Goshawk Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[paddyfool] 06/9/2005 17:35

Straight from the announcement:

The current expectation
is that these programmes should be sufficient and the company's net loss
attributable to Hurricane Katrina is projected to be in the range of $25 million
to $30 million. The impact of Hurricane Katrina is therefore not expected to
reduce GoshawK's year-end capital.

The implication here is twofold

a) Katrina as articulated at the moment will not erode capital...so assume two things, one no new capital to undserwrite against next year and more importantly, if Katrina develops as aloss beyond current view then it will erode capital, i.e. it came very close to doing that.

b) Hurricane season is still running, Goshawk are vunerable.

c) The quality of their reinsurance programme is assumed to be high, if not and some of the reinsurers fail........

and against all that the price goes up! long live the great unwashed!

[alexandrews] 02/9/2005 10:27

The point is biswell that the institutions and big-time investors don't base their decisions on articles in IC, and they are the ones that will move the price in a stock like GOS.

Got any more tips on the oil price?

[biswell] 02/9/2005 10:02

The point is Alex many do buy and sell on IC advice, so it pays to look at what they say.

biswell - 29 Aug'05 - 11:04 - 19 of 26 edit


Looks like a sell

Investors Chronic One don't like it

B

biswell - 29 Aug'05 - 11:05 - 20 of 26 edit


Failed at 47p

macd now on the way to another low maybe like before = 39p

B

AlexAndrews - 29 Aug'05 - 12:58 - 21 of 26


LOL - is that where you get all your share tips from biswell, Investor's Chronicle? That would certainly explain a lot.

[paddyfool] 02/9/2005 09:48

It will be much more than $25 billion.

[alexandrews] 02/9/2005 09:40

Cheers for that Pomp.

[pomp circumstance] 02/9/2005 09:18

1129 GMT [Dow Jones] Numis says Hurricane Katrina losses look increasingly likely to be "one of the largest single insurance losses on record" with estimates ranging between $10B and $25B. Says Goshawk (GOS.LN) and Advent (ADV.LN) are likely to suffer from their catastrophe focus with Amlin (AML.LN), Brit (BRE.LN), Chaucer (CHU.LN) and Wellington (WUN.LN) having above-average reinsurance or marine exposure. Anticipates initial estimates of impact during 1H results season, with Amlin first to report September 5. Notes Lloyd's market has set a deadline of September 12 for syndicates to supply details of the impact. (PBA)

[greenpastures] 01/9/2005 17:55

If I read the annual report correctly GOS has risk mitigation procedures in place so that a severe natural catastrophe loss should be restricted at the outside to 30% of nta. That puts us around the present share price by my reckoning. However, there is likely to be several more storms before the season is finished according to the US Met office.

We seem to be in a severe and numerous tropical storm cycle so I hope the risk procedures GOS use are taking that into account.

[alexandrews] 01/9/2005 15:44

biswell,

Honestly, I really don't need to read IC to spot a good or bad investment.

I would really love to experience that fantasy world you live in. I'm still laughing about your prediction of an imminent $10 drop in the price of oil a few weeks ago when it was trading at ~$54 - only ~$25 for it to drop now for it to reach your golden $44 target. Did you get that tip from IC as well? I notice you have gone back and cleared all the posts on the threads where you made the prediction...

LOL

[biswell] 01/9/2005 15:40

Ash will have sold at circa 45p

B

[pomp circumstance] 01/9/2005 15:38

Fools are selling this down based on katrina, obioulsy dont realise its a US conspiracy for sympathy!

Most of what you see on the TV is made up by Dreamworks, and the few people who did die in the mush lesser storm had no insurance and were expendable by bush as well!!!


Hows that Ash!! ill get your money back for you!!!

[biswell] 01/9/2005 15:35

Alex you still taking them salts ? your liver any better ? The thing is Alex many punters do take note of what IC say......you seem to have missed it

biswell - 29 Aug'05 - 11:04 - 19 of 26 edit


Looks like a sell

Investors Chronic One don't like it

B

biswell - 29 Aug'05 - 11:05 - 20 of 26 edit


Failed at 47p

macd now on the way to another low maybe like before = 39p

B

AlexAndrews - 29 Aug'05 - 12:58 - 21 of 26


LOL - is that where you get all your share tips from biswell, Investor's Chronicle? That would certainly explain a lot.

[pomp circumstance] 01/9/2005 15:12

yeh right!!!!

[mr ashley james] 01/9/2005 14:47

Pomp,

If you Hold a Catastrophe Excess of Loss Reinsurer Long through USA/Caribbean Hurricane Season between July and December each year more fool you.

I closed ages ago.

Cheers

Ash:)

[pomp circumstance] 01/9/2005 08:16

Oh dear, another Ashley stock pick goes pear shaped!!!!

[pomp circumstance] 30/8/2005 10:30

Phoenix pickiing up stock today on Kattrina fears!!

[greenpastures] 30/8/2005 10:25

I will take 50p if Phonenix will offer it. I wonder what effect Katrina will have on profits and net assets?

[alexandrews] 29/8/2005 12:58

LOL - is that where you get all your share tips from biswell, Investor's Chronicle? That would certainly explain a lot.

[biswell] 29/8/2005 11:05

Failed at 47p

macd now on the way to another low maybe like before = 39p

B

[biswell] 29/8/2005 11:04

Looks like a sell

Investors Chronic One don't like it

B

[pomp circumstance] 22/8/2005 09:18

I would guess Phoenix bought that 50k T trade on friday and the 39k this morning, aint got L2 at the mo, but assume an MM is still in bed hence the wide spread!!

[mr ashley james] 19/8/2005 11:27

Recent Loss Advices


RNS Number:2787Q
Goshawk Insurance Holdings PLC
19 August 2005

GoshawK Insurance Holdings plc
("GoshawK" or "the Company")


Recent Loss Advices



GoshawK has been advised of certain offshore energy catastrophe losses affecting
its marine account which will negatively impact the result for the six months
ended 30 June 2005. The Company has also incurred losses, to a limited extent,
on winter cyclone Erwin and the Suncor plant loss in Canada during the first
half of 2005. The cumulative effect of these items means that the Company now
expects to report a marginal dollar loss before tax for the period. The Company
will announce its interim results on 15 September 2005.


The marine loss advices received are for hurricane Ivan which occurred in late
2004 and on which the Company had set aside a reserve in excess of loss advices
previously received. The total of the loss advices received exceeds the amount
reserved. Since the losses previously reported on hurricane Ivan had already
fully utilised the Company's retrocessional protections, yesterday's loss
development negatively impacts net profitability. Assuming catastrophe activity
in the second half of 2005 is within normal provisions, GoshawK expects to
achieve an acceptable, if reduced, outcome for the full year.





19 August 2005



Enquiries:

GoshawK Insurance Holdings plc

Paul Spencer, Chairman 020 7499 2355
Russell Brooke, Chief Executive [phone]
Jonathan Beck, Finance Director


College Hill 020 7457 2020

Tony Friend
Richard Pearson






This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END

MSCGUUBARUPAUQB

[alexandrews] 19/8/2005 10:19

Disappointing news today. This is a less than good reflection on the actual insurance aspect of the company (rather than the investment aspect, which was Phoenix' beef).

Greenpastures: Worth noting that last year's hurricane season was exceptional (worst on record?). Also, NTA/NAV both at ~55p according to my figures, but expect them to report lower figures at the interims given today's announcement.

Just my opinions,

Alex

[greenpastures] 19/8/2005 09:43

What do you think is a reasonable price for gos? Net assets are about 54p aren't they?

[pomp circumstance] 19/8/2005 09:31

Will have to see if Phoenix take up and sales today!!

Still a way to go to get that last 1%!!