Go-ahead Share Discussion Threads

[phil140158] 13/12/2011 19:32

Good day, trt! Bought £10k worth at 1350 for granny's ISA earlier in the year. With the excellent divi we're back in profit now, after a pretty scary dip. Quality always comes to the top in the end. Wonder what I should buy for her 2012 ISA??????????

edit: I bought some more with the dividend at 1226, so it only gets better!

[trt] 13/12/2011 11:09

PRE-CLOSE TRADING UPDATE

Robust trading in bus and rail; operating profit slightly ahead of Board expectations

Go-Ahead today announces its pre-close trading update for the six months ending 31 December 2011, ahead of its half year results which will be released on 23 February 2012.

Overall:

Trading in the period has been robust and we now expect the Group to deliver operating profit slightly ahead of our previous expectations, primarily in the rail division, for the full year to 30 June 2012.

David Brown, Group Chief Executive of Go-Ahead, said:

"While we remain suitably cautious about the medium term wider economic outlook, trading in both our bus and rail divisions continues to be strong, with record numbers of passengers using our services. This demonstrates the resilience of public transport during challenging economic times as passengers seek convenient and value-for-money alternatives to the private car.

"Our bus operations both in and outside London are performing well. Our sector-leading London business has seen growth due to new contracts commencing in the period, and our regional operations continue to make progress through initiatives such as smartcard technology.

"All three of our rail franchises are showing a strong performance. In particular our smallest franchise, London Midland, is achieving double digit growth in both passenger revenue and volumes".

Bus:

Our operations outside London have remained resilient in the period and are expected to achieve revenue growth (excluding acquisitions) of around 3.5% for the first half of the financial year. Passenger numbers (excluding acquisitions) have risen about 3% in the second quarter, helped, in part, by the continued rollout of smartcards. The increase in smartcard users has reduced the average yield per customer as passengers have taken advantage of the good value offered by period passes.

Total deregulated revenue (including the acquisition of Thames Travel) is expected to grow by over 5% in the first half of the financial year.

In London, mileage increased during the period as expected, due to new contracts beginning in the second quarter. Mileage growth of around 2% is expected for the first half. We expect a similar increase in revenue, despite lower QIC bonus payments compared to the first half of the last financial year.

Fuel costs remain fully hedged for this year at 41 pence per litre (ppl), in line with last year. We are now around 70% hedged for 2012/13 at an average of 49ppl. Rail:

Our rail division operates the Southern (including Gatwick Express), Southeastern (including High Speed) and London Midland franchises through our 65% owned subsidiary Govia.

All three franchises are performing well. We expect Southern's passenger revenue to increase by over 9% in the first half, and passenger journeys by around 3%. Southeastern is expected to see similar growth in passenger journeys, with revenue rising by around 9%. London Midland has been the outstanding performer, with passenger revenue up around 13% and passenger numbers by 10%.

Other items:

Cash management remains strong, with net debt expected to be around GBP60m at the half year, slightly lower than at the end of the last financial year. Net debt to EBITDA is also expected to remain comfortably within our target range of 1.5 to 2.5 times. Capital expenditure should be in line with expectations at around GBP35m for the first half and approximately GBP80m for the full year.

Outlook:

Although we remain cautious about the wider economic outlook, we continue to see robust performance across both divisions, leading us to expect Group operating profit for the full year to 30 June 2012 slightly ahead of our previous view.

Our cashflow and balance sheet remain strong, underpinning our dividend policy, providing support in the event of a downturn in the economy and allowing flexibility to pursue further value-adding opportunities.

[jmmoss] 10/12/2011 14:08

Everything seems to indicate a buy on this one; charts, balacance sheet, my computer program and trading update on the way...

[trt] 01/12/2011 09:56

Share price ticking up nicely again this morning

[trt] 24/11/2011 16:12

artibee

Such good value its fantastic - more shares equals more dividend payout next year !!!!!

[artibee] 24/11/2011 11:49

have got another order in at 1200. Is it madness!!

[trt] 17/11/2011 10:15

Have been topping up too good an opportunity to miss

[phil140158] 16/11/2011 17:21

Closed back above 1300, artibee. So let's hope not!

[artibee] 16/11/2011 15:18

got my order filled at 1293 - let's hope this doesn't mean support is broken and we're on another leg down! (usually the case with me.)

[keran] 03/11/2011 10:09

Still here and taking advantage of the dip - seeing some strength today

[phil140158] 02/11/2011 18:38

artibee- I fear you might. There isn't much to drive the share price up now, any P+ news from the G20 summit will see the high risk shares (oil, miners, banks etc) recovering some of their losses.

[artibee] 02/11/2011 16:53

trying to top up at 1300 - see if I'm lucky tomorrow!

[phil140158] 02/11/2011 09:04

Thanks, trt. I new it was about now and hoped it was today, given the 50p fall !!

[trt] 02/11/2011 08:51

Gone ex dividend today

[trt] 27/10/2011 11:08

Doesn't worry me. It's a solid company paying a fantastic dividend ( still time to grab a few more shares to bolster my final dividend payout )

[phil140158] 27/10/2011 09:53

It amazes me that GOG remains so unloved by the market, given the performance of the company and the yield.

[trt] 27/10/2011 09:11

Go-Ahead Group PLC

27 October 2011


The Go-Ahead Group plc 6(th) Floor,
1 Warwick Row, London SW1E 5ER
Telephone [phone] Facsimile 020
7821 3938

Press Release

27 October 2011

THE GO-AHEAD GROUP PLC

("GO-AHEAD" OR "THE GROUP")

INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT

ROBUST TRADING FOR FIRST QUARTER; FULL YEAR EXPECTATIONS UNCHANGED

Go-Ahead today announces its Interim Management Statement for the period from 3 July 2011 to 26 October 2011.

Overall:

Trading in the first quarter has been robust and our expectations for the full year to 30 June 2012 remain unchanged.

David Brown, Group Chief Executive of Go-Ahead, said:

"I am pleased to report growth across all our businesses. A range of factors, including the quality of our services and high motoring costs for car drivers, has attracted passengers to our services and we continue to perform well.

"Our bus services continue to perform robustly and our efforts to make travel simple and straightforward are being embraced by passengers. We are already witnessing significant take-up of our new smartcards, with over 200,000 passenger journeys a day now taking place using smartcards outside of London.

"Our rail businesses are performing strongly. We are also seeing some interesting passenger trends with our High Speed services in Kent and the Gatwick Express showing good growth - demonstrating that passengers want to use fast rail links.

"While we are encouraged by our performance in the first quarter, we remain suitably cautious about the medium term wider economic outlook."

Bus:

Outside London, our operations have remained resilient with the majority of growth coming from fare paying, rather than concessionary passengers, which has helped drive deregulated revenue up by over 4%. Passenger numbers are consistent with the same quarter last year.

In London, revenues are marginally up, with reductions in QIC bonus payments due to road works in central London, being largely offset by additional contract work. As expected, mileage was slightly down compared to the equivalent period last year but will increase as new contract wins, highlighted at the year end, begin in the second quarter.

During the period, the Competition Commission issued its provisional remedies in response to its inquiry into the UK local bus market. No fundamental changes to the structure of the bus market are proposed.

Rail:

Our rail division operates the Southern (including Gatwick Express), Southeastern and London Midland franchises through our 65% owned subsidiary Govia.

All three franchises performed well. Southern achieved a passenger revenue increase of around 8% in the quarter and passenger journeys were up approximately 3%. In Southeastern, passenger revenue growth was almost 9% and passenger journeys were around 2% above the same period last year. Our smallest franchise, London Midland, saw passenger revenue growth of over 12% and an increase in passenger numbers of around 9%.

Outlook:

While we are encouraged by our performance in the first quarter, our expectations for the full year to 30 June 2012 remain unchanged as we continue to be suitably cautious about the medium term wider economic outlook.

We continue to emphasise service quality. Our balance sheet and cashflow generation are strong and we remain focused on cost reduction and maintaining financial discipline.

ENDS For further information, please contact:


The Go-Ahead Group
David Brown, Group Chief Executive 020 7821 3920
Keith Down, Group Finance Director 020 7821 3922
John Shield, Group Corporate Affairs Director 020 7821 3927
Holly Birch, Investor Relations Manager 07837 612 661

Citigate Dewe Rogerson 020 7638 9571
Michael Berkeley
Chris Barrie
Angharad Couch

David Brown, Group Chief Executive and Keith Down, Group Finance Director will be hosting a conference call for analysts at 7.45am today. Please dial 0800 634 5205. A replay facility will be available for seven days.

GO-AHEAD

Go-Ahead is a leading UK public transport operator, providing high quality services in the bus and rail sectors. Employing around 22,000 people across the country, over one billion passenger journeys are undertaken on our services each year. We are committed to operating our companies in a safe, socially and environmentally responsible way and are proud to have been awarded the Carbon Trust Standard after taking action on climate change. In addition to the travelling public, our customers include the Department for Transport, Transport for London (TfL) and local authorities.

BUS

Go-Ahead is one of the UK's largest bus operators. With a fleet of around 3,900 buses, we carry, on average, around 1.7 million passengers every day. Our operations are focused on high density commuter markets. We have a strong presence in London, with around 21% market share, where we provide regulated services for TfL. We operate deregulated services in Oxford, East Anglia, the South East, Southern and North East England. We also have a yellow school bus joint venture in North America.

RAIL

Our rail division operates the Southern (including Gatwick Express), Southeastern and London Midland franchises through our 65% owned subsidiary Govia. It is the busiest rail operation in the UK, responsible for nearly 30% of all UK passenger rail journeys. In December 2009, Southeastern began operating the UK's first high speed domestic rail service between Kent and London, significantly reducing journey times.

[phillis] 24/10/2011 13:00

55.5p xd next week

[trt] 20/10/2011 08:47

Ok so GOG just missed out on the Greater Anglia franchise. Will take advantage of the slight dip today and top up again ahead of the record date for the 55.5p final dividend in November.

[trt] 17/10/2011 16:05

Press comments - Soaring cost of petrol and summer holidays mean passenger numbers on the railway are booming By Lee Boyce

Last updated at 11:52 AM on 17th October 2011


The number of people who are choosing to travel by train is on the up, with well over 1.3billion journeys expected to have been made by rail by the end of 2011, according to figures.

This will mean that railways are set for their busiest peacetime year since the 1920s, the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC) claims, with passenger numbers on the railway growing 5.3 per cent over the recent summer months.

There were 314.3million passenger journeys between July and September 2011, compared to 298.4million in the same period of 2010.
Train use: Railway passenger numbers are set to be their highest since the 1920s
It comes as petrol prices continue to put a strain on motorists' finances.

In September 2011, petrol prices remained 18 per cent higher than in the same month last year, compared to an average rail fare increase of 6.2 per cent since January, according to ATOC.
It costs motorists £6 for a gallon of unleaded petrol and political uncertainty in the Middle East has driven up the cost of Brent Crude oil even further this year.
This has led to more leisure travellers to switch from road to rail when taking summer breaks on day trips out with the family.

The AA has calculated that drivers have cut their petrol consumption by more than 15 per cent since the start of the recession.

[phil140158] 17/10/2011 15:57

Steady rise in the share price for the past few trading days, trt. Retreating a bit now, but looks as if it will end in the P+ which is pretty good on a day like today.

[trt] 17/10/2011 15:44

I wonder if the announcement regarding Greater Anglia franchise could come as early as tomorrow !!!!!

[trt] 12/10/2011 11:04

Must be very close now to the announcement regarding the Greater Anglia franchise !!!

If Go Ahead win the franchise could see a big jump in the share price to £16 ??