Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[kimboy2] 04/10/2016 09:19

I think that the pit next door is the most profitable but it is probably some old mine that went bust years ago with various competing claims on it, so a bit of a puzzle to entangle I imagine.

I haven't seen the Tiptv interview as my computer is playing up but if Gerard is saying 40-50% I would expect something a bit over 50%.

The heap is of course a big asset which will give a handy increase to profits when it comes on stream. However it is also an asset that is being constantly renewed, at an ever increasing rate.

[wigwammer] 03/10/2016 11:48

Tiptv interview:Gerard speaks about 40-50% recovery from the stock dam, and they are waiting on securing a final deposition site before starting the processing i.e. pretty imminent.At say $500 cost per oz, that's a circa £20m asset, or £10m+ including tax, minorities and discounting. Current market cap circa £10m.

[kimboy2] 02/10/2016 17:49

Yes it is quite interesting that page. However if you take 27kozs of production and times it by the high/low variance in the gold price of $276/oz you get quite a big number.

The beauty of GDP is that it can adjust its input price so the effect of such a change of gold price won't be so severe. Now that it has got through its backlog it can match this even better.

Talking of which I notice that the 'precious metals in process' is virtually the same as last year despite having sold off 3kozs of backlog.

[rolo7] 02/10/2016 17:15

Gdp state they would get RR payment after taking legal advice, table on page 60 looks interesting big ranges in profits. Average gold price fy2016 was 1,167$ now 1300+ looks good to me!

[michaelfenton] 02/10/2016 15:43

I feel a little too much time is spent discussing the RR situation. For me it is a minor blip - yes woul be nice to receive the money but looking ahead it will be of little consequence and has in some ways creted a buying opportunity.

[shareholder7] 02/10/2016 15:34

Which means that it has not been provided for in the profit before tax SeaIf they don't receive this they would have to restate their 2016 profit

[sea7] 02/10/2016 14:19

I see the trade and other receivables figure of £6.255m contains the £679k disputed amount from rand refinery, as per note 21.

[kimboy2] 02/10/2016 11:37

The AR is on the website.

[flyingswan] 01/10/2016 12:22

This person is confident to buy Gold mining shares, see link. I understand GDP does do mining in some countries as well as recycling/recovery of waste products? I am surprise Goldplat GDP is not fully recognised as a Silver producer too?

[sea7] 30/9/2016 22:54

I see there is a tip tv interview on the website as well now.

[sea7] 30/9/2016 22:39

VSA note still available at the following link... it is also shown as the fifth one down on the downloads page.

[kimboy2] 30/9/2016 22:21

Also notice that the VSA report has disappeared from the website

[kimboy2] 30/9/2016 15:18

No I didn't understand the FCF number. I had ignored that.

[wigwammer] 30/9/2016 15:16

For example kb -Operating cash flows between 2018-20 shown to be at or around £1m pa on page 14.Yet free cash flows between 2018-20 average around £3m pa on page 3.

[kimboy2] 30/9/2016 15:10

Yes it isn't great, but I think that the two cash flows add up.

The one thing I notice they didn't account for is I think the minority interest earnings come back to GDP to pay for the original purchase.

[wigwammer] 30/9/2016 14:51

The vsa note is full of errors.Any idea how the free cash flow chart on page 3 can tally with the cash flow forecasts on page 14?Pretty amateur stuff.

[sea7] 30/9/2016 09:55

Tks for that analysis kb.

Gerard stated that with gold where it is, it allows GDP to self fund most things, so we should not have to concern ourselves about the ability of the company to deliver on its stated goals.

The margins are pretty thin and plenty of scope for increases.

After admin and cost of sales are removed, we are left with about $40 oz profit overall, from a group perspective, before finance income/taxation etc.

Plenty of opportunity to increase this figure and then we have the expected increases to come from expansion and upgrades.

End of Q1 today, so we shouldn't have to wait too long for some numbers.

[kimboy2] 30/9/2016 09:30

A few interesting snippets from VSA. I still think they are hopelessly conservative, but then I would wouldn't I.

For Kili they are expecting production to be 4.5kozs this year. Presumably that is 2kozs from the existing plant and 2.5kozs from 6 months of the new CIL.

That would put full year capacity at 5kozs and at 80tpd the grade of material would be 5.5g/t. Clearly all of that isn't coming out of their own mine.

If they could get the profit per oz up to $4-500/oz then we are looking at something producing a £2m profit rather than a £600k loss pa. You can see why it may be the major catalyst of share price changes.

Talking of margins;

SA Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16Prod 6,141 5,690 4,864 12,083Profit 0.415 0.275 0.845 0.57 Profit/oz 67 48 173 47 Ghana Prod 2797 1897 1885 304Profit 0.156 0.146 0.156 -0.021 Profit/oz 55 76 82 0 Kili Prod 643 289 503 570Profit -0.115 -0.217 -0.169 -0.21 Profit/oz -178 -75 -33 -36



These seem to me pretty thin margins and I would have thought that there was scope for an expansion of these.

VSA are also forecasting that SA will do 23kozs next year. Well they apparently did 12kozs in Q4/16 and only 3kozs of that was the RR deal. We will no doubt get a better clue in a months time.

There are also clearly plans to double Ghana production this year. A combination of more material and better grades. I would be expecting £1m+ from Ghana this year.

Anyway VSA are forecasting an operating profit of £1.9m for this year. They were out by a factor of 3 last year let's hope for the same this year.

[sea7] 29/9/2016 14:45

I see in the production forecasts on page 6, VSA are forecasting 23k ozs of production from Kili and 4.5k oz from south africa. Guess they got the typing the wrong way round, along with their forecasts for subsequent years.

They reckon that production will "normalise" at South africa, around 23k per year.
I think they are way out with that.

[sea7] 29/9/2016 14:21

I see they have labelled it as full year results! tks KB

[kimboy2] 29/9/2016 14:09

The VSA note is on the website;

[dangersimpson2] 28/9/2016 23:11

My reading is the 1.3m late trade early on 27/9 was a buy and balanced all the sells that happened on results day 26/9 - the multitude of sells could have been Nick G, which would explain why someone/people kept selling on good results but the 1.3m prob wasn't. The 2x1.3m late today probably a transfer between holders. Given the same number could be the same block and be a transfer from broker to client for example, or two other holders and the 1.3m matching the late trade might have just been a coincidence. Not sure we will ever know since 1.3m on it's own is not notifiable especially if it was one block reported multiple times.

[sea7] 28/9/2016 18:26

Couple of fairly large 1.3m share trades have shown up as late trades from the 26th Sept. They look like sells, based on the prices at the time.

Could be Nick selling down further.