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Global Pet. Share Discussion Threads
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|Hope you're right ohisay. That would give us something to get excited about.
Same argument applies to the Italian offshore but maybe to a lesser extent. If there's a discovery nearby it may give GBP a boost.|
Presumably Africa who know TLW well from Kenya wouldnt be doing this if they didnt believe TLW are close to naming a drill date (they are bound to do it by end March '17 acc to their stated intentions earlier in the year) and with oil seemingly firmly over 50$ the drill now seems more or less a certainty
So its back to plan A for GBP then (the old "piggy back" strategy involving doing more or less SFA for the last 5 years)
[It's Italian offshore isn't worth the proverbial in my book - a cynic might think they've been coached by NOP who turned that into an artform over many years.]|
|The key is actually the oil price. If the Saudis are correct in expecting the oil price to recover during 2017 (as they have said, in the context of their plans to float a piece of Aramco) then industry interest in large deep water opportunities in politically-safe areas may well increase significantly.............and on that basis GBP should at the minimum close the discount to cash over the next 6 months or so.|
|Some of us will need a lot of convincing.|
|GBP had nothing before this A came out, now they have a real chance. If they are lucky with the options awarded in the Adriatic they could generate real interest from some of the big boys. Anyone that bought in at 2.5 shouldn't worry as this share is easily worth that price now.|
|I thought that a possibility 3-5 years ago......but not in the current oil price environment!|
|My worry was a merger with Tower, who are even better than GBP at destroying shareholder value !|
|That's the central point re the investment case. Suppose, for example, that a seismic company shoots 3D in the Adriatic and earns a stake in the blocks....and that 3D shows that the 100 sq km lead has become a drillable prospect in 500m of water (yes...fairly deep). Given the operating difficulty and risks of many other hydrocarbon-prone areas, what level of interest might there be in a large prospect just off the heel of Italy?And, in that event, what might GBP be worth? Looking miles ahead of course and making massive guesses based on very little info etc..... but, still, GBP's acreage in Italy and Namibia is just option money.|
|Finally things are looking a bit more positive here. The fact there are some big players operating in this region should make it easier to farm-out, or sell, this asset. And if there is a big discovery nearby GBP should benefit. However with a £3.7M market cap and net cash of $10M at end of June still absolutely no value being assigned to any of GBP's assets.|
|it is looking likely that today will be the highest volume day in GBP for over three years....|
|so 4p next week|
|...in fact the free float is around 110mn, with 45.3% in the hands of three holders:http://www.globalpetroleum.com.au/investors/major-shareholders|
|....worth noting that 1% of the free float in GBP has traded in the first hour of trading. Free float is under 120mn....and I suspect a big chunk of that has been held quite long-term.|
|Who extract a digit? To do what?|
|4 Directors gone at TRP I see.Merger with GBP always had downside with so many mouths to feed .
At 2.5m£ market cap TRP has never been cheaper and Directors here already larger stakes after heavily discounted fund raising.
Will they finally extract their digits I wonder.|
|Interesting news this morning. i've paid little attention to the Italian acreage, but I can't recall them having said before now that they have a lead that extends to 100sqkm........which is pretty substantial.If there is multi-client seismic planned in the area, that may well lead to pretty modest cash costs for refining their understanding of the area?Whatever the case, there won't be much loose stock around for anyone to take a position so, if interested, perhaps get in sooner rather than later?Cash on b/s still around 4p per share.......|
|Quite. The other thing that could have a big effect here is Tullow are aiming to drill a well offshore Namibia in early 2017. No news on that as yet though.|
|....and just a reminder on scale: there are at least three prospects on the Namibian blocks, each of which are reckoned to be in the 1bn+ bbl area:http://www.globalpetroleum.com.au/operations/namibiaNow they may well need more work before they would be considered drillable by a major, but a major could currently take over the whole company for, say, 6p per share and shoot 3D seismic over the Namibian blocks for a total net expenditure (including the acquisition and the seismic) of perhaps $12mn?....which doesn't sound a great deal for obtaining potential control and drilling options over 3bn+ bbls of oil in a rising oil price environment?|
|Its worth considering where we are, given the length of time we've been waiting for a deal:1. there is still 4p per share in cash2. two years ago they wrote down the Namibian asset by $11mn, due to drilling disappointments nearby and the weak oil price. They have since done more interpretation work there and, in any case, have different plays. If the oil price is on the cusp of recovery (which the Saudis think will be largely completed by 2018), then it may make sense for a partner to come in now and drill before services prices rise again.3. the Peters are not getting any younger and have some significant cash tied up still, which is slowly being bled away4. In terms of international risking of oil and gas assets, I'd suggest that South-West African offshore has moved up the pecking order relative to the Middle East, EU and USA in the last year or so.It still remains the case that oil and gas financing is difficult. But if next month's OPEC meeting is bullish (as some now suspect it may be) then a deal to buy the whole company and drill Namibia next year doesn't seem impossible to me......but then I haven't seen the details of the prospects.|
|You can't say the directors are bleeding the company dry!
But many do. This has been going on for rather a long time.|
|JoeStalin3 Oct '16 - 11:59 - 5525 of 5526 1 0
I think that Mr Market knows exactly what they are doing.
Peter Blakey has 41.5 million shares (approx 20.5%). Annual salary is $37,000
Peter Taylor has 39.5 million shares (approx 19.5%). Annual salary is $37,000
You can't say the directors are bleeding the company dry! In fact they are the biggest losers.
As an aside the £/$ exchange rate is doing us a favour here.|
|the cash will dribble away
no interest in namibia or italy at present prices
they need new blue sky|
|I think that Mr Market knows exactly what they are doing.|
|No comment on results last week?
Admittedly not much to report. We may have some 2D sesimic to look forward to next year on Namibia. And same on the Italian licences if they ever get awarded (I hope not). Exciting stuff indeed.
The current share price implies Mr Market thinks they don't know what they are doing.
Current share price = 1.5p
Net cash at end of June = 3.8p
Cash burn over the year = 0.9p|
|they will probably merge with TRP who are masters at squandering investors' cash|