Goldshield Share Discussion Threads

[old giggleswickian] 02/12/2004 17:19

Lossman,
Thanks for your comments and the recent movement in the share price is not lost on me but I do wonder about the merit of the Barclays holding. It is announced as "Barclays PLC through its "legal entities", had a notifiable interest" and I am not sure whether this means that Barclays has bought for its own funds or is acting as a nominee which would make the name Barclays irrelevant. I am a little more impressed by "Schroder Investment Management Limited on behalf of itself and an affiliated company and a subsidiary company, informing it that they have an interest in an overall aggregate of 8,495,872 shares representing 22.98% of the Company's issued ordinary share capital." But then again maybe I shoudn't!

Ian.

[lossman] 02/12/2004 15:35

Old Giggles - all shares are difficult to value, and a valuation is irrelevant if supply and demand do not support the valuation.

The SFO investigation began a couple of years ago, and nothing has been reported since. It is still ongoing as it was mentioned at the last set of accounts.

Mkt cap of £85m with Barclays owing 25%.

Debt expected to be fully repaid by reporting on Monday, which means paying off loans of £13m in 12 months. Some companies cannot pay off £1.3m in that timescale, so it is cash generative, paying off debts rapidly.

Barclays do not seem too keen to sell out at the moment, and the management do seem as though they feel the worst is behind them with a solid platform for growth. With no profit warning since last results, it would appear that things are progressing well, although no news is never always a good sign.

Monday's results will show where the company is going (obviously). If debts are all repaid, t/o has increased, and net profitable (plus increase in divi) then this deserves a premium of 50% to where it is now.

If no change, or bad news about the SFO investigation, then maybe 30% of the mkt cap will disappear very quickly.

If there is still a serious risk of litigation, I would have expected Barclays to have moved out by now, unless the investment forms part of financial backing agreements.

Price is moving up gradually pre results, and currently at 1:1 on t/o, it is undervalued compared to a lot of other Pharmaceuticals.

Buying is coming in steadily, and with only 39m shares in issue, it will move quickly on any sort of buying or selling.

My estimate is a 50% mark up from here if there is an improvement in the results.

GHA
KD

[old giggleswickian] 29/11/2004 14:39

My interest in this company was sparked when it was recently suggested to me that the SFO would soon be on their way to bother somebody else and I like what they are doing but I am trying to get a grip on a reasonable valuation which is not easy when you can't count let alone do accounts.
For me the key is the accounts of 15/6/04. In the results it says "Profit before interest, tax, amortisation and exceptional costs of £13.8 million" however it says in the AFX of the same date "pretax profit of 3.3 mln stg" At the same time "Bank debt was cut to 5.5 mln stg from 13.7 mln over the year". Now my question is "is the company presently capable of making £14m pa and just happened to use this to cut debt or can we expect a profit of £4m pa or thereabouts in the future?" Without some sort of guidance on this I can't narrow the value in my mind down to less that "somewhere between £40m and £225m" which is no basis for a judgement.
I take note of the idea that the company is currently valued at 1x turnover but this could also be not so important.

Ian.

[nobbygnome] 26/11/2004 19:43

Cos they know a good investment when they see it?

[praipus] 24/11/2004 12:51

Why have Barclays got a near 25% stake?

PS not a holder yet.

[nobbygnome] 24/11/2004 08:18

I am surprised at the lack of interest about GSD on this BB. They are valued at well below one times turnover which for a pharma like company is ridiculous.

I know there is still the investigation hanging over them but IMHO bad news there is already in the price. I am led to believe that they haven't got much of a problem with regard to this. The fact that it has taken so long suggests it is not clear cut and we could get a positive result.

Nobby

[vladivostock] 18/11/2004 11:04

this business is undervalued. it's a strong buy imho

[nobbygnome] 11/11/2004 08:13

From what I understand from a good source is that GSD are in the best position of all the companies with regard to the investigation. I am confident that the underlying results will be very good. They are benefitting from transfering a lot of their business to India. The fact they are getting the results out quickly after the year end bodes wery well IMHO.

Nobby

[flyinghog] 09/11/2004 08:16

Yes but rarely,
Not much will happen until interim results 6 December.
Investigation fears overhang price.

[nobbygnome] 15/6/2004 19:11

Good results and good prospects for the future. IMHO this looks like a very good buy for the future. And whatismore they are paying a divi of 2.5p!!!

It seems this stock is unloved on this board; is there anyone out there reading this post?

Regards

Nobby

[nobbygnome] 10/6/2004 22:28

It seems there is not much interest in GSD on this BB. I have heard from a good source that the results are expected to be very good next week. Has anyone else heard the same thing? The transfer of most of the business to India has resulted in massive cost savings and the prospects going forward look very good!

Just IMHO...

Nobby

[crazydays] 22/4/2004 14:21

Off thread but of potential interest to Goldshield agents.

MasterCard are just about to launch a new card into Europe via network marketing. If anyone is interested to know more, email me [e-mail]

[jiggle] 06/4/2004 13:55

any idea why aaaj?

[aaaj] 05/4/2004 15:59

WATCH OUT 4 THIS STOCK
I THINK IT WILL GO NEAR £3

[thedeal] 03/3/2004 20:32

good products, however the dollar at its present low levels will mean gross marjin will be hit in the biggest drug market. will sfo take action, put it this way, the company has no explanation to the rises in generic prices that occurred during the investgaive period, its silence on this issue is deafening

[jiggle] 01/3/2004 08:49

yeah? like what?

[made1686] 29/2/2004 00:14

i sold at a small profit heard bad new comeing on the 30 march

[jiggle] 26/2/2004 16:54

yeah I actually do, don't know much, cept for the recent history with the price-fixing allegations; there are still institutions in and still buying; price hit because of accusations; no charges have yet been placed and business goes ahead as usual - things GSD said, take us to court or drop any accusations. Either way it has to happen relatively quickly now, eg. next few months I would guess; if they get proved to be in the wrong, they get a big fine, and life moves on and price moves up as the "hit" is known, if they proved free of wrong doing price moves up accordingly.

Either way price should go up, the business is still going strong - confidence hit from customers from this should be clearing up; especially if it doesn't reach courts.

I hold - a bit.

[made1686] 25/2/2004 20:53

hi do you think it will go higher

[Abuse team] 24/2/2004 10:45

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[Abuse team] 24/2/2004 10:41

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[pictureframe] 23/2/2004 13:10

was just going to do some number crunching when I saw this

The group's profits have been seriously impacted by a long-running inquiry
by the Serious Fraud Office, which is yet to result in any charges being placed.

Think I will leave alone. Good luck

[Abuse team] 23/2/2004 12:38

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