Goshawk Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[dayjob] 04/11/2005 13:32

aidy, you seem like you can spot an opportunity. Do you want to buy my "Elvis to marry an alien in 2006" bet off me at 100/1?

[aidypiper] 04/11/2005 13:13

got out of these at 42p months ago and only just looked at the chart, had to look twice 5p fancy getting some! does anyone reckon they will go bust? end of the hurricane season soon so may pose for a recovery

[aidypiper] 04/11/2005 13:08

these are obviously heading for 50p roll on next week

[iamashardasnails] 04/11/2005 12:58

great call cool!

[elsworth] 04/11/2005 12:57

Thanks Mikey......as always it takes some technical analysing and shifting through some figures!

Hope it helps

The Prof

[mike crowsoft] 04/11/2005 12:43

Thanks Elsie.

Good work.

[elsworth] 04/11/2005 12:40

This stock should see below 1p soon........another drip...drip........drip............BANG .5p should be pretty close.
Its plain simple to read, this is worth shiitttttteeee.

Hope it helps

The Prof

[the big fella] 03/11/2005 17:00

I closed my short today on the back of this news. May fall further , but I am more than happy with my profits.
BTW - cheers EC for flgging this. A bit slower than you but my best banked profit for ages.

[jsaleem] 03/11/2005 14:47

Phew !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I got in at 14.5p and then jumped off at 10p. I feel sorry for the (idiots) that held on in the last week ! As for the bloke that bought 100,000 at 9p 4 minutes before it tumbled to 6p - madness / unlucky !

I switched all my funds to SPIRENT !

Bye bye Goshawk !

[handycam] 03/11/2005 14:38

Administration beckons, I'm afraid.

[handycam] 03/11/2005 13:38

Well, not a good statement. I think that crunch time has truly arrived.

[effortless cool] 02/11/2005 21:50

thedawn,

I believe that GOS has a true value somewhere in the range of 0p to 15p, but that the risk is heavily biased towards the downside. Given the rash of increased Katrina estimates we've seen in the last fortnight, I expect more pain for GOS.

I'm quite happy to continue to run my full short position and wait for the bad news. Upside risk looks extremely limited, given the uncertainty from Katrina, downgrade clauses and run-off costs - I can't conceive why anyone would buy these at present.

EC

[thedawn] 02/11/2005 00:20

EC

An extremely cheeky request I know! Unfortunately I didn't follow GOS nor notice its rapid downfall until my post. I hope you did very well from your understanding of insurance.

Well done. Just out of interest, how much lower do you think these may go?

Cheers : )

[effortless cool] 31/10/2005 21:08

thedawn,

Thank you. It's not often that an investment opportunity presents itself with such clarity as GOS did recently. I hope you benefitted from it.

Tips from me will be few and far between, and all focussed on the general insurance sector. I'm afraid you will just have to keep your eyes open, as I don't offer an email alerting service.

EC

[thedawn] 31/10/2005 02:17

EC

I am extremely impressed about the potential you found here 6/7 weeks ago. I stumbled across your thread after finding Goshawk on the highest monthly fallers list. Congratulations. Feel free to let me know about other threads you start :) at [e-mail]

Cheers and good luck to all.

[handycam] 25/10/2005 20:07

Dear Alex,

These boards are monitored but take it from me they have underwritten far too much and will be hit accordingly. I cannot state more than that.

The key word in stock market trading for all of these things (as you well might know) is patience! The higher they go, the more excited the bears, for it was we who spotted independent insurance at 350p. In fact, in the case of that company just about everyone in Lloyds knew that it was indeed a house of cards.

Yours etc.,

[alexandrews] 25/10/2005 14:11

handycam,

Still waiting for a bit more explanation of the Hiscox/Brit comparison thing if you're still reading this.

Alex

[jsaleem] 25/10/2005 13:23

I for one have cut my losses and sold my stake in Goshawk - rather still retain some of my cash. It will be interesting to see what happens over the coming few weeks.

[paddyfool] 24/10/2005 22:55

their is no value here and the announcement doesnt help on the capital front beware........

[alexandrews] 24/10/2005 11:12

2magpies,

Thanks again. As I suspected. I have no doubt there are a few hefty short positions that will be looking to close out, so I'd expect some sort of support for the price in the short term. Phrases containing the word "bargepole" still spring to mind though.

Alex

[2magpies] 24/10/2005 09:58

AA

To be brutally honest, and strictly imo, there is no value at all at present.

HOWEVER, at some time in the future (could be 5 years plus)some or all of the following MAY happen:

1. Reserves turn out to have been conservative, therefore there could be some return.

2. Aggressive commutation may result is resrves being also reduced.

3. Someone may buy the run-off portfolio (if they suspect that reserves are too high).

4. Management itself sees value and does an MBO.


In summary, I for one can't see why they are worth £19m -- that's a lot of hope.

Please dyor.