low side for the discount factor but I'm happy with the number which equates to $8.3 per boe fully financed in the ground. I had been using $6 but now I'll up it to $7.5 to take into account the low discount rate. At $7.5 we get 25p per share for Tristan and 42p per share in Cash. Total = 67p with everything else in for free.

Page 13 gives the most detail I've seen on Monkwell. Note the "Significant Upside Potential" comment.

Pages 16 - 18 gives some new Poland info and maps. Details of the discoveries in block 106 and news that a gas pipeline passes through this block.

Pages 21 & 22. News that (following seismic IMO) the major prospects in 9/22 & 23c are now Globe and Roebuck and not Seahorse as had previously been indicated. It looks like Globe is scheduled for drilling in April (most likely with the Transocean Prospect already secured). My old info has this prospect at 29mmbls gross P50 with a 22% CoS. However I'm sure this will have changed post seismic.

Page 22. Anglesey looks pencilled in for June and Monkwell for July. Finally we have the new "Fat Cat" prospect which is almost certainly the shared prospect with PetroCan in 13/25 which had seismic shot over it recently. Finally, by comparing with the Sep presentation it looks like recent seismic over Dove and Skylark prospects in 16/11a has not proved successful as these have now been trumped in the pecking order by the Oakleigh prospect in 16/3f. It looks like this may just get drilled in Q308.

All good stuff IMO. If anyone else spots anything of interest then please post it here.

Fingers crossed for this week.

Des

[dreggspicker] 16/12/2007 14:09

Thanks Des, I said 4.3 mbls when it should be bcf, thanks for correcting me.
Doesn't sound too good but thanks for the snoop. Lets hope your fears do not come true.
dreggs

[deswalker] 16/12/2007 13:06

dreggs,

4.3 bcf = 720,000 barrels of oil equivalent on the usual conversion ratio. It ain't worth that much and nowhere near as important as finding oil at Kerloch. Remember that current gas prices are the same as $60 dollar oil using the above conversion ratio so oil is much more valuable than gas.

I was on site at Burton Agnes yesterday. Was in the area and so decided to do a little snooping. The guy I spoke to didn't seem to be too close to things - he was just one of the rig crew but he did say a couple of things that weren't what I was expecting at day 30. Namely, they are already down to 2000 metres and are going deeper as the target is proving to be deeper than expected (not usually good news). To his knowledge they'd found nothing so far but he seemed to think that yesterday would be THE day one way or the other.

They were drilling ahead at about 11am when I was speaking to him but things had stopped by 3pm when I went back. Whether that was a temporary thing during the half hour I was there or not I don't know.

I left feeling less optimistic about the outcome but I stress that the rig guy wasn't close to the logging or decision making.

I'm expecting an RNS by Wednesday (maybe even tomorrow) and I'm not optimistic. Fortunately it's in the price for less than zero but the market won't be quite so lenient I suspect. When risked at 20% I value the well at 6p unrisked and 1.2p risked.

Here's hoping I'm totally wrong.

Des

[dreggspicker] 16/12/2007 11:28

Should have news on Burton Agnes 1 in about 10 days time, lets hope Santa gives us a nice present this time;
We deserve it! Please!
Any way, as we all know its the geology that counts boo!
If we do hit gas, what is the current value of our share of 4.3 mbls of gas when on land, any one know?

Regards,dreggs

[lowersharpnose] 05/12/2007 07:35

Yes, it is Good, a hole to be poked into one of these prospects gratis.

Plenty of newsflow from Granby at the moment.

rgds
lowerSharpnose

[deswalker] 05/12/2007 07:18

And yet more good news. Farmed out 9/22 & 23c. Fully funded well in mid 2008. GOIL retain 25%.

[deswalker] 04/12/2007 10:24

So it's a 1 for 1 farm in plus a success based payment. Nice terms IMO and very much in line with Dana's increased focus elsewhere.

Dana's Scolty well is one to watch in relation to Monkwell. Due to spud early next year. If both are successful then a joint development could well be on the cards IMO.

[deswalker] 04/12/2007 10:10

Excellent RNS again. Monkwell is now firmly on the radar.

[deswalker] 30/11/2007 10:15

Galoc sale now unconditional with receipt of payment on 14th Dec as expected.

At least three more wells in 2008 in addition to the three currently drilling. They also talk of acquiring more appraisal and development opps in N Sea, onshore Europe and other areas of interest. Morocco would be my guess.

Not much mention of drilling all the N Sea explo prospects in the near future. They're clearly focused on building a long term business with the occasional big explo well thrown in now and again following farmouts. Who can blame them with oil at $95.

I'm surprised CS decided to topslice following recent developments.

[lowersharpnose] 30/11/2007 10:07

Galoc sale unconditional



Granby Oil and Gas plc, the oil and gas exploration and production company with interests in the UK North Sea and onshore Europe, is pleased to announce that the sale of its 9.14% indirect interest in the Galoc oil field, offshore Philippines, to Otto Energy Ltd. is now wholly unconditional following approval of the purchase by Otto's shareholders earlier today. Completion, including receipt of payment, is expected to be on 14 December 2007.

Granby announced on 29 October the sale of its 9.14% indirect interest in the Galoc oil field, offshore Philippines, to Otto Energy Ltd. The total cash consideration payable to Granby is USD $25.5 million, comprising US$16.66 million payable at Completion, repayment of existing Shareholder Loan amounts to GPC of approximately US$2.59 million, and repayment of the
approximately US$6.3 million deposit held in escrow with Banca Intesa as security for the project financing. In addition, Otto will issue to Granby one million shares in Otto (to be held in escrow for a period of 12 months) and four million options at an exercise price of 34 cents per share (to be held in escrow for a period of 12 months) and which lapse if not exercised within 24 months from their issue.

At the completion of the transaction Granby is expected to have approximately £15 million of cash available to fund further growth of the business.

David Grassick, Managing Director of Granby Oil and Gas, said:

"The successful sale of Galoc, which Granby was instrumental in transforming from a formerly stranded discovery into a commercial development that is currently drilling, very clearly demonstrates our ability to create value for shareholders through the integration of our technical, commercial and financial skills.

Granby has an active drilling programme spanning exploration, appraisal and development with three wells currently drilling, and is preparing for at least three more wells in 2008. Following the sale of Granby's interest in the Galoc field, Granby is well positioned to pursue its strategy to acquire other appraisal and development opportunities in the North Sea, onshore Europe and in other areas of interest."

rgds
lowerSharpnose

[lowersharpnose] 30/11/2007 08:35

Granby Oil and Gas plc hereby announces that it was notified today of the following Interests in Shares of the Company by Credit Suisse.

Institution Beneficial Holder Shareholding Percentage of
Issued Capital
Credit Suisse Credit Suisse Securities 3,595,238 9.87%
(Europe) Limited

The total number of shares in issue is 36,404,762.

If GOIL's website is up to date then this is a sale.



Major Shareholders Holding
Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited 11.48%

rgds
lowerSharpnose

[lowersharpnose] 28/11/2007 07:58

Tristan NW Development Well Drilling Commenced

Granby Oil and Gas plc, the oil and gas exploration and production company with interests in the UK North Sea and onshore Europe, is pleased to announce that drilling operations on the Tristan NW gas development well commenced on 27 November 2007. The single subsea well is expected to take approximately 70 days to drill and complete as a horizontal production well.

The development consists of a single subsea well with a control umbilical and 15km flowline which will deliver gas to the Davy platform. From there, the gas will be transported to the Bacton Terminal via the Inde 23a platform and existing pipelines.

Granby has a 54% participating interest in, and is production operator of, the Tristan North West gas development in UKCS Licence P.105 Block 49/29b in the UK Southern North Sea. Mitsubishi Corporation has provided a loan facility agreement for the development, and its subsidiary MC Exploration (UK) Ltd and Mosaic Natural Resources are co-venturers in the project. First gas
production is anticipated in the first quarter of 2008.

rgds

[robizm] 24/11/2007 20:28

From what I can read on Kerloch it seems very high risk. When you have had three duds I suppose your luck has to change.

[deswalker] 22/11/2007 19:42

There are a few conflicting reports out there between Merills and Credit Suisse. In my spreadsheet I've gone for the CS estimate in their new DNX note(dated yesterday) of 27mmbbls gross recoverables. I've seen 60mmbbls OOIP mentioned elsewhere so 27mmbbls sounds reasonable and the DNX note claims to have used data from the company. Meanwhile ML is flip-flopping about between 50 and 17mmbbls gross recoverables which appear to be their own estimates.

CS are using about $12 per bbl in their note and ML are using $10 per bbl in theirs from late September. I like to be conservative and have gone for something lower than those two but at $98 oil I suspect it's much higher if developed as a tieback.

[lowersharpnose] 22/11/2007 18:45

Farm in to UKCS Block 211/22a NW and Kerloch Discovery



Highlights:

Ø Acquisition of 10% interest in Kerloch area of block 211/22a North West

Ø Appraisal well currently drilling

Granby Oil and Gas plc, the oil and gas exploration and production company with interests in the UK North Sea and onshore Europe, is pleased to announce that it has executed a Farm-In Agreement to participate with a 10% interest in UK North Sea Licence P.201 Block 211/22a NW, which contains the Kerloch oil discovery.

The field was discovered in 1976 by well 211/22-1. The new appraisal well which commenced drilling on 21st November into an adjacent fault block is expected to take 30 days to drill.

Under the agreed terms, to earn a 10% participating interest from First Oil Expro Limited, Granby will fund 15% of the costs of drilling and testing the well up to a 100% gross expenditure capped at £14 million. For expenditure above the £14 million cap, Granby will contribute costs in accordance with its 10% participating interest.

The assignment of interests is subject to approval of the Secretary of State for the Department of Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (DBERR) to the assignment of Licence interests to Granby.

David Grassick, Managing Director of Granby Oil and Gas, said:
'We are pleased to participate in the appraisal of the Kerloch discovery, which is in line with our strategy to acquire other appraisal and development opportunities in the North Sea and other areas of interest.'

Bob Moore, Commercial Director of Granby Oil & Gas, said:

'Following the sale of Galoc, Granby is now able to recycle some of the funds into other appraisal and development projects such as Kerloch and Monkwell.'

Looks to be a Dana operated block.

Dana 50%
Antrim 21%
First Expro 19%
Granby 10%




Haven't found anything on prospect size yet.

rgds
lowerSharpnose

[lowersharpnose] 22/11/2007 08:00

Interim results



...Outlook
Increasing demand for energy against a background of supply concerns has ontinued to induce rises in the prices of both oil and gas worldwide. Of particular note is the current strength of UK gas prices. However, industry costs have also continued to rise. In particular, the semi submersible rig market remains very tight, and Granby is fortunate to have booked a well slot for next year already.
The jack up and onshore rig markets offer a little more flexibility and the addition of onshore licences in Poland will help ensure continued exploration activity.

With continued market sceptism about the funding of many AIM listed oil and gas companies, Granby is well positioned in that, post the sale of Galoc, the Group will be in strong financial health and will have more than sufficient funding to carry out additional appraisal and development activity.

2008 is expected to be another very active year as the Group continues to manage its portfolio, proactively seeking to add further value and provide exposure to exploration, development and production opportunities for investors.

David Grassick, Managing Director of Granby Oil and Gas, said:

"Granby has made excellent progress in recent months and the Board anticipates this to continue over the coming year. We expect to crystallise the value of the Galoc development created over the last two years by Granby by completing the sale in mid December 2007. The US$25 million consideration plus
our current cash will provide more than sufficient funding for the Group's growth over the next year.
First production is also anticipated next year from the Tristan NW development project, which is financed and underway, with a development well about to commence drilling.

We have an active exploration and appraisal programme underway. An exploration well is currently drilling onshore in Yorkshire, an appraisal well is also drilling the northern North Sea Kerloch discovery, and an appraisal well is planned for the Monkwell gas discovery. We have committed to one well slot on a semi-submersible rig, and are in discussions regarding a second, to enable at least two exploration wells to be drilled on Granby's central North Sea portfolio in mid 2008. Finally, we have added an opportunity for further onshore exploration with the recent option over two blocks in Poland.

For a Group of Granby's size this is an immense amount of activity, which we seek to maintain, as we continue to provide our investors with exposure to a balanced portfolio of opportunities."

rgds
lowerSharpnose

[deswalker] 21/11/2007 17:27

RNS out. Rig secured for a CNS well in April/May. Still deciding what to do with it.

Interims tomorrow.

[sandbank] 20/11/2007 16:36

January 12th looks a good day to buy this one

[2jimmys] 20/11/2007 15:29

We'll find out soon enough I suppose, hopefully get us moving up again. Friendless share at the moment, too much going on elsewhere.

[deswalker] 20/11/2007 15:02

Jimmy,

At the bottom of their most recent RNS it says ...

Granby has a 9.00% interest in the Monkwell gas field in UKCS Licence P.001, Block 42/29a. The field was discovered in 1989 by well 42/29-6, which produced gas at a rate of 26.8mmcfd from the Lower Leman Sandstone. The field was appraised by two further wells which also tested gas. A new well is planned for 2008 to further appraise the field and to enable a development decision to be made.

Sticking my finger in the air, assuming a gross production rate of 18mmcfd then 9% equals 1.62mmcfd net to GOIL which is about 270 boepd in volume terms.

Details of DNX's Norwegian discovery were released this morning. They have too much on to be thinking about Monkwell IMO so I hope that GOIL are doing a deal to tidy it up cheaply for the benefit of both parties.