Global Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[jimarilo] 05/9/2018 09:13

Whilst a Cormorant success would derisk the area in terms there is oil, which we already know in any case, but greater volumes are the prize

GBP's prospects are in deeper water and a totally different type of play, so short term it may effect the SP, but would not effect the prospects

I posted a link here before regarding the N/sea and 200 wells it took before a significant discovery, with 1960's technology

Currently Cormorant is the 17th well to be drilled in Namibia, the area the size of the N/sea or Gulf of Mexico

The industry will find it and seem very determined to do so

My guess there will be corporate action before the Cormorant results and we will be taken out by a Major or AEC will take an interest in the company, could even buy the Peters 40% and then farm down PEL29, as they did with PCL

News is not far away imo

[chopsy] 05/9/2018 08:47

I'll spell it out. If Cormorant fails (15% COS) how will that affect our share price?

[jimarilo] 05/9/2018 07:11

African Oil Hunt Returns as Majors Seek to Unlock Vast Reserves



AEC won't have it all their own way, there will be others

[jimarilo] 04/9/2018 23:03

From GBP's website re: Geology......Rift basin is the key

"The scale of the extensional faulting in PEL0029 which extends up into the upper Cretaceous section create the classic Horst and Graben structural architecture, as seen in the majority of the world’s rift basins. It is this structural style which incorporates plays from late Syn-rift to the Aptian Carbonate reservoirs, which we believe sets Global's acreage apart from other licences in Namibia."

and from the link in the previous post AEC favour two play types and the later being "Rift Basins"

"Africa Energy aims to replicate their team’s past success in two play types: submarine fans seen in Block 11B/12B offshore South Africa and PEL 37 offshore Namibia, as well as the rift basin seen in Block 2B offshore South Africa. The company’s team has had success with both play types and is focusing on near offshore exploration, given oil discoveries previously made in Equatorial Guinea and Ghanaian waters."

The new venture strategy is technically driven based on play types familiar to the company. Like others looking to gain acreage, Africa Energy is also seeking good commercial terms in politically stable areas.

“We’re trying to get into opportunities early where we have to put down minimal cash up front for exploration, where we’re negotiating directly with governments to get access to a good license, shoot 3-D seismic with a well option or alternatively negotiate with industry partners that already have an attractive license to help them identify prospects and drill a well.”

It all seems to fit very nicely, time will tell

[jimarilo] 04/9/2018 22:53

This a great read, 4 pages on Africa Energy Corp

Came out in March, not sure how I missed it

Oil Search: Africa Energy Journeys Into New Frontier



I have had two emails from them now, confirming they are looking at new opportunities in Namibia and would like to complete a deal before the Cormorant results

[jimarilo] 04/9/2018 20:58

Sorry, but you lost me ? ;-)

[chopsy] 04/9/2018 20:02

Why not wait for the 85% COF and pick up the bits for a song for the next drill? Or are we to get out before TD and risk success? Probably that would be best or at least a top slice to preserve initial stake.

[oilretire] 04/9/2018 19:46

UK independent Tullow Oil has spudded the Cormorant exploration well in the Walvis Basin offshore Namibia and highlighted by us as a well to watch in our ‘Exploration Watch: 2018 exploration wells’ report. The well is targeting resources of 125mmbbls in a basin slope Cenomanian Cretaceous fan covering 120km2. If successful, the well would open up a potential 1bnbbls in other fans for the company together with the rest of the basin for the industry, where majors have been building a position in recent years, most recently with ExxonMobil’s 30% farm in to AziNam’s PEL 44 licence immediately to the south of Cormorant. The well is one of two high profile wells to be drilled in Namibia this year, with Chariot Oil & Gas due to drill its Prospect S well from mid-October and also covered in our report.

Cormorant is expected to be a relatively simple well to drill, with minimal casing strings required so that, with current lower rig rates, it can be drilled for $35-$45m. The prospect is a turbidite identified on 3D seismic and is a stratigraphic trap that relies on a stratigraphic pinch out at the feeder. As such it has a higher geological risk, reflected in the company’s estimated COS of 15% . One of the fans that would be de-risked by success here is Osprey, which sits in PEL 30 to the north of Cormorant and in which Tullow holds a 15% WI. Osprey has been independently assessed by Gustavson for operator Eco Atlantic (32.5%) to hold gross prospective resources of 245.5mmbls.

On completion of the Cormorant well, the Ocean Rig Poseidon will move south to PEL 71 to drill Prospect S for Chariot Oil & Gas. Prospect S is targeting 459mmbbls in three separate Cretaceous sands draped over a volcanic structure. The presence of source and reservoir was established in Namibia in 2013 by HRT in the Wingat and Murombe wells (located in the PEL 82 licence, now operated by Galp and partnered by ExxonMobil) but these remain the key risks for Prospect S, which has been independently assessed by NSAI to have a COS of 29%. If successful, Chariot plans to move the drillship to drill Prospect W, which is targeting 284mmbbls

[jimarilo] 04/9/2018 16:00

All this time waiting and some more so than others, it could all be down to the next 2 1/2 weeks or sooner

Fingers crossed

[jimarilo] 04/9/2018 12:18

So, maybe a deal needs to be tied up before then, in case of a discovery increasing the value of the surrounding areas

Of course AEC and Garret Soden are on the inside regarding Cormorant

Off topic..ish, I see Transocean have taken out Ocean Rig, the owners of the Poseidon drillship

[emptyend] 04/9/2018 10:23

....I assume that 34 days is to dry hole TD........and it'll be about 25+ days before even the crew know anything useful.

[jimarilo] 04/9/2018 07:09

Drilling starts at Cormorant, 34 days to completion





Garrett Soden, President and CEO of Africa Energy, commented, “There has recently been a resurgence of interest in the Namibian offshore region from oil majors, and the Cormorant-1 well has the potential to open a significant new play fairway.”

[jimarilo] 03/9/2018 17:06

Waiting on news

[daar] 03/9/2018 13:57

Volume has disappeared

[jimarilo] 03/9/2018 11:26

Edit: better link

Ocean Rig’s drillship set to drill Tullow’s well offshore Namibia



If a suitor wants a deal closed before the Cormorant result they have around 30-34 days

So would expect something before then imo

[jimarilo] 02/9/2018 07:06

Eoin O'Cinneide
31 Aug 2018 10:49 GMT Updated 31 Aug 2018 10:51 GMT
Share: E-mail
Tullow Oil is ready to sink its latest wildcat, with an Ocean Rig-owned drillship in position to drill on the Cormorant prospect.

A spokesman for the Anglo-Irish independent said that the Cormorant-1 well on its operated PEL 37 will be spudded in the next week.

Edit: looks like the Poseidon is finally moving out 11.05am

must be Cormorant location:

"ATD: 2018-09-02 12:16 ETA: 2018-09-03 06:00"

[jimarilo] 31/8/2018 16:44

I have emailed them in the past (Spencer) and had a reply from him, but no reply since the Mandate has been removed from the website

I imagine they are well versed in these situations to make no comments

Nice couple of buys at the end, same buyer £10k in all

Cormorant spud tomorrow and you never know, maybe even some news next week

[winnet] 31/8/2018 14:38

has anyone actually tried calling Stellar? Or is it not that simple?

[jimarilo] 30/8/2018 21:49

Thanks Chopsy,

Yes I am holding a few now, 1.5% of the free float (no leverage), added some more yesterday

The company have not been promoting it's self to retail, just the industry, hence the low profile, which has turned out to be a positive for anyone building a sizeable stake.

It has turned out to be a longer process than I first envisaged. It seems the company presentation back in May, at the Africa E&P Summit London, has been a turning point. This has not left a lot of time for a deal to be worked out ahead of the Cormorant spud, so target must be before the end of September ahead of the result.

This is the target for AEC to close a deal in Namibia,, as per an email reply from their CEO. I am sure there are others with the same strategy

Again with 6 + wells to be drilled in Namibia in the next 12 to 18 months and a discovery just a matter of time. The pressure is on the suitor to close out a deal before a discovery increases the ask for PEL29 and a 3.66bln barrel prospect. Well over 3 times the size of Tullows PEL37

I think the removal of the GBP mandate from the Stellar website is significant

Time will tell

[chopsy] 30/8/2018 17:52

Bring it on! And thanks for your informed posts and perseverance, Jim, I guess you own a few here?

[jimarilo] 30/8/2018 09:57

This the Cannacord note from the other day.

The scale of the potential that has attracted these companies is difficult to
assess from available public information. However, the presence of
companies as large as Exxon,together with certain competent person’s reports (CPRs), and various company presentations, point to a multi-billionbarrel
potential across Namibia .

Individual licences offshore Namibia are outsized compared with those in the
North Sea. For example, the Tullow operated PEL 37, the focus for the next
Namibian exploration well, is almost 90 times the size of an average UK block,
the equivalent of almost three UKCS quadrants. The Chariot operated PEL 71
has a very similar size.



No mention of GBP in name, But this line is a good fit "together with certain competent person’s reports (CPRs), and various company presentations, point to a multi-billion barrel potential across Namibia"

If Tullows PEL37 is almost 90 times the size of an average UK block, that makes GBP's PEL29 over 270 times the size

GBP is certainly under the radar, but that will not always be the case, the herd will arrive at some point imo

[jimarilo] 30/8/2018 09:23

Lets not forget Serica, who back in 2013 were given $50m (£38m) by BP for a 30% interest

BP then decided to walk away, possibly due to the effects of Deepwater Horizon


The $50m included back costs and 3D seismic

£38m would be 18p

[jimarilo] 29/8/2018 16:20

Maybe trying to get some sellers, only sell today was the 50k

Still 2.65p to buy online and can only get 10k

[winnet] 29/8/2018 15:37

bid dropped to 2.50. Strange given the volume...