Global Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[encarter] 22/8/2018 16:50

15% free carry would be my guess.

[jimarilo] 22/8/2018 16:25

SQZ ticking down is sanction related regarding Iran

And well you know it

[joestalin] 22/8/2018 15:18

GBP share price is creeping up, but SQZ share price is creeping down.

Maybe this is GBP related rather than Namibia related?

Time will tell.

[jimarilo] 22/8/2018 14:03

I imagine there will be competition as there has never been such an appetite in Namibia, which may help that situation

Time will tell

[cashandcard] 22/8/2018 13:43

Jimarilo,


Thanks. I don't doubt those numbers. However, I'm not sure we can compare them entirely. GBP are in 'need' of a partner to move to the next stage, otherwise they face a funding call to get themselves there. Any potential partner knows this and will use it to their advantage.

I am keen to know who this European major co is.


Cash

[jimarilo] 22/8/2018 12:53

@cashandcard

Africa Oil Corp paid $7.7m for 10% interest in PEL37, which has nothing like the potential of GBP's PEL29

On those figures and we gave 50% away that would be £30m



I think a clean take out, will be more likely, a Major would prefer this option than messing around with a micro cap and bring it's own deep pocket partner in

[fillipe] 22/8/2018 11:44

I reckon the bottom line here at GBP is that it can only go higher from where were now are.

I'll be delighted to be able to again sell in the 16p's of 2011.....very sweet days.

f

[cashandcard] 22/8/2018 11:43

I agree with Neo, they will have to 1) give away a significant chunk to get the 3D done or 2) dilute heavily to get it done themselves. Having said that, I think there is still considerable value to be had here as the marketcap in no way reflects the industry activity in the area. There is plenty of time until anything gets drilled here.



Cash

[jimarilo] 22/8/2018 08:51

This link has been post a while ago, but very relevant

Serica looking for $30m/£23m for a percentage of their 85% holding in PEL 47 Namibia

For that sort of money (11p) GBP could be bought out clean



Worth noting that GBP has several prospects at 3.66bln barrels, but Gemsbok is huge at 1.75bln barrels bigger than anything at PEL 47 and overall prospects PEL29 still comes out on top

[jimarilo] 22/8/2018 06:07

Shell obviously not going to use the Poseidon, as they are only going to drill one well and come back for an appraisal well the following year

Who is the European Major that has a LOI, for 2 wells + 2 options using the Poseidon, following Chariot ? and what block are they going to drill ?

The letter of intent could be for booking a drill slot and securing a near 80% discounted day rate currently and all being subject to closing a deal ??

Ocean rigs results page 6, shows Poseidon contracts, chart shows a start before September



"The Company has entered into a Letter of Intent with a European Major Oil Company for a firm two-well program plus two optional wells, for drilling offshore West Africa. The contract is expected to commence in direct continuation of the program with Chariot Oil & Gas Limited in the fourth quarter of 2018 and will be performed by the Ocean Rig Poseidon, and is subject to the negotiation and execution of definitive documentation and other approvals"

Not giving much away and can't even say Namibia, but page 6 confirms that at least

[oilretire] 21/8/2018 21:46

NG, didn't notice the NB was in there too.

[jimarilo] 21/8/2018 21:09

Could be, Noble Globetrotter II or Noble Bully II ?

[oilretire] 21/8/2018 20:39

This was the link you posted Jim xxi

[jimarilo] 21/8/2018 19:27

Tullow have 15% cos currently, but finding source at Cormorant will de-risk all prospects near by, including GBP's PEL29

As Yasrub has said, players have been moving in ahead of a discovery, as a discovery will significantly increase prospect valuation

This is the strategy of Africa Energy Corp who are looking to increase their foot print and want to be early in frontier regions so that they are not paying a premium (from an email reply post 6308)

So expect a move from AEC fairly soon imo

[yasrub] 21/8/2018 19:01

I think the key to GBP is that early movers seem to be in vogue for Namibia. At GBP's current valuation it surely makes it a target for those looking to increase their presence or to enter the area. The kind of companies becoming involved would hardly sniff at a take out of £20m to get the 85%. The risk/reward seems weighted to moving early before potential drilling success. It really comes down to whether the Peters holding 40% get too greedy.

[pakenham] 21/8/2018 18:21

Chance of success is higher than that neo and 3D will give even better chance of finding the sweet spot and succes from Tullow or Eco or Char or Exxon - two of which are drilling in September and October - will really up the the anti. Cash = to mcap approx so upside of over half a trillion $ plus will probably mean a T/O from exxon at a guess for multiples of share price imo.

[neo26] 21/8/2018 17:41

However they are up 33% from recent lows, that is positive.

[neo26] 21/8/2018 17:40

Tullow and char will be drilling near globals asset, the concern i see is that global need a jv partner to do 3d survey also. At present the cos is 11%, which is low.Global will need to give away a large chunk of their working interest, global are years away from drilling.

[daar] 21/8/2018 17:04

A #JOG type rise would be lovely!!

[jimarilo] 21/8/2018 16:02

5p only puts us @ £10m

The Peters (BoD)hold 40% and will not do a deal for anything like £10m

10p would be in the right ball park, PEL29 has several prospects. Gemsbok being the main one 1.75bln barrels and 3.66bln overall mid case

[daar] 21/8/2018 14:08

3.25p purely based on TA and if the news lands then 5p could easily come

[jimarilo] 21/8/2018 12:49

GBP getting a mention here

[gaddy88] 21/8/2018 10:01

Worth a read.https://gallery.mailchimp.com/c8ce19146fdeb5b5892b7679b/files/e4a7aad0-5019-4113-a4a9-b459e60822c8/Cannacord_Genuity_Namibia.pdf

[jimarilo] 21/8/2018 09:39

We are looking at a buy out for 10p at least

4.3p just to equal where we were on the CPR release

As has been said before AEC looking to complete a Namibian deal before the Cormorant spud/results as a discovery will push the price up. That was from the CEO and am sure many other suitors are thinking the same strategy

[daar] 21/8/2018 09:33

A sniff of good news and will one bag easily