Globaldata Share Discussion Threads

[wisecat] 27/9/2007 18:41

SOUNDS GOOD TO ME.THAT WILL UPSET THE SHORTS
NOW A NICE GLASS OF MALBEC... CHEERS

[jollychappy] 27/9/2007 05:45

Following H1 results, this is still THE stock to buy, despite the recent strong performance and high rating. Why?

• Despite the recent problems in the US Gaming market, Datacash still managed to post H1 earnings growth of 5%. This proves that the non-US businesses are doing extremely well. For example, transaction growth outside the US was 30-35% in the period.

• This company is a major CASH MACHINE. Net cash increased from £15.3m pounds to £19.4m in just 6 months.

• Operating margins are rising quickly due to the inspired decision to merge with Proc Cyber. The "value-added" services that Proc Cyber offer strengthen the earnings quality of the whole group.

• Brokers are still upgrading forecasts. Datacash can still deliver c.25% earnings growth going forwards that more than justifies current valuation. The only risk to earnings would be a marked slowdown in e-commerce transactions – not a significant concern today.

[scburbs] 26/9/2007 10:29

The most telling factor on DATA is the half on half progression, although progression is probably not the right word!

Turnover

H2 2006 - £11.43m
H1 2007 - £9.86m (-14%)

Operating profit

H2 2006 - £5.552m
H1 2007 - £4.888m (-12%)

I believe this is the first time that DATA has no shown quarter on quarter progression. Also indicative that there is a significant challenge to show growth in H2 2007 given the lost business.

[capntubs] 26/9/2007 08:40

Well done on your profit Ken - you've ridden Data beautifully!

[farnesbarnes] 25/9/2007 17:19

Trades over NMS don't have to be declared until EOD.

Don't trust ADVFN figures - they are indicative only. As are they buys / sells.

Edit - don't trust they 25,000 buy today. WT suggests trade between mm's.

[kenbachelor] 25/9/2007 13:05

I've got a bit of a mystery, if anyone can explain
At 9.42 this morning I sold 25,000 at 260.5p but it still hasn't appeared on the trades screen. There is a sale at 261p which might fit the time, but it was deleted and has now been replaced some some time later.

[capntubs] 25/9/2007 08:58

Below is the Chart for the period around iterims 12 months ago released on 5th September 2006.

At that time the results showed an increase in adjusted earnings per share of 58% from 2.43 to 3.86p the share price rose on the day to value the company then at 223p/share.

12 months on adjusted eps has risen 5.4% from 3.86 to 4.07, eps growth is therefore 10% of what is was 12 months ago and the share price is 16.6% higher at 260p.



free stock charts from www.advfn.com

[woracle] 25/9/2007 08:38

Anyone decipher the year on year comparatives for the 2 businesses ? Am always suspicious when they try hide it.

[farnesbarnes] 25/9/2007 08:36

"Significant wins in Retail and Travel sectors".

Two sectors which will suffer over the next few months.

Retail? Christmas? Credit crunch?

[scburbs] 25/9/2007 07:55

Don't forget ProCyber is in the comparatives only for 1 month!

Basic eps down from 3.41p to 1.06p
Adjusted eps up just 5% to 4.07p from 3.86p

Last year ProCyber generated £1.182m turnover and £520k operating profit. If you extrapolate that over 6 months it should be £7m turnover and £3.12m operating profit.

Add this to last years pre-ProCyber business and you get £10.792m turnover and £4.48m operating profit.

The outturn was £9.9m turnover and £4.89m operating profit. I can't see much progression here.

ProcCyber performed spectacularly in H2 last year so difficult to see how they can match that performance in H2 this year.

Is a P/E of over 30 right for a business that is running to stay still with adjusted eps up just 5% and massively hard comparatives in H2?

[huwrayhenry] 25/9/2007 07:33

overall summary ok, but read the small print.
any one else smell rat.
hh

[huwrayhenry] 13/9/2007 12:04

and i too!

holding a largest short.

get down.

[scburbs] 09/9/2007 09:24

Those who have done well holding DATA might want to take a view as to whether to hold on results day (25th September). Perhaps a strategy of selling and repurchasing post results if there are no problems would be wise and would lock in the good profits you have made.

I am short and expect that the interims may disappoint at the eps level. I may be wrong, but I just wouldn't want to hold this one long across results day.

Current share price 265.5p
Market cap £243m
Historic eps/PE 8p/33
Prospective eps/PE (current year) 8.63p/31

Why is it a good short?

45m new shares were issued at 136.5p in May 2006 to acquire Proc Cyber for £61.3m. The current value of those shares is £119.5m. At the same time the number of options were doubled as this represented 50% of the share capital at the time at the vendor wanted the right to retain 50%.

Wow, the share price has nearly doubled since. Was that a really good acquisition?

Unfortunately not!

"Proc Cyber is a provider of risk management, payment processing, payment out solutions and financial reconciliation services predominantly to the online gaming markets"



Investec estimated that post the acquisition US gaming accounted for 30% of group sales and 40-45% of profits! As this is referring to the combined group the proportions in the acquired business would have been higher.

The share price promptly plunged from 220p to around 130p in response to the Safe Port Act. This was the company's statement on this.



However, the current share price is 21% higher than the pre-Safe Port price. This would represent a massive increase in sales and profits of the remaining businesses if the rating pre-Safe Port was correct.

What do the directors make of all of this?

This one is pretty clear! Immediately post the issue of the final results for last year (which were good as largely unaffected by Safe Port).

18 April David Bailey sold 100k at 247p
18 April Andrew Dark sold 10k at 247p
19 April Gavin Breeze sold 1.5m at 242p

No acquisitions other than low priced option exercising. No substantial sales until shortly after AGM statement at the end of June which said:

"The Group has seen good growth in both revenue and transaction volumes so far this year. Revenues lost from the fallout in the US are continuing to be replaced as our customers expand their operations in other countries."



6 July Ashley Head sold 1.2m at 240p.

A strategically important sale as Ashley Head was the 50% shareholder, but by selling these shares he now holds less than 50%.

The AGM statement is no doubt accurate, but possible paints a misleading picture as the acquired business was only included for a small part of the comparative period. This good growth is now being spread across twice as many shares (just how good is that growth?). The reference to continuing to replace also implies they may not be fully replaced yet!

Next news is interims on 25 September. Turnover growth and profit growth should be superficially attractive as the acquisition wasn't in the comparatives (other than for a very short period). However, the massive share issue will hold up earnings progress. The main effect of Safe Port will be felt in H2 this year as the business performed spectacularly in H2 largely due to strength in US gaming. As indicated above the growth required to replace this business is substantial.

A business that was worth £2.20 per share before losing 40-45% of profits less than 1 year ago is now worth £2.655 per share. The directors have made bullish comments interspersed with subtle references to the impact of the lost business whilst raising millions in share sales. To me the share price looks set to disappoint when reality start to kick in. Also the share price has held up well within recent turbulence so a very nice entry point for anyone wanting to short.

DATA is a solid business with good prospects, however, IMO there is a need for the share price to adjust to reflect the reality of the impact of Safe Port.

[topcar] 07/9/2007 16:41

Well this is trading on a PE of over 50, and thats going on there last results,

The buyers must be expecting sensational results, or its being marked up for a exceptional fall !

[kenbachelor] 06/9/2007 18:52

Good luck to you. I'm using my profits to help with my losses on BARC.

[wisecat] 06/9/2007 18:49

I AM, JUST OPENED A NICE BOTTLE OF ARGENTINIAN MALBEC. CHEERS

[kenbachelor] 06/9/2007 16:58

It takes a lot to get this thread excited

[topcar] 29/8/2007 13:25

i see PRTY revenue down 68% from 06, due to US withdrawel.