Granby Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[mjcrockett] 04/8/2008 07:52

etc, Re IGP - I agree an interesting company. However, the share price is quite high. The market cap is four times last year's turnover. IGP gets a mention in this month's Aimzine - free to register at The IGP piece is in the article on Directors buying shares.

MJ

[deswalker] 02/6/2008 07:48

Globe and Roebuck both came in dry today. Phew.

[deswalker] 22/4/2008 19:37

Proceeds now in TDW account too. So that's me done with this stock and thread. Good luck all. See you around.

GOIL cash already shared out between GED and HVN. Both look very cheap to me.

[deswalker] 22/4/2008 15:59

Takeover proceeds just appeared in my Selftrade account. Nothing yet at TDW.

[deswalker] 15/4/2008 14:08

Could someone have been short and they're now having to buy them back at a premium ?? Agree it's a funny one.

[mjcrockett] 15/4/2008 09:28

Why is someone paying 65p for GOIL shares today? There was another 65p trade yesterday.

MJ

[deswalker] 10/4/2008 23:31

chelsea ... I hear what you're saying about position sizeing. With hindsight I owned a few too many of these but everything looked rosy until pretty recently and one has to bet big to win big. I'm not going to be quite as aggressive with similar companies going forward though.

I've always been biased against EO. for some reason. I looked at it time and time again before the Gas Storage story emerged when it was 18p but always came to the conclusion that GOIL was much more undervalued as an E&P company. I completely missed the Gas Storage angle and still don't understand it, I must have been on holiday or something. Hopefully it will work out for holders but I feel like I've missed that train and I don't assign much value to the E&P prospects as a back-up, though I'm probably wrong.

HAWK is one that I've looked at a bit and quite like but it's gas and the returns just aren't the same as oil. I've decided to pass again for now. Its the same reason that I can't get excited about AEX, so much of it is gas :-)

Made a nice profit on VPC last year. Picked up some cheap Wham after the takeover was announced which legged me into VPC at a very good level which I then sold for a nice profit. But I've gone off the N Sea and especially gas so I doubt I'll revisit. I've got a few DNX but I'm close to the exit there.

sranmal, I don't like MTA and know nothing about EEN and even less about LDP. Will check them out. Thks.

My three small cap oilcos were GOIL, GED and WTE in that order. Since GOIL is no more I've added a fair few more funds to GED. To be honest I think it's much cheaper than GOIL ever was but I've decided to not bet quite so big this time.

WTE is a low-risk wind-up play. It's simply made up of cash, shares in SEY, DES and an unquoted company called Eclipse. With Eclipse valued at the Book Value of the last private equity funding round a couple of years ago, WTE trades at over a 20% discount to its NAV. However Eclipse looks set to come to market within twelve months and ought to be worth a multiple (2-3 times) its current book value. This implies WTE trades 40-50% below NAV. They have also stated that they're going to wind everything up (cash plus three quoted companies) and return everything to shareholders. No new investments to worry about so hopefully cash out within 18 months. DYOR.

I'm also spending more time looking at traditional small-cap value investments. Some are looking much more attractive than many small AIM-listed oilcos/miners IMO. Many of these are getting found out, that their projects are actually getting more marginal at $100 oil, $900 gold, and not more profitable. This shows just how much costs have increased. The charts of companies such as SRB & MCR tell a story IMO.

Right, back to the golf...

[sranmal] 10/4/2008 22:34

A lot of ifs and buts. If only they'd kept Galoc instead of farming into Tristan!

I'd add my recommendation for EO. too. HAWK is interesting but the proposed production profile isn't too appealing to me. Have a look at LDP though - just started looking at this myself. US assets, 2,000 boepd to come onstream soon (well A-6, see RNS today), further development wells and explo too with plenty of acreage.

Then there's the usual suspects - MTA, EEN, etc.

[hyper al] 10/4/2008 21:33

DesWalker

Your post sums it up all very well.

I started this thread, with the hope that these guys would do good for me/us.

I did move on, but many a time I looked at getting back in, based on hope. Unfortunately they have pulled the plug. I do admire them for not taking it all the way and ripping everything from us investors. They have given it a good bash, it has not worked and they have gained some dignity (although I'm sure some will disagree!) by seeing a reasonable close to the situation.

Such a shame it has not worked. But some respect for the exit strategy.

Best regards to all past and current investors.

Hyper Al

[baht] 09/4/2008 15:30

Going to use the funds to top up my Genesis (GPC) holdings. They have a number of N.Sea interests, and are due to start drilling in Q3 on the one they own 100%. Its in a promising position and if it is a strike the share price should shoot up. I bought into Granby just prior to drilling on a N.Sea project but Genesis, I think, has more chance of success. They also have some useful licences in Norwegian Waters. Worth a look if you dont have an intended home for the partial compensation from being "mugged" of your Granby shares.

As always DYOR etc

Anyone else any other suggestions for a new oily share?

[baht] 09/4/2008 15:18

Elvis has left the building!

[deswalker] 09/4/2008 07:23

There it is people. Declared unconditional with 97.2% acceptances. Money received approx 22 April.

[dreggspicker] 27/3/2008 19:24

Could still fall thru - but somehow I doubt it.

[rapier686] 27/3/2008 19:20

They've been offering 60.25 to sell the last few times. But that's still a 5% haircut and you've got to be desperate to pay that to save a months waiting.

[dreggspicker] 27/3/2008 19:18

badtime, I think you will find they are sells.

[badtime] 27/3/2008 19:08

couple of buys at 60.25...i cudnt get any at 60.75

[chelseapaul] 26/3/2008 23:02

Thanks Guys, one suspects the GOIL board will want this pre April 5th, so heres hoping for Des. (GOIL for the taper on the options?)

[rapier686] 26/3/2008 22:55

Des, there's no rush to accept by the deadline. It is indeed a vote - albeit one with the same degree of mystery as Putin's successor.

One can hold back till the offer succeeds - when it goes unconditional there'll still be a fortnight or so to accept it before one risks ending up a minority shareholder. But there's no point waiting and accepting sooner might mean the money turns up sooner.

Re tax point - it's certainly not when you accept as at that stage there's not certainty that the offer will proceed. It's probably the later of offer unconditional and your acceptance.

Edit- just seen you've found this out anyway. As the closing date of the offer's in the next tax year, only way you can take your loss this year is to sell in the market. And a 5% haircut to get your money maybe 4 weeks earlier is a bit steep.

[deswalker] 26/3/2008 20:01

dreggs,

This is the reply I just got from Gengulphus on the ADVFN CGT board ...

To be precise, it's the later of the date that you accept the offer and the date the offer goes unconditional. Furthermore, if the offer goes unconditional, the offer will remain open for acceptance for at least 14 days afterwards and your broker should still allow you to accept it, and if it doesn't go unconditional, nothing will happen anyway.

The net result is that the date for CGT purposes will almost certainly be in next tax year, but it's just conceivable that that it will be declared unconditional before its first closing date, in which case it could be this tax year. So if I wanted to ensure that it was next tax year, I would wait until it had gone unconditional and next tax year had arrived before accepting.

The risk with such a course of action is that the absence of your acceptance might make the difference between the takeover being declared unconditional and not being, which is usually rather unlikely for a private shareholding. And even then, it only makes a difference if the bidder gives up rather than extending the offer.

Gengulphus

Unfortunately for me I would rather take my loss in this tax year but the likelihood of the Offer being declared unconditional before 6th April would seem to be a long shot, so in all probabilities the Takeover falls in the 08/09 tax year for CGT purposes. Is this in agreement with your understanding of events ?

Des

[dreggspicker] 26/3/2008 19:36

Well according to my account who's chartered, it is the date you tell your broker, (if in crest) I researched all this recently when brokernet holdings got taken out and the 2year relief was just after the deadline. My accountant told me to sit on my hands, ignore the bullies, told my brokers about a week latter than the deadline, got my money soon after. As I said earlier they can't be sure of getting over 90% until the date,or near it, then you will see you get 20 days at worst, after it is declared unconditional. Obviously they want you to be scared. I could be up the Amazon for a month, how could they get my shares then? Just don't leave it for months. My accountant once left some shares in a company for about a year, then what he got was a court order in the post and the full money for his shares! But I would not risk that.
As for accepting early for this tax reason I can't see why it won't work the other way round as your broker will acknowledge your request to accept before the (deadline) by putting a date in your account.
All this is of course my interpretation on it all, "do not blame me if I am wrong!"

[deswalker] 26/3/2008 19:04

Thks to chelsea and dreggs for their comments re timings. I've just posted a question on the CGT board here and on TMF to seek confirmation. Fingers crossed I can get my loss in this tax year.