|Quite. The other thing that could have a big effect here is Tullow are aiming to drill a well offshore Namibia in early 2017. No news on that as yet though.|
|....and just a reminder on scale: there are at least three prospects on the Namibian blocks, each of which are reckoned to be in the 1bn+ bbl area:http://www.globalpetroleum.com.au/operations/namibiaNow they may well need more work before they would be considered drillable by a major, but a major could currently take over the whole company for, say, 6p per share and shoot 3D seismic over the Namibian blocks for a total net expenditure (including the acquisition and the seismic) of perhaps $12mn?....which doesn't sound a great deal for obtaining potential control and drilling options over 3bn+ bbls of oil in a rising oil price environment?|
|Its worth considering where we are, given the length of time we've been waiting for a deal:1. there is still 4p per share in cash2. two years ago they wrote down the Namibian asset by $11mn, due to drilling disappointments nearby and the weak oil price. They have since done more interpretation work there and, in any case, have different plays. If the oil price is on the cusp of recovery (which the Saudis think will be largely completed by 2018), then it may make sense for a partner to come in now and drill before services prices rise again.3. the Peters are not getting any younger and have some significant cash tied up still, which is slowly being bled away4. In terms of international risking of oil and gas assets, I'd suggest that South-West African offshore has moved up the pecking order relative to the Middle East, EU and USA in the last year or so.It still remains the case that oil and gas financing is difficult. But if next month's OPEC meeting is bullish (as some now suspect it may be) then a deal to buy the whole company and drill Namibia next year doesn't seem impossible to me......but then I haven't seen the details of the prospects.|
|You can't say the directors are bleeding the company dry!
But many do. This has been going on for rather a long time.|
|JoeStalin3 Oct '16 - 11:59 - 5525 of 5526 1 0
I think that Mr Market knows exactly what they are doing.
Peter Blakey has 41.5 million shares (approx 20.5%). Annual salary is $37,000
Peter Taylor has 39.5 million shares (approx 19.5%). Annual salary is $37,000
You can't say the directors are bleeding the company dry! In fact they are the biggest losers.
As an aside the £/$ exchange rate is doing us a favour here.|
|the cash will dribble away
no interest in namibia or italy at present prices
they need new blue sky|
|I think that Mr Market knows exactly what they are doing.|
|No comment on results last week?
Admittedly not much to report. We may have some 2D sesimic to look forward to next year on Namibia. And same on the Italian licences if they ever get awarded (I hope not). Exciting stuff indeed.
The current share price implies Mr Market thinks they don't know what they are doing.
Current share price = 1.5p
Net cash at end of June = 3.8p
Cash burn over the year = 0.9p|
|they will probably merge with TRP who are masters at squandering investors' cash|
|Every project needs funding...but I am not thinking that GBP will acquire - I am thinking they will be bought out for their cash (with shares, probably). That being the case, the issue for the Peters is what stake their 40%+ will buy them in the combined entity. And at what effective price?
Needs to be a big premium to current levels if they are to get value for the cash....|
|Must say I'm having difficulty imagining any kind of deal this shower can do that makes commercial sense with oil at $50. As you say they need to acquire assets AND raise funding at the same time. But who is going to sink a significant amount of money into an O&G outfit with the oil price this low? Massively risky surely? The smart move would have been to slash costs and become an investment type vehicle and just buy shares in bombed out, but well funded, oil stocks. Not holding my breath here, just hope they wind it up soon.|
|Much too hard, I think. They will have looked at plenty of situations but, as stated in the interim report, the question of follow-on finance is likely to have been moot in most of them. They may also not have been sufficiently pro-active in digging out attractive situations or perhaps engaged enough to close the potential deals that have actually crossed their threshold.And I also suspect that they have been a little too risk averse - and perhaps too greedy, especially regarding control.But ultimately the 40% shareholders should be relied upon to act in their own interests, and so in the interests of shareholders as a whole. And in my view that means they will recognise that time is running out to get a decent deal done - the market is on the cusp of moving away from them and, thanks to having seen much of the market firsthand, they should be very well aware of that. I would be quite surprised if they don't change their message on deal-doing very soon.|
|I agree with all of that, but my confidence in the board ever lifting a finger has waned to zero.|
|Time for a deal, surely?
The 2016 Annual Report is due next month, covering the period to end June.
This is what the half-year report in March had to say:
We believe that the Company has been vindicated in its strategy of de-emphasising frontier exploration, and of being highly selective regarding the type and quality of the assets which might be potential additions to the Company’s portfolio. The Board first adopted this strategy in mid-2014, prior to the slide in the oil price which has now continued for 18 months.
It is our belief that it will be very challenging for the smaller Exploration and Production companies to make progress in a large proportion of the exploration licences which they have acquired, in Africa and elsewhere, over the last few years. The frontier acreage secured is often of variable quality, and many of the companies which hold it do not have the funds to carry out even early-stage exploration operations. Moreover, the larger independents and majors who would normally be expected to farm-in to fund drilling have cut their exploration budgets to significantly lower levels – and when they do return with the impetus of an improvement in the commodity price, they can be expected to be highly selective with regard to exploration opportunities.
Whilst it is frustrating that the Company has not yet completed a transformative deal, we would reassure shareholders that we have been very active in discussions with potential counterparties. Our available cash puts us in a very strong position compared to many of our peers, but the ability to raise further funds from conventional market sources is extremely limited. This is a major inhibiting factor in our evaluation of opportunities, which often require further capital either as a component of, or immediately post an acquisition.
Many of our peers and some larger companies have little remaining cash and limited access to new finance, and a significant proportion also have debt. This being the case, we expect to have no shortage of potential counterparties with whom to engage.
....I have highlighted in bold the aspect that I think has started to change in the last few months (as evidenced by a number of fund-raisings and strategic deals over the summer). Indeed, there are a number of companies that have seen significant share price rises as access to capital has improved. It is still not "an easy market" for companies to raise funds - but, for the sort of projects that GBP have been targeting, there is significantly more interest from institutions than there was in Q1 2016.
If GBP don't do something in the coming months they may just as well wind up. But I am expecting them to do something, at last, before their cash pile depletes much further and they lose all negotiating power.|
|Alliance Aviation Services up 7.56%
Yesterday up 3.5%
Day before up 2.5%|
|I hope that today's news from AEY doesn't go unnoticed by the GBP board. If they can't get a deal done, its time to wind up! AEY up 35% today so far.....|
|Alliance Aviation Services up 7.56% overnight
Day before up 3.5%
Day before up 2.5%|
|I was looking back at previous results statements. This is what they said 2 years ago in the results to June 2014
"...The Company has reviewed a wide range of potential new opportunities and the process remains ongoing. Global remains well capitalised which provides a position of strength compared to many of its peers and the Board is ready to commit a significant portion of this capital to a suitable new opportunity or opportunities, but only if they believe such are likely to significantly enhance shareholder value..."
Sound familiar? I bet they are still telling us how well capitalised they are compared to their peers when they are down to their last half million!|
|Quite happy they've stopped paying the directors partly with shares
Sorry HP You really still don't get it - a)If the price goes down thev are out of pocket and b)the company has less cash to do a deal - you talk as if they get the shares for nothing .|
|Quite happy they've stopped paying the directors partly with shares though. It was a pay rise by any other name.
Agree they more or less just cut and paste the same stuff every quarter. All the stuff they say they are working on is at such an early stage you wonder how they can justify the cash burn. Any value they think they are adding is questionable at best. Time to wind this business up.|
|....or perhaps it was a complication that has met its purpose and is now getting in the way? I notice that the share scheme has also been dropped. It seems to me that the market for financing projects is on the cusp of some improvement, with a number of funds becoming more engaged in searching out projects that stack up at current price levels...... so if they don't get something done soon they could find they've missed their best opportunities to obtain maximum leverage and best terms.|
|1.Cut and paste rinse and return.
2.Post the end of the reporting period, the Board of the Company resolved with effect from 1 August 2016 to discontinue the reduction in the cash element of the compensation of the Board announced in July 2015, which has been in place for one year.
You couldn't make it up - so much for the importance of retaining cash.|
|we're due quarterly results this month.|
|Not really. They started, built and sold companies. They may have a different risk appetite now, but they haven't forgotten how to do deals. And, as importantly, continuing to do nothing indefinitely will cost them a serious amount of money, given their 40%+ stake. At some point, a deal has to be done that realises at least the cash value.|
|I think you should put the word "entrepreneurs" in inverted commas like I have done.|