Globus Maritime Share Discussion Threads

[martincc] 19/5/2008 14:18

BDI up another 250, now 11709

[domwilliams] 19/5/2008 11:07

4 trades (that I can see so far this am) totalling 8,000 shares and - WHOOSH! Is this so tightly held that these trades can have such an effect, or can we expet to see some large delayed trades later today?

[domwilliams] 16/5/2008 14:48

Dry bulk market in 'riot mode'



"THE dry bulk market is officially in "riot mode" this week, according to one shipbroker, as freight rates climb to record highs.

"An Oslo broker said the "flying" capesize market had rubbed off on the panamaxes and that further rises are expected this week. "

[slapdash] 15/5/2008 17:17

opportunity here is clearly chartering out in this year and next at these new high rates... as they are relatively unchartered:

Fleet Deployment
The current charter coverage for 2008 and 2009 is 63% and 21% of the available days respectively

So they will be a big beneficiary of high rates

slap

[robsy2] 15/5/2008 10:25

Its certainly up today!!!

[slapdash] 14/5/2008 15:20

Am surprised this isn't up more.... looks like a good risk/reward play.. we shall see.....

especially as BDI at 10,649 and possibly looking to set a new all-time high...

Slap

[alter ego] 14/5/2008 11:24

Someone was wondering what rates the vessels on spot are getting so this may help - see page 17


at the time the Lake was at $42250, Ocean at $50000 and River at $60000 - might be worth feeding into your projections

[courant] 14/5/2008 10:50

Absolutely. It's just a question of time-frame!

Courant

[slapdash] 14/5/2008 10:27

Courant - I suppose you could see it both ways though. Yes GLBS has the greatest possibility to take advantage of current high frieght rates due to lack of forward chartering. However, you could also say that the other companies have a great possibility for an earnings uplift when they come off previously low charters - as long as charters stay strong.

Slap

[courant] 14/5/2008 08:49

Haven't had a close look but, yes, they are cheap. Of the 3 (GLBS, GOC, HCL) I favour GLBS mostly because they have the biggest opportunity to take advantage of the spike in shipping rates. Plus they have the youngest, most flexible, and cheapest to run fleet. And, the management look the most switched on and experienced. But you wouldn't do bad with any of these, they're riding the same wave :-)

Courant

[slapdash] 14/5/2008 08:39

Courant - does appear positive and looking at their ship bookings for this year and next the % booked up is much lower than rivals so they should be a major beneficiary of the current rate strength..

also have a look at the below bloomberg interview (4 minutes). The CEO of BMS is basically saying he is doubtfull that these new ship yards in China can deliver as lots have forward sold ships to get finance to build their yards but with rising steel etc their contracts are no longer profitable plus the rising cost of financing..



also if you have a minute what do you make of HCL appears to be cheapest shipping stock on the market but I am just wondering what the catch is.....

Slap

[courant] 14/5/2008 08:30

Looks a very good trading update. $23m net revenue is on track for ~100p EPS and a 10-12% yield this year. Vessel Operating Expenses seem to have risen a bit though, which is not so welcome but not unexpected either (and seems down to additional dry docking, which must have also impacted revenues - expect a better Q2 in that case). The new financing facility is also a bonus.

I'm glad they're looking to get their ships back on charters in due course - basically, if rates stay firm for the next few months and GLBS managed to fix these 3 and secure decent rates for the other 3 coming off charter, then 2009 looks incredibly attractive, with eps and yield way north of 150p/16%.

Slap, interesting article about the credit crunch impact on shipping! I guess we'll have to see how it pans out.

A happy holder,

Courant

[slapdash] 13/5/2008 22:26

SHIPPING IS A MAJOR BENEFICIARY OF THE CREDIT CRUNCH:



FROM A BLOOMBERG ARTICLE:

The biggest shipbuilding boom in history collided with the largest credit-market losses ever, undermining forecasts for a plunge in freight rates.

As much as $14 billion in ship orders is threatened by cancellations and delays, equal to 94 percent of annual revenue at Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., the largest shipbuilder. Tightening credit markets mean lenders demand a bigger deposit and shorter terms for financing, said Tobias Backer, the head of shipping for the Americas at Fortis, a merchant banker.

The loss or delay in deliveries of about 250 cargo ships, or 10 percent of orders, will tighten the supply of vessels and support rates when demand from China and India for everything from soybeans to coal has never been greater. Based on the current orders for 2,561 new cargo ships, shipping rates are expected to decline 56 percent during the next three years, futures markets show.

``Cancellations would certainly be bullish for rates because the ships won't be there,'' Natasha Boyden, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York, said.

At stake is not only shipping rates but also the profits of shipping companies in an industry that has outperformed the market amid a U.S. economic slowdown due to China's appetite for raw materials. The Bloomberg Dry Ships Index, which includes 12 shipping companies, has gained 69 percent in the past year, compared with a loss of 7.8 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. STX Pan Ocean Co., a Korean shipping company, gained 62 percent in the last year; DryShips Inc., an Athens-based shipper, has more than doubled.

The stocks have been propelled by shipping rates, which reached a five-month high on May 9 and are 7.3 percent below the record reached on Nov. 13.

Rates Rise
Freight rates have risen as fewer vessels have been delivered. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of rates, has risen 58 percent in the last year as an index tracking the number of cargo ships under construction has fallen 21 percent in that time, using Lloyd's Registry Fairplay data.

Tighter credit, brought on by the $323 billion in writedowns the world's banks have disclosed since June because of the collapsing mortgage markets, is taking a toll on the record level of ship orders that was expected to increase capacity and rein in rates. The price of steel, which has risen 47 percent since January, and the instability of less established shipyards are adding to the uncertainty.

Sophocles Zoullas, chief executive of New York-based Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc., toured shipyards in China and South Korea in late April, and said he has heard of 100 cancellations this year, enough ships to carry as much as 18 million tons of coal at a time.

[courant] 13/5/2008 19:38

dom,

Those 3 ships have been on the spot market ever since their charters expired: they should have been generating a significant amount of revenue given the BDI has been high ever since Jan.

Looking forward to the Q1 update!

Courant

[slapdash] 13/5/2008 19:24

domwilliams - good stuff... I think the key thing here for me is that the dividend is so great... say about 12% this year and then 16% next year...

so if the stock price goes down after the dividend then the P/E ratio falls to ridiculous levels...

Slap

[domwilliams] 13/5/2008 15:45

The FD has just confirmed to me that a Q1 update will be issued tomorrow morning. Hopefully GLBs' progress will continue, and we'll have good visibility for the year ahead.

My spreadsheet of charters shows that three charters were expiring in Q1, so hopefully we will have an update on new (higher) charters for the Lake, Ocean & River Globes.

[robsy2] 12/5/2008 14:42

um ditto GOC!

[slapdash] 12/5/2008 13:42

on the move it seems.... next stop £5..... slap

[kinbasket] 09/5/2008 08:30

It's divi day today though isn't it. 7.2p ??

The last of the small divis. This time next year the divi will be somewhat larger.

[slapdash] 09/5/2008 08:08

well no ruddy Q1 dudes.... oh well slap

[slapdash] 08/5/2008 09:41

oh my mistake.. so they don't RNS it they just release it on their website.... a strange attiitude....slap

[domwilliams] 08/5/2008 09:26

slap - read from post 102 onwards, where darlo said that GLBS had confirmed a Q1 update this week.

They certainly do issue quarterly numbers as I have a spreadsheet full of them ! No rubbish talk here - perhaps you can provide your estimates as to the Q1 update ? I gave my revenue expectations in post 103 but no-one has challenged them. Am I on the right track?

[darlocst] 08/5/2008 09:07

Slap - They DO release quarterlies.

See press release dated Nov 15 07


I have an email from the CFO last week confirming that they would release their Q1 results sometime this week.

They might not RNS it so keep checking their website.

"less rubbish talk more research" indeed!

[slapdash] 08/5/2008 08:51

ur donwilliams - they don't release quarterlies!!!!!!!!!!!! Why did you say the quarterly results should be out.... doh... basic research to look at the RNS's shows they don't do quarterlies... less rubbish talk more research

slap

[slapdash] 08/5/2008 07:56

so no q1 update... I guess that if we don't get quarterlies next update will be Sept???

Slap