Goshawk Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[effortless cool] 07/5/2007 20:47

Go for it then!

The floor is yours ...

[handycam] 07/5/2007 18:22

There are 40.2 million reasons to remain short of Gos, whereas pre-reconstruction a market cap. of £6m wasn't enough to go for. Free float here is a maximum 25% or >200m shares, so there is added liquidity.

We had the same position with Marconi at 2.1p. Nothing to go for, thought everyone, but the maths told otherwise. 9m we sold and then gave .54 of a penny to get them back, ie. £40m became £10m, as indeed it had to. That is what one can expect here.

[effortless cool] 03/5/2007 19:48

handycam,

I agree with you - I think that Phoenix were idiots to put more in, given the risks involved. However, once they did, the value went out of the short.

I'm short CGL because I hear they are losing a lot of Wellington underwriting staff now bonuses have been paid. It seems there is still a lot of loyalty to David Foreman, and he is busy recruiting tothe new Ark syndicate. I've only got a relatively small bet here, offset by a matching long on AUW.

[handycam] 03/5/2007 19:25

EC, with Gos, well, that's not what the auditors are saying. With suspension, £41m could easily be half that eighteen months' out, if as long as that. It's still very tight and I still wonder why Phoenix put in another £15m or so to get £20m back.

Catlin is now the largest syndicate in the [Lloyds] market and the real benefit of Wellington is the significant scale in its US operation. The eps has moved ahead substantially and, obviously, you will have to pay 17pps back in dividend this Wednesday morning (9th).

[effortless cool] 27/4/2007 22:04

handycam,

GOS results look pretty much as expected. I don't see it as a good short any more.

Catlin, on the other hand, I am short on ...

EC

[handycam] 27/4/2007 20:54

There's your answer, Brian. Time to re-open your bear, EC.

By the way, EC, I reckon Catlin is the cheapest stock in the 350 basis 522p. A 17p final dividend is ex 9th May, which is a very confident yield on the part of the Board. After Katrina etc., I thought that Wellington would suffer more than it transpired to have done. CGL see the acquisition subsequently as some sort of a coup.

Yours etc.,

[brian1944] 22/4/2007 21:55

well the share price as been at 2p to 5p range. for the best part of 2years time for a change ???

[effortless cool] 21/4/2007 19:30

What's your view then, Brian?

[brian1944] 20/4/2007 11:07

any new news. for recovery play

[effortless cool] 21/2/2007 21:53

I've closed my position over the last few days, at an average of 3.9p.

I understand that Goshawk are commuting outstanding claims below $1m at 100%, which suggests that they are pretty confident as to their solvency.

I've enjoyed the ride, even if I did hang on too long, trying to squeeze out those last few pence.

[effortless cool] 15/1/2007 21:12

An interesting day. News in the offing?

[tinker tailor] 28/12/2006 23:22

Does this stock have any potential these days.Was a holder some years ago and all it has done is drop like a brick.Would like to think they could turn it around but it certainly does not look that way.Any comments appreciated.

[effortless cool] 08/12/2006 09:51

So Britain's 344th richest man is now an investor.

I still think that GOS is more likely to take him to 345th than 343rd.

[effortless cool] 25/10/2006 06:42

Thank you, ursus. I can't argue with that.

[ursus] 24/10/2006 22:12

perhaps it's one for the central fund. you've done brilliantly on this one, ec.

[effortless cool] 24/10/2006 22:05

So Advent's gross loss from hurricanes has deteriorated by 11.7% since year-end. I expect this pattern to be repeated throughout the sector.

Any deterioration Goshawk expereinces will flow directly through to net.

Let's look on the bright side and guess at a 10% gross deterioration for Goshawk. That's another $25m on the reserves. How are they going to pay for that?

EC

[effortless cool] 24/10/2006 21:57

From Advent's trading update published 24 October 2006.

30 September 2006 31 December 2005
Advent Share
Gross Ult Net Ult Gross Ult Net Ult
$ $ $ $

Hurricane Katrina 193.4 81.8 196.0 85.7
Hurricane Rita 69.8 36.5 51.5 20.4
Hurricane Wilma 72.9 29.5 53.4 37.4

Advent share of loss - US$m 336.1 147.8 300.9 143.5

[effortless cool] 24/10/2006 21:49

From Goshawk's year-end results published 29 June 2006.

"In respect of the US hurricanes, each 1% of deterioration is expected to cost the group about $2.5m on a gross basis and because the reinsurance in place is largely eroded by the current reserves, any future deterioration is likely to result in a direct reduction of group net asset value as though gross equated to net".

[boxwellian] 24/10/2006 01:21

Peter M. Collery, who indirectly controls SC Fundamental Value BVI,
Ltd. and who is a voting member of SC Fundamental LLC, accordingly is interested
in all the Shares referred to above (being 63,297,209 Shares in aggregate and
representing approximately 7.2% of the issue share capital).

"Mr. Collery was co-founder of the investment firm of Siegler, Collery & Co. in 1989 and previously was a vice president of the investment banking firm of Dillon, Read & Co. Inc. in New York City. Mr. Collery holds a BA in Economics from Yale College. "

[boxwellian] 21/10/2006 00:19

83,793,848 shares sold=?just under 10% of the Co

[effortless cool] 19/10/2006 20:58

I'm still short, for old times sake.

I understand that 2005 hurricane claims are on the move again, driven by new advices on the energy account.

This won't be a problem for continuing insurers, who can easily absorb those losses amongst the excess profits they're getting due to the low hurricane expereince this year.

For run-off reinsurers with no 2006 hurricane exposure, it may be a different matter, however ....

[handycam] 19/10/2006 19:50

There is not a trade here, I'm afraid.

[effortless cool] 02/10/2006 21:19

Oh yes you can!

[lord santafe] 29/9/2006 19:34

so you can not short GOS then?.