Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[danielmiller1] 18/8/2016 15:50

Lololololololololo let not your left hand know what your right hand does.

Lolololololo

If one little post on one company I invest in causes you to comment

If I listed them all you would surely run outta time and paper.

Lolololololololololololol

[sea7] 18/8/2016 14:56

That would be one of the investments that you have never, ever mentioned on any board until now, after they post a divi and declare profits.

Had you really held any shares in harmony, you would have been bragging about it for all to hear, as you have done about all the other stocks you claim to have held.

All the ones you have bragged about, have collapsed. Inconvenient truth for you there eh miller.

You really are full of it smeagle.

[danielmiller1] 18/8/2016 13:18

One of my favourite investments has just announced a Divi.

I trust it lasts longer than the ill advised dividend announcement that GDP made lololololololololololololololo

hxxp://www.miningreview.com/news/harmony-gold-declares-dividend-and-swings-into-profit/

[russman] 18/8/2016 12:39

It is a conundrum.

[kimboy2] 18/8/2016 12:31

I am not sure how much material comes to them by way of RR, as well as just RR material. Also is this an alternative to RR;



My thinking now is that it could be the RR debt is going to court, or some sort of arbitration, and the delay has been to finalise the stock dam plans to sweeten the RNS.

I think we may find out next week.

[dangersimpson2] 18/8/2016 12:24

I think a complete breakdown of the commercial relationship would slightly reduce profits and short cash flow since material would have to go to Germany with the added time, logistics, insurance etc.

Although I'm not sure how much RR are taking at the moment given their previous issues.

The 600k/300k after tax that GDP would have got could have been re-invested into capex that we know has a very short pay-back period at the moment. So I think it is fair to estimate the cost above the nominal amount. The capex opportunities still exist of course but the delay reduces value due to the time value of money. What is a fair DCF for GDP? probably 15/20% given the business & commodity risks.

Overall I reckon it is fair to estimate a worst case impact of £1m if GDP sue and lose so don't get the cash and the relationship completely breaks down and GDP have to send everything to Germany.

That is £1m one-off though - immediate cash costs & NPV of future cash flows delayed & NPV of slight incremental costs. You wouldn't apply a multiple to this since it is already the NPV.

All very much finger in the air though. To estimate correctly you'd need to know how much currently goes to RR, the incremental cost of sending to Aurubis, the incremental cash flow delay of sending to Aurubis, the current internal rate of return on incremental invested capital and estimate a discount factor.

[kimboy2] 18/8/2016 11:47

If we are taking RR to court over this unpaid bill what is the potential downside, apart from the actual debt. Any views?

[russman] 17/8/2016 12:49

Maybe a pig in a poke.

[sea7] 16/8/2016 19:31

I see!!

and you

[discodave4] 16/8/2016 19:17

S7,:)Actually meant I would never average down!.All the best.DD

[sea7] 16/8/2016 14:00

DD,

Tks,

I can not average down at these prices, if I buy more my average goes up.

[sea7] 16/8/2016 11:26

One off negative events quite often present good short term opportunities for the long term investor to buy cheaper and for traders to scalp a penny.

No good whatsoever, to anyone looking to exit at the earliest opportunity after holding for years and seeing no profits whatsoever to book. (I have been there before). Frustrating, annoying and infuriating, so I know what DD is going through.

Do you commit more capital to reduce your overall share price average, in order to stand a chance of exiting earlier, or hold what you have to eternity, or book the loss and move on, worrying that as soon as you do, the stock will go up significantly. You hold, it goes down on a negative event, compounding your misery.
The level of uncertainty on what decision to make, can be horrible in such circumstances. DD has put a strategy together and has implemented it, he will execute it at the specified time. It is better than sitting there in doubt and uncertain.

On goldplat itself....

Goldplat had numerous problems on numerous fronts all at the same time. Careful analysis of each issue in turn proved that viable solutions could be found to all of them, making all the issues surmountable. The elephant in the room then, was the time it would take to "right the ship". Once again we knew that it was going to take at least 1-2 years to work through all the issues.

The issues really began back in mid 2014 with the Ghana operation, since then it has snowballed into issue after issue. Whilst it has taken just over two years to get the business to this point, it is a testament to the ability of the management and the production staff that we are where we are.

This Rand refinery matter, is unexpected and a big let down on rands side.

The current capex programme is likely to be running into 2018, this being the completion of stage 1 in kenya, the installation of the elution column in ghana and the installation of the third elution column, probably in south africa.

If goldplat has to go it alone with kili, then we could see the third elution column pushed back further.

The good thing is that we are not focusing on backlogs and production flow issues, we are focusing on the future shape of the company, with the rand invoice issue as a short term annoyance.

[kimboy2] 16/8/2016 11:08

On the RR issue I am still of the view that the probability is that it has been resolved and they are awaiting payment before they say anything. Otherwise they would have announced the operating results for last year as the treatment of a doubtful debt is simple and the results are have been known for a month.

If it hasn't been resolved and is a bad debt what are the possible consequences.

1. Last years figures will be £300k worse than they would have been.

2. The reduced cash flow may reduce potential capex. The CIL is clearly pushing ahead and the stock dam didn't appear to need much capex. It may however delay the next elution tower.

3. The problem with the RR smelter may not be confined to one month and may cause an increase in pipeline time and absorb more working capital with consequent reduction in cash for investment.

4. I am not sure how much business RR put GDP's way, but if there has been a major falling out this is likely to stop.

5. Could the problem with tis contract indicate problems elsewhere on the plant. We don't know the source of the problem but my guess would be that the dispute is contractual rather than operational, and therefore limited to RR.

[dangersimpson2] 16/8/2016 10:27

It's simply wrong to apply a multiple to a one-off event. If the market does it it is a mis-pricing. I am happy when there are material mis-pricings even if it introduces short term volatility into my portfolio.

Cut the persecution complex and you'll find this is a pretty knowledgeable board where people are pretty happy to disagree with each other.

[danielmiller1] 16/8/2016 09:25

Come come come stupid7 it's a well recognised fact that it is in fact you who dance to my tune. Your feeble attempts at reverse pyscholog, like all your other pathetic ploys, have again failed miserably

Now be a good lad and come back dancing to my tune....you are only small fry in these things!

[russman] 16/8/2016 09:12

Maybe it is a can of worms.

[sea7] 16/8/2016 07:51

Gullible as ever miller, I knew I could elicit a response from you. It doesn't take much to lure you out of the hole you hide in. You really are as gullible as they come miller.